A Brief Comment On The Market Situation Of Ji Lu Yu Yarn (2014.8.11)

< p > > a href= "http://? www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton yarn < /a > aspects: Recently, domestic cotton spot price declines have slowed down, which has helped to stabilize the market of pure cotton products, but it can not change the situation of oversupply of cotton yarn at a time, and the pure cotton yarn Market is still weak. At present, the main quotation of JC40S is 28000-29000 yuan / ton, but the lower promotional price is only 27000-27500 yuan / ton. < /p >
< p > > a href= "http://? www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > polyester cotton yarn < /a > aspects: Recently, the price of polyester staple fiber is stable and collate, and its downstream products containing polyester products are generally sold, of which the pure cotton yarn market is still weak. At present, the mainstream trading price of Dahua T63/C35 32S polyester cotton yarn is 18500-19000 yuan / ton, and the higher price is 19500 yuan / ton. < /p >
< p > viscose yarn aspect: Recently, a href= "http://? www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > viscose staple fiber < /a > price is basically stable, most of its downstream products are stable and weak, among which viscose yarn price is weak. At present, the mainstream price of R30S viscose yarn is 16000-16500 yuan / ton, and the higher quoted price is 16500-17000 yuan / ton. < /p >
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< p > "cotton price rise may be an amendment to the early fall." Zawa Hirohito, general manager of the Industrial Development Co., Ltd., Cheung Kwok Keung, told reporters of the futures daily that the domestic cotton market had entered the transition period from "policy city" to "market city". During this period, the link between the new and old policies and how the new policy was implemented had a greater impact on cotton prices. < /p >
< p > at the same time, along with the advancement of cotton price marketization process, the market factors such as supply and demand of cotton market have also gradually increased the price. Therefore, the trend of cotton price is difficult to grasp. This is also the main reason for the increasing market concern about cotton price. < /p >
< p > Dong Shuangwei, general manager of Beijing DSW Cci Capital Ltd, told reporters that from the resources available for circulation in the domestic cotton market, first of all, after August 31st, the State Cotton store will stop selling, although the stock of national cotton reserves is huge, but after the selling is suspended, the pressure on stock prices will be reduced. Secondly, the quota of imported cotton is insufficient, and the cheap cotton in the international market is hard to flow into the domestic market. < /p >
< p > above three factors are concentrated, and coupled with the rigid demand of textile industry in the downstream from 9 to October, the imbalance of supply and demand in domestic cotton market is expected to increase. < /p >
< p > "in the early August, when the price of Zheng cotton fell to 14000 yuan / ton, the negative impact of policy adjustment was gradually weakened. In the new year's cotton prices straight subsidy rules have not yet been released, when the price of new and old cotton seeks to connect, the phased imbalance between supply and demand is expected to tilt the market to the long side, and cotton prices show a pattern of oscillation and uplink, and the volume can be dramatically enlarged." Dong Shuangwei said. < /p >
< p > aiming at the next cotton price trend, Dong Shuangwei suggested that investors pay close attention to the trend of international cotton prices, the domestic cotton price direct subsidy rules, and the trend of commercial hedging. He believes that the cotton price rise will not last too long, the domestic cotton market in the medium and long-term supply and demand contradiction is still an objective existence, cotton price volatility and frequency will further intensify. < /p >
Zhang Wenmin, general manager of cotton industry division of Wanda futures, said that the government of the new year will carry out a pilot project to subsidize cotton target price in Xinjiang area. It is understood that the target price of cotton is certain for a year. The central government has formulated the target price of lint cotton, and the local government has formulated the target price of seed cotton according to the price of lint. The target price of cotton is 19800 yuan / ton this year. < /p >
Less than P, what is more noteworthy is that after the adjustment of domestic cotton market policy, the price of imported cotton and domestic cotton fell sharply, and domestic cotton prices fell more deeply. Whether the government will restart the acquisition of the market and what price to restart the takeover market is the key factor to decide the future cotton price rise and fall. < /p >
< p > reporters learned from market research that many market participants believe that the introduction and implementation of new cotton policies and the appearance of effects are a long-term process. The old and new policies are currently having an impact on the market. At the same time, the cotton planting area has been reduced by about 15% this year, and the enthusiasm of cotton farmers in the mainland has been weakened, as well as the recession of the textile industry. In the transition period of Cotton City, the impact of policy and market on cotton price is equal. < /p >