Cotton Purchase "Warehousing And Public Inspection" Textile Enterprises Wait-And-See Atmosphere Strong

This year is the first year of the implementation of the national target price reform of cotton, which is related to the overall situation. The state has the ability and the means to maintain the normal market environment and make every effort to ensure the success of the pilot reform of the target price. On the morning of September 25th, the eight departments, such as the NDRC, were deployed according to the State Council. convene The "national cotton work teleconference", Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, made a speech entitled "guiding the stability of the market and anticipation of the new year's cotton work". At this point, the 2014 cotton policy and work arrangements are all in place.

According to the information released after the meeting, although the pattern of oversupply of cotton in the world has not fundamentally changed, the domestic policy and market environment has been clear: first, stop the cotton reserve and put aside space for the purchase and sale of new cotton. Two, we should arrange cotton imports rationally. In addition to issuing additional tariffs, the import quota will not be increased in principle. Three is to strengthen the supervision of the cotton futures market. While guiding cotton related enterprises to actively participate in cotton futures, we must crack down on speculation in the futures market. From 3 years to the market, Cotton grower There is an adaptation process to enterprises. Reporters interviewed learned that the overall situation of cotton output has been determined this year, and the domestic demand and demand situation is basically clear. The key is to solve the problem of confidence.

　 Cotton progress delay

In September, cotton farmers in Cha and special Township began to pick new cotton in Xinjiang and in the booksell County, 15 days later than in 2013. Compared with previous years, cotton picking progress slowed slightly. According to the latest survey of cotton reserves in China, the output of cotton is about 6 million 800 thousand tons this year, compared with that of last year's 7 million tons, while the US Department of agriculture predicted in September that China's cotton output will be about 6 million 400 thousand tons this year.

This year Early year Since the national development and Reform Commission officially launched the cotton target price reform pilot program and determined that the target price of cotton this year is 19800 yuan per ton, domestic cotton prices have entered a long-term downward channel. At present, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton is 14000 yuan / ton, far lower than last year's 18000 yuan / ton. In the futures market, the price of cotton main contract 1501 of Zhengzhou City has reached 16900 yuan / tonne at the beginning of this year. At present, it is only 12865 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 24%, which means that the cotton purchased by the State Reserve is at a loss.

"According to the recent field research on the domestic production area, the mainland's picking rate is expected to be no less than three or four. The proportion of hand picked cotton in Xinjiang is also around 30%. The cotton picking machine in Xinjiang has not been launched, and it will be the fastest after" eleven ". As a whole, the sown area in the mainland has dropped by about 30% this year, but the yield per unit area is better than in previous years, especially in the the Yellow River River Basin, Shandong and Hebei, while the cotton area in Xinjiang has increased steadily, and output has been flat last year. Dong Shuangwei, general manager of DSW consulting company, said in an interview with "China Times" that the output is stable at around 6 million 500 thousand tons this year and will not exceed 300 thousand tons.

It is understood that, in addition to a small number of small processing plants sporadic acquisition, the corps cotton has not begun to pick up a lot, because most of the corps are completed through mechanized operations, and the machine must wait more than 95% of the cotton mature, and cotton leaves fall after the machine can start mining. Therefore, it is expected that a large amount of exploitation will take place in early October. At the same time, coupled with mandatory "warehousing inspection", we have to delay about 10 days. The estimated time of processing cotton lint to the coastal textile mills will be delayed until mid 11.

"For the downstream cotton mills, previously thought that the state did not interfere with the price trend, it could go directly to the cotton producing area to purchase cotton raw materials according to the demand of enterprises. It did not think that it would come out of a" warehousing inspection "policy, and the cotton trade had a lot of variables. This measure will not only delay the acquisition time of the new cotton, but also increase the cost by 300-400 yuan per ton. Wu Faxin, general manager of Greater China, Guangzhou city's import and Export Trading Co., Ltd., said in an interview with the China Times reporter.

Wu Faxin said that it is obvious that this additional cost will not be borne by downstream textile mills, which naturally needs cotton processing plants to digest themselves. This year, if the production of cotton bags is processed in the public inspection and processing plants, the first step should be sent to the supervised warehouses. Because the processing plants are concentrated in the same time period, this will inevitably result in a certain period of time. The cotton processing plants have to queue up for storage, and the processing plant will be delayed for a day. After the second step of storage, the public inspection can only be started. In this link, it is learnt that the past fiber inspection institutions should wait for the National Day holiday. That is to wait until October 9th to start the operation. The test results will take at least 8 days. The enterprises already in the warehouse will also face the problem of queuing inspection. The third step, after the inspection is completed, the group will be approved according to the test results, but in the warehouse group, it is bound to require a lot of manpower and material resources in the warehouse, and there will be a queue phenomenon.

"At present, the progress of seed cotton purchase is slower than in previous years. First, the direct subsidy rules have not been released yet. Two, the beginning of the policy is implemented. Cotton farmers generally have a heavy psychological wait and see, while the cotton ginning enterprises do not have the purchasing and storage protection. Under the background of the weak textile industry in the lower reaches and the ample supply of cotton this year, they are faced with huge market risks and are cautious in purchasing. Because of the protection of direct subsidy policy, Xinjiang cotton growers are not sensitive to the price, but they have doubts about whether they can implement the national policy thoroughly. At present, about 3 yuan of seed cotton purchase price in the mainland, some farmers may just keep the capital, and the rules of the mainland's quota subsidies have not come out, so they can not exclude the possibility of the mainland farmers reluctant to sell. Merchants futures cotton researcher Xiong Tao said in an interview with reporters.

　 Textile enterprises wait and see strong atmosphere

"Recently, in Nantong, Shaoxing, Guangdong and other traditional textile bases, there has been news of the running of the textile company boss. With the implementation of the new cotton policy in 2014, it is expected that this situation will continue. " Wu Faxin said in an interview with reporters.

Recently, at the 2014 summit of textile summit, when people were talking about how long it would take for the textile industry to pass the winter, Zhejiang's Tin long group said that the winter of the textile industry was just beginning. Wu Faxin disclosed that 2 years ago, Zhejiang Tian Chang Group is still the largest eddy spinning manufacturer in China. Now, chairman Wang is busy doing two things: reducing production and selling machines. In the case of large scale quotations, chairman Wang never saw Miss, and the ice bucket hung over the top of the textile industry has made the industry feel chill. Can people in the industry be able to survive when the ice water falls down?

"This year cotton trade and textile industry experienced a hard landing of cotton prices, which is unavoidable. If the domestic cotton price is not lower than the US cotton price, then the impact of foreign cotton and cotton yarn will naturally not be affected. Long pain is not as good as short pain. Only when prices fall down can we block the import of 2 million cotton yarn and then go out to seize the international cotton yarn textile market, so that we can store stocks for the national reserve cotton. Mr. Jiang, who has been engaged in cotton trade for a long time, told reporters that only by lowering the price this year and reducing the output of the world next year, can the cotton industry see the hope of increasing prices.

"At present, the raw material inventory of domestic textile enterprises presents a contradictory situation. On the one hand, short term resources are in urgent need of replenishment, and because of the implementation of the target price reform, the new cotton resource restricts the circulation time of new cotton objectively. On the other hand, short term spot prices, though falling, still maintain a higher water level than futures and the expected price will continue to decline sharply in the future. Dong Shuangwei said in an interview with reporters.

Dong Shuangwei believes that the overall textile enterprises do not use low-cost resources, basically in the 15000 yuan / ton, textile enterprises in addition to concern about the absolute price of cotton, but also concerned about the difference in cotton prices between inside and outside, from the absolute price point of view, if the late cotton price is around 14000 yuan, not to mention the 12000-13000 yuan price, the enterprises think it is acceptable, but on the other hand, we need to pay attention to the international market price, the internal and external spreads as a dynamic change value, within 2000 yuan, the enterprise can still accept, excessive price difference, for the increment of consumption still restricts.

In addition, China's cotton import volume will be reduced to 894 thousand tons (4 million 100 thousand packs) next year, which is the minimum tariff import quota promised by WTO. The US government predicted that China's imports of 2014/2015 crop will be 8 million packs per year, and that the planned import volume of China will be almost half of the estimated value of the US government. The 2014/2015 crop year began in August 1st. Affected by this news, the US ICE cotton prices fell.

In this regard, Xiong Tao believes that the direct impact of this decision is that the reduction of China's imports of cotton, the United States cotton is a direct and long-term bad. We can recall the imported cotton data of China in recent 3 years, namely, 5 million 340 thousand tons, 4 million 420 thousand tons and 3 million 70 thousand tons. This year, the US Department of Agriculture estimates that China's imports of cotton are 1 million 740 thousand tons. In addition, this year, US cotton production increased substantially compared with last year. At present, after the US cotton bottomed up above 60 cents, the probability of returning to the downward trend has been greatly strengthened. As to whether or not it will damage the interests of US cotton farmers, we need not worry that the United States has perfect subsidy measures for cotton farmers.

In addition, Xiong Tao also said that it is worth noting that this direct subsidy rule is slightly different. The first is to remove the two words of "bottom", and the two is to define "excessive cotton fall" as "domestic cotton price is substantially lower than the price of cotton". In accordance with the leadership of the NDRC, it is no longer necessary to issue additional quotas. The price of imported cotton is based on the quotas of 1% cotton quotas. We can calculate that in recent days, the quotations from cotton quotas outside the 1% quotas are near 12000 yuan / ton, and they are static prices. Referring to the futures main contract 1501, the recent price is slightly below 13000 yuan / ton. At least, the price policy will not interfere at present, and the futures price will still have a downward trend.