The Wait-And-See Atmosphere Of Textile Enterprises Is Strong.

"Recently, in Nantong, Shaoxing, Guangdong and other traditional textile bases, there has been news of the running of the textile company boss.

With the implementation of the new cotton policy in 2014, it is expected that this situation will continue. "

Wu Faxin said in an interview with reporters.

Recently, at the 2014 summit of textile summit, when people were talking about how long it would take for the textile industry to pass the winter, Zhejiang's Tin long group said that the winter of the textile industry was just beginning.

Wu Faxin disclosed that 2 years ago, Zhejiang Tian Chang Group is still the largest eddy spinning manufacturer in China. Now, chairman Wang is busy doing two things: reducing production and selling machines. In the case of large scale quotations, chairman Wang never saw Miss, and the ice bucket hung over the top of the textile industry has made the industry feel chill. Can people in the industry be able to survive when the ice water falls down?

"This year cotton trade and textile industry experienced a hard landing of cotton prices, which is unavoidable. If the domestic cotton price is not lower than the US cotton price, then the impact of foreign cotton and cotton yarn will naturally not be affected.

Long pain is not as good as short pain. Only when prices fall down can we block the import of 2 million cotton yarn and then go out to seize the international cotton yarn textile market, so that we can store stocks for the national reserve cotton.

Mr. Jiang, who has been engaged in cotton trade for a long time, told reporters that only by lowering the price this year and reducing the output of the world next year, can the cotton industry see the hope of increasing prices.

"At present, the raw material inventory of domestic textile enterprises presents a contradictory situation. On the one hand, short term resources are in urgent need of replenishment, and because of the implementation of the target price reform, the new cotton resource restricts the circulation time of new cotton objectively.

On the other hand, short term spot prices, though falling, still maintain a higher water level than futures and the expected price will continue to decline sharply in the future.

Dong Shuangwei said in an interview with reporters.

Dong Shuangwei believes that the overall textile enterprises do not use low-cost resources, basically in the 15000 yuan / ton, textile enterprises in addition to concern about the absolute price of cotton, but also concerned about the difference in cotton prices between inside and outside, from the absolute price point of view, if the late cotton price is around 14000 yuan, not to mention the 12000-13000 yuan price, the enterprises think it is acceptable, but on the other hand, we need to pay attention to the international market price, the internal and external spreads as a dynamic change value, within 2000 yuan, the enterprise can still accept, excessive price difference, for the increment of consumption still restricts.

In addition, China's cotton import volume will be reduced to 894 thousand tons (4 million 100 thousand packs) next year, which is the minimum tariff import quota promised by WTO.

The US government predicted that China's imports of 2014/2015 crop will be 8 million packs per year, and that the planned import volume of China will be almost half of the estimated value of the US government. The 2014/2015 crop year began in August 1st.

Affected by this news, the US ICE cotton prices fell.

In this regard, Xiong Tao believes that the direct impact of this decision is that the reduction of China's imports of cotton, the United States cotton is a direct and long-term bad.

We can recall the imported cotton data of China in recent 3 years, namely, 5 million 340 thousand tons, 4 million 420 thousand tons and 3 million 70 thousand tons.

This year, the US Department of agriculture predicts cotton in China.

It's 1 million 740 thousand tons.

In addition, this year, US cotton production increased substantially compared with last year.

At present, after the US cotton bottomed up above 60 cents, the probability of returning to the downward trend has been greatly strengthened.

As to whether or not it will damage the interests of US cotton farmers, we need not worry that the United States has perfect subsidy measures for cotton farmers.

In addition,

It is also worth noting that this direct subsidy rule is slightly different.

The first is to remove the two words of "bottom", and the two is to define "excessive cotton fall" as "domestic cotton price is substantially lower than the price of cotton".

In accordance with the leadership of the NDRC, it is no longer necessary to issue additional quotas. The price of imported cotton is based on the quotas of 1% cotton quotas.

We can calculate that in recent days, the quotations from cotton quotas outside the 1% quotas are near 12000 yuan / ton, and they are static prices.

Referring to the futures main contract 1501, the recent price is slightly below 13000 yuan / ton. At least, the price policy will not interfere at present, and the futures price will still have a downward trend.