Cotton Market Performance Is Still Empty.

Faced with the current cotton prices, the industry believes that the maximum pressure on domestic cotton spot pressure will appear after November, when the textile enterprises have finished the storage, cotton enterprises have no market, and imported cotton and imported yarn are coming into the market. Once the price is loosened, the pressure of maintaining the value of cotton enterprises will be greater.

Now, the decline of futures is only a matter of anticipation, and the collapse of real momentum is coming.

"From September to November will be the seed cotton price during the implementation of the target price subsidy. The price of seed cotton purchase should be out. The first day of trading in September has given the direction and the next target is 13000 yuan.

At present, 14000 yuan, sporadic scale, the price is so low, the market will maintain wait-and-see.

Cotton spot traders Zhang told the China Times reporter that the market will not improve in the short term.

Zhang believes that if the price goes down three hundred or four hundred points, cotton farmers will sell less, and the ginning factory will not be able to get rid of it.

If the price goes down again, the stalemate waits for a long time, and people will lengthen the break schedule. This is the risk point.

In addition, at this point in time, Xinjiang's ginning plants will, of course, do their best to lower the price. In fact, the peasants will only take more, less and less.

However, enterprises are different. Enterprises must take all risks. Of course, the lower the price, the smaller the risk. The only worry is whether the policy will change again.

According to the relevant officials of the cotton net, the cotton planting area will be further reduced next year without subsidies.

The wind cotton net suggests that the relevant departments should pay attention to the cotton area of the mainland and the income of cotton farmers in the case of Xinjiang cotton area.

Pilot direct subsidy is a good thing, reducing the price difference between inside and outside cotton area, reducing the cost of cotton production by textile enterprises, is conducive to the development of textile enterprises.

The key lies in the implementation of relevant departments in the direct subsidy process. It should be unified and cannot be practising malpractices and fraud in the process of direct subsidy.

According to the press, Wucheng, Shandong Province,

Most cotton fields in Dongying, Xiajin, Jining, Jinxiang and so on have begun picking new flowers, and the picking rate has reached 20% in some cotton areas.

Due to the relatively small amount of new flower listing and uncertain national policies, the market price trend is unpredictable, and the outlook is not optimistic, type 400.

It is generally a wait-and-see attitude that it plans to open the balance again in late 9 or later.

Dong Shuangwei believes that, as a whole, the supply of global cotton market has no worries this year, the demand is showing structural changes, and the supply and demand situation has been maintained. Especially in India, the planting area has reached a record of 180 million mu.

China has about 11 million tons of cotton reserves. Cotton production this year is better than previously expected.

All these, in the next season of the new cotton market in the northern hemisphere, constitute a big rebound resistance to the cotton market.

He believes that in combination with China's implementation

The policy of reform and the gradual narrowing of the price difference between cotton and domestic products is a necessary process. At the same time, considering the strict supervision of China's cotton import quotas, although domestic cotton prices have experienced a sharp decline this year, cotton prices are still lower than domestic cotton prices and there will still be downward pressure in the future. Domestic cotton prices are still facing a downward trend.

For the late trend of cotton prices, Galaxy futures analyst Chen Xiaoyan also believes that cotton prices continue to decline as a whole, combined with the supply and demand of cotton market and target price subsidy policy.

However, from the perspective of futures, the specific implementation rules of direct subsidy policy have different effects on different contracts.

Overall, the cost of circulation will increase as a result of the unified supervision of cotton that enjoys direct subsidy.

In addition, it is estimated that the progress of Xinjiang cotton entering the mainland may also be delayed. Xinjiang cotton has limited inflow as futures warehouse receipts. The 1411 contract and 1501 contract may be relatively stable due to the problem of warehouse receipts.

However, 1503 and subsequent contracts are under heavy pressure from the market, and there is still room for further downturns.