Textile Enterprises Pay Attention To Cotton Price "Ice Bucket" Effect

This year is the first year of the implementation of the national target price reform of cotton, which is related to the overall situation. The state has the ability and the means to maintain the normal market environment and make every effort to ensure the success of the pilot reform of the target price. On the morning of September 25th, in accordance with the plan of the State Council, the eight departments of the national development and Reform Commission and other departments held the "national cotton work teleconference". Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, made a speech entitled "guiding the market to stabilize the market and anticipate the new year's cotton work". At this point, the 2014 cotton policy and work arrangements were all ready.

According to the information released after the meeting, although the pattern of oversupply of cotton in the world has not fundamentally changed, the domestic policy and market environment has been clear: first, stop the cotton reserve and put aside space for the purchase and sale of new cotton. Two, we should arrange cotton imports rationally. In addition to issuing additional tariffs, the import quota will not be increased in principle. Three is to strengthen the supervision of the cotton futures market. While guiding cotton related enterprises to actively participate in cotton futures, we must crack down on speculation in the futures market. From 3 years to the market, cotton growers and enterprises have an adaptation process. Reporters interviewed learned that the overall situation of cotton output has been determined this year, and the domestic demand and demand situation is basically clear. The key is to solve the problem of confidence.

In September, cotton farmers in Cha and special Township began to pick new cotton in Xinjiang and in the booksell County, 15 days later than in 2013. Compared with previous years, cotton picking progress slowed slightly. According to the latest survey of cotton reserves in China, the output of cotton is about 6 million 800 thousand tons this year, compared with that of last year's 7 million tons, while the US Department of agriculture predicted in September that China's cotton output will be about 6 million 400 thousand tons this year.

At the beginning of this year, since the national development and Reform Commission officially launched the cotton target price reform pilot program and determined that the target price of cotton this year was 19800 yuan per ton, domestic cotton prices entered a long-term downward channel. At present, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton is 14000 yuan / ton, far lower than last year's 18000 yuan / ton. In the futures market, the price of cotton main contract 1501 of Zhengzhou City has reached 16900 yuan / tonne at the beginning of this year. At present, it is only 12865 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 24%, which means that the cotton purchased by the State Reserve is at a loss.

"According to the recent field research on the domestic production area, the mainland's picking rate is expected to be no less than three or four. The proportion of hand picked cotton in Xinjiang is also around 30%. The cotton picking machine in Xinjiang has not been launched, and it will be the fastest after" eleven ". As a whole, the sown area in the mainland has dropped by about 30% this year, but the yield per unit area is better than in previous years, especially in the the Yellow River River Basin, Shandong and Hebei, while the cotton area in Xinjiang has increased steadily, and output has been flat last year. Dong Shuangwei, general manager of DSW consulting company, told reporters that as a whole, the output is stable at 6 million 500 thousand tons this year and will not exceed 300 thousand tons.

It is understood that, in addition to a small number of small processing plants sporadic acquisition, the corps cotton has not begun to pick up a lot, because most of the corps are completed through mechanized operations, and the machine must wait more than 95% of the cotton mature, and cotton leaves fall after the machine can start mining. Therefore, it is expected that a large amount of exploitation will take place in early October. At the same time, coupled with mandatory "warehousing inspection", we have to delay about 10 days. The estimated time of processing cotton lint to the coastal textile mills will be delayed until mid 11.

"For the downstream cotton mills, it was thought that the state would not interfere with the price movements, so that cotton could be purchased directly from the cotton producing areas according to the needs of the enterprises. raw material I do not think there will be a "warehousing policy", the cotton trade has changed a lot. This measure will not only delay the acquisition time of new cotton, but also increase the cost per ton by about 300-400 yuan. Wu Faxin, general manager of Greater China, Guangzhou import and Export Trading Co., Ltd., said in an interview with reporters.

Wu Faxin said that it is obvious that this additional cost will not be borne by downstream textile mills, which naturally needs cotton processing plants to digest themselves. This year, if the production of cotton bags is processed in the public inspection and processing plants, the first step should be sent to the supervised warehouses. Because the processing plants are concentrated in the same time period, this will inevitably result in a certain period of time. The cotton processing plants have to queue up for storage, and the processing plant will be delayed for a day. Only after the second step is put into storage can we start sampling. Public inspection In this link, it is learnt that the past fiber inspection institutions should wait until the National Day holiday. That is to wait until October 9th to start the operation. The test results will take at least 8 days. The enterprises already in the warehouse will also face the problem of queuing inspection. The third step, after the completion of the inspection, will be approved according to the results of the test, but in the warehouse group, it is bound to require a lot of manpower and material resources, and there will be a long queue.

"At present Unginned cotton The purchase progress is slower than the previous year, first, the detailed rules and regulations are delayed, two is the first year of policy implementation, the cotton farmers generally look more psychological, and the rolling enterprises have no storage protection, in the downstream textile weak, this year, under the large cotton supply margin, facing huge market risk, the purchase is more cautious. Because of the protection of direct subsidy policy, Xinjiang cotton growers are not sensitive to the price, but they have doubts about whether they can implement the national policy thoroughly. At present, about 3 yuan of seed cotton purchase price in the mainland, some farmers may just keep the capital, and the rules of the mainland's quota subsidies have not come out, so they can not exclude the possibility of the mainland farmers reluctant to sell. Merchants futures cotton researcher Xiong Tao said in an interview with reporters.