To Xiaotian: What Does The Fireworks Listed On Ali Cover?

　　 Alibaba The group landed on the New York Stock Exchange on the 19 day. Its total IPO raised amounted to US $25 billion. It has become the largest IPO project with the largest scale of financing in the world. At the same time, Alibaba's market capitalization has reached 230 billion dollars, becoming the second largest Internet Co after Google, and its market value exceeds the sum of BAT's other two Tencent and Baidu. Ma Yun himself climbed to the new richest man in mainland China with 150 billion yuan of personal assets.

Alibaba IPO has set off so many records that it is an important milestone in the capital market. At this time node, it is hard to recall the peak of the 2000 technology bubble when it saw such a violent scene. Generally speaking, smart companies are often in the market At the time of the most overvalued sale, the company is definitely a "smart company" before its performance in the capital market in the Alibaba.

Of course, Alibaba is not alone. In the summer of 1999, MP3.com, a newly established website, was listed on the website a month ago. The Pre-IPO website was valued at only $500 million, about $10 per share. After IPO's inquiry, the company set the price at an incredible $28. Even with such a high price, MP3.com even opened up at $92 on the day of its listing, and even climbed to $105 in the market. All of this is quite similar to the Alibaba IPO process. Alibaba has not yet established the opening price from the price of 68 US dollars to the New York Stock Exchange opened for 2 hours, creating the longest opening time of IPO in the NYSE in ten years. All this has almost surpassed the IPO boom in the tech bubble of 2000. However, the company that IPO was hot at the end of the year Be left over Not many.

After the collapse of the tech stock bubble in 2000, a widely circulated sentence in Wall Street was: "the stock of the greatest company in the world is rubbish. Even if all investors think these companies are the greatest companies in the world, they can not change the fact." Although it is undeniable that Alibaba is a good company, a good company cannot live without a big cycle. We can not speculate about the rise and fall of Alibaba's share price, but what we need to understand is that smart companies can always choose to issue stocks when the market is overvalued. History has fully proved this point.

Now, is the market overestimated? We can take a look at the data of the total market capitalization of the S & P 500 index and the ratio of us GDP. From the data point of view, this ratio is currently about 100%. This ratio is close to or more than 100%, only two times in history: one is 1999-2000 years of technology bubble, one is 2007-2008 years of subprime mortgage crisis. The excitement brought by Alibaba IPO to US stocks may mask some negative emotions in the market. The standard & Poor's 500 index is also looking for directions when both intra day and closing prices have reached record highs. In addition to the above ratio data suggesting that the market is overvalued, the market share Put/Call ratio and volatility index (VIX) are all showing the selling signals.

Alibaba is a great company, but buying stocks from great companies may not make money. Investors need to always bear in mind that investment is a rational act, not an emotional impulse.