The Yellow River Basin: The New Year Is Approaching, And Cotton City Is Moving Forward In Anxiety.

With the coming of the new year, the three main players of cotton, cotton and textile enterprises are in deep anxiety. This atmosphere continues to spread, affecting the next year's market.

　　 Cotton grower

Recently, there are more rainfall in the Yellow River basin, but uneven distribution. Among them, Cangzhou, Baoding, Hengshui and other places in the central and southern parts of the country had more rain in the early stage, and partial hail, and 30% of the peach was hard to protect. The output was expected to remain at the level of 2013, and the proportion of white cotton would be reduced. The rainfall is moderate in Northwest Shandong and Northern Shandong. Cotton is growing well now. Cotton growers expect cotton seed output to be 480-500 Jin / mu in 2014 and white cotton ratio not less than 60%. Due to the decrease of cotton planting area, it is estimated that the probability of cotton production increase in the Yellow River river basin is less in 2014.

In 2013, seed cotton prices in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other places were generally 3.90-4.50 yuan / Jin. It is understood that more than 60% cotton growers in 2014 believed that the price would be 3.30-3.80 yuan / Jin, while a few pessimistic people thought that the cotton farmers in the 3.00-3.50 yuan / Jin were less than 10% yuan in the price of seed cotton more than 4 yuan / Jin. It is estimated that seed cotton will be run at low price in 2014, so cotton growers will lose their profits by raising prices.

　　 Cotton enterprises

By the end of July, Shandong, Hebei and other places were less than 10% of the enterprises in Xinjiang, and about 15% of them were stopped. Most of the ginning plants chose to buy and process locally. On the one hand, cotton production in the mainland is greatly reduced and production is reduced. On the other hand, there are not many "ghosts" in the ginning plant. At present, the competition between the cotton ginning plants has already started. First, compete for resources by booking seed cotton; the two is to seize the 200 type ginning plants, and advance the nets in advance; the three is to lock the sales targets and reach an agreement with the surrounding small and medium-sized textile enterprises.

Most of the ginning mills believe that the new cotton price in the new year is slightly higher than that in Xinjiang at 16000-17000 yuan / ton. The profit space will be further compressed, and it will basically remain at 400-600 yuan / ton in 2013. In 2014 or only 200-300 yuan / ton, most enterprises will lose money, and a small number of enterprises can survive.

　　 Spinning enterprises

At present, there are four main sources of cotton for textile enterprises, one is the national cotton store. At present, state-owned cotton reserves are high and supply is adequate, but the quality of cotton can not meet the demand of textile enterprises. The two is imported cotton. Under quota restrictions, the supply of high-quality cotton is in short supply, and the quota price is higher and higher. The three is lint spot. There is basically no quality cotton in the market. The four is the futures market. Fewer warehouse receipts can hardly meet the demand of textile enterprises. It can be said that the textile enterprises in order to buy cotton that can meet the production needs of all costs, spinning enterprises believe that the free purchase of raw materials in the market is the prerequisite for the development of textile enterprises.

It is estimated that the advantage of Chinese textile enterprises will decline in the new year. On the one hand, there are few cotton resources in the mainland. On the other hand, Xinjiang textile enterprises have 500-800 yuan / ton subsidy, and mainland enterprises do not. Xinjiang is attracting investment from enterprises through policies, resources and other advantages. Southeast Asian region also attracts investment enterprises in terms of resources and labor force. Should quietly walk away, or go strong, part of the textile enterprises began to waver.

From this point of view, the main body of the cotton industry chain in 2014 is not easy, a kind of anxiety from the industry itself and policy is lingering. The industry's survival of the fittest has already started, who can win the final victory, or the new year will be seen.