Cotton Market Target Price Doubts, Many Rules Do Not Cotton Farmers Anxious

< p > the world is < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > a target= "_blank" href= "_blank".

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< p > recently, rumors about cotton's target price and market price have flowed again. The combination of area and output seems to let everyone see the signs of the rules.

But after careful reflection, the worries of all parties in the market are still fermenting. When can the decision of the market return to market? When can we put it into practice? < /p >

It is not practical to expect that the success of one step reform will not be realistic. However, the premise of making direct subsidy rules must be fair, just and open. If policymakers and target price makers are parties to a paction, then the reform of cotton policy will become a vanity fair for all parties to compete for "policy arbitrage". P

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< p > < strong > 19800 yuan / ton, the target price is doubting more than /strong > < /p >.

< p > 2014, after the end of the temporary purchase and storage policy, the cotton policy will be tried out in Xinjiang. The price difference between the target price and the market price will serve as the basis for the subsidy. The general direction of the reform is undoubtedly correct and also accords with the spirit of "Eighteen big" making the market a leading force in the allocation of resources.

The target price of 19800 yuan / ton has been set out, but how is this price introduced? Is it reasonable to estimate and demonstrate whether the 19800 yuan / ton is the price of the buyer or the seller?

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< p > target price announcement clearly stated that "target price policy is an agricultural support policy that protects producers' interests through differential subsidy based on the price of agricultural products in the market."

After the implementation of the cotton target price policy, the temporary purchase and storage policy should be abolished, and the producers will sell cotton at market prices.

When the market price is lower than the target price, the state subsidize the producers in the pilot area according to the difference between the target price and the market price, planting area, yield or sales volume, and when the market price is higher than the target price, the state does not grant subsidies.

The specific subsidy and distribution methods are formulated and published to the society in the pilot area. "

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< p > it is worth noticing that the "subsidy payment method" in the announcement is formulated by the pilot area and released to the public, but the formulation of the subsidy amount is ambiguous.

There is no doubt that the definition of market price depends on who defines the market price. If there is a differential subsidy according to the market price, there is another problem: the target price is only 19800 yuan / ton, but the market price is varied.

If the two parties are actually trading on a voluntary basis and have a formal tax registration invoice, you can say that 15000 yuan / ton is the market price. Is the 13000 yuan / ton not the market price? Who has the right to define and interpret is equal to the right to speak of the subsidy policy.

If an official organ is appointed to issue a "market price", the selling price and the purchase price will be "fixed" in advance.

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< p > < strong > market price difference. Who will pay for < /strong > < /p >

< p > since the government announced the target price of 19800 yuan / ton, cotton growers will take a decision. No matter who will pay the money in the end, the money can not be lower than the price anyway, otherwise it will not be sold.

But the question of who will pay the price difference in the market will not cause a lot of other problems, but will also affect the credibility of the management.

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< p > 2014/2015 cotton year implementation of the "storage and replacement" pilot, which clearly told the market, after the cotton do not send to the national warehouse, the state will not pay 19800 yuan / ton, and the national treasury cotton throwing reserve the bottom price is only 17250 yuan / ton (or even lower).

Therefore, the market price in the future will be below 17250 yuan / ton.

How can a country buy another 19800 yuan / ton? Unless the market price is again fired to more than 19800 yuan / ton, and this is almost impossible under the condition of massive domestic cotton stocks and low global cotton prices.

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< p > the price difference cotton spinning enterprise will not pay. The purpose of the existence of the enterprise is to maximize shareholder value within the framework of the law and buy high priced cotton, and shareholders do not agree.

The purchasing manager of a cotton mill in Jiangsu told me that the real market situation in recent years is that cotton prices have gone all the way. The actual price of the cotton purchased by factories is now dropping at a price of 50 yuan ~100 yuan per ton per day.

For example, cotton mills plan to purchase 200 tons of cotton, which used to purchase 200 tons at a time. Now, if they are divided into two purchases, that is, the first time to pick up 100 tons and second times to pick up 100 tons, the price of the second batches of cotton will be reduced by nearly 100 yuan per ton for about 2 days.

At present, downstream a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile > /a > factories generally refuse to hoard cotton stocks, but buy them according to production plans and orders.

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Less than P, traders will not pay. Global sourcing for traders has become a foregone conclusion.

And now the price of downstream products also appears "bread is cheaper than flour" phenomenon, for example, the price of 10 ring spinning is about 19500 yuan / ton, while the air spinning 10 selling price (raw cotton spinning) is about 18500 yuan / ton.

Trading companies basically rely on making "quick money" to survive.

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< p > < strong > rule is not urgent for cotton farmers. < /strong > < /p >

< p > early June, the arrival of a "timely rain" in Texas in the United States eased the drought in the cotton fields, and cotton grew very gratifying. The American cotton growers were naturally overjoyed.

But cotton farmers in China are disconsolate.

In 2014, cotton farmers in China did not know whether it was a blessing or a curse. They should have informed farmers about the policy of direct subsidy before planting them. The cotton in the field is growing very high, but the subsidy policy is still "just listen to the stairs, but do not see people down."

No one has told cotton growers the trend of cotton policy this year, and how much of the subsidy will actually get.

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< p > according to the data from the national cotton market monitoring system, the planting area of cotton in 2014 increased slightly except that of very few other provinces (Gansu). The planting area in other provinces decreased significantly. That is to say, cotton farmers have not been able to sustain their benefits of continuous cotton planting in recent years.

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< p > the implementation rules of target price have not been promulgated.

It is because the cotton farmers in the mainland dare not grow cotton on a large scale. Cotton growers worry that during the harvest season, if the official "market price" does not match the actual sales price of cotton farmers, this will trigger new problems.

Whether subsidized or not subsidized, rules should inform cotton farmers before planting.

Today, although the target price is available, the definition of official market price has not come out. The target price minus the market price is the basis of the subsidy. Without an unknown number, the equation can not be solved.

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< p > the bigger concern in the industry is whether the target price will soon become an upgraded version of the policy of "purchasing and storing - throwing and storing". Will the new policy be changed to a vest instead of "administrative intervention"? < /p >

< p > < strong > cotton growers, cotton enterprises, spinning enterprises, three parties are difficult to complete, < /strong > < /p >.

In the era of temporary purchase and storage, domestic cotton textile enterprises lost a large number of orders due to the quality and price of raw materials. < p >

In the era of target price, cotton planting and processing industry in China may lose a lot of cotton growers due to cost.

However, which price range will the cotton price fall to the satisfaction of both the seller and the buyer? Who has more market power?

< p > assuming that cotton prices fall at the rate of 50 yuan per ton per day, and drop by 18000 yuan per ton in 360 days, of course, it is impossible to judge by common sense, because the price of commodities can not fall to zero, and there is always a price in the middle which is acceptable to both buyers and sellers. The formation of the price is based on the market demand and supply and demand relationship at that time.

But the market is changeable, and there are many factors that affect the price of forward delivery month. Nowadays, the forecast of cotton market price in 2014/2015 is ranging from 15000 yuan / ton to 11000 yuan / ton, or even as low as 10000 yuan / ton.

If the market price is 15000 yuan / ton, this means 19800-15000=4800 yuan / ton subsidy, whether you like it or not, the future market will accept this valuation.

Cotton farmers do not accept it? That cotton textile enterprise went abroad to purchase.

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< p > How can management determine the method and quantity of subsidy in line with the actual situation? Whether the subsidy beneficiaries are cotton merchants or cotton growers? No matter how the management departments define the definition of "market price", a realistic question before us is if the international cotton market price falls to 60 cents ~65 cents per pound, how much will the state subsidize cotton farmers? How can they be filled? These doubts have not been clearly explained to cotton farmers before the spring sowing, especially the cotton farmers from outside Xinjiang.

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< p > in recent years, many small cotton textile enterprises in China have gone bankrupt, and cotton growers on the upper reaches will also be involved.

< a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > cotton > /a > and textile industry have a large number of employees. The number of enterprises involved is large. Cotton prices affect all aspects of the nerve.

The textile industry, which is in the downstream of the cotton industry chain, suffers from "three wastes and three high" hardships, namely, money shortage, electricity shortage, labor shortage, high cotton price, high inventory and high tax burden.

High cotton prices in China and imported high quality and cheap imported cotton yarns and grey fabrics have a great impact on domestic production enterprises, and textile enterprises are facing difficulties in their operation.

Industry insiders joked that today's cotton textile industry has become a "cock wire industry", selling cotton and selling cotton yarn colleagues everywhere in Tucao, not exclamation order, low price, is to publish meaningless price information online.

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< p > to smooth the smooth pition from reserve system to subsidy system, the industry calls on management to announce the market price and the implementation details of the subsidy as soon as possible based on the extensive consultation with the cotton enterprises concerned.

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