Stable Economic Growth Is At A Reasonable Interval.

Chen Zhongtao, the China Logistics Information Center, analyzed the data. He said that from the main sub index, the index of production and new export orders has risen, the employment index has been flat, the finished product inventory index has dropped, and the PMI index of large and medium-sized enterprises has steadily increased.

Combined with the first two months, the average PMI index in the three quarter was 51.3%, slightly higher than the first half of this year and the same period last year. It shows that the three quarter's economic operation is basically stable, and the growth rate is still in a moderate and reasonable range.

First, the overall demand is good.

The new order index has stabilized and the fluctuation has narrowed by 0.8 percentage points from last month, maintaining a relatively high level of above 52%.

The new export orders index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.2% after a brief fluctuation last month, indicating a steady upward trend in exports.

From the seasonal rule, the fourth quarter is the peak of foreign trade orders, driven by Western Christmas holidays.

Since the beginning of this year, the world economy has been continuously improving, and the US economy has continued to recover. The euro area and Japan's economy are slowly going out of the trough, and the external demand is basically stable. In addition, a series of export facilitation policies in China are gradually landing.

Driven by holiday effect, domestic consumption demand will also be stronger in the fourth quarter.

Towards the end of the year, investment projects will generally accelerate in order to achieve annual progress.

Two, the real economy activity is steadily rising.

Finished product inventory index experienced a 3 consecutive month of rise and then fell, down 0.9 percentage points, to 47.2%.

Finished product inventory declined, bringing some room for the recovery of production activities.

The production index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 53.6%.

The recovery of large enterprises is obvious, and its production index has reached over 55%, an increase of more than 1 percentage points.

Especially from the perspective of the development of the industry, the new orders and production indices of non-metallic mineral products such as cement and railway pport equipment increased significantly, indicating that the supporting role of infrastructure investment in economic growth in the later period is expected to be enhanced.

Three, the business situation is stable and good.

According to our survey, "insufficient orders, tight funds and rising costs" have always been the main problems that perplexed the production and operation activities of enterprises.

The rising cost, especially the rising labor cost, has certain rigidity and is hard to change in the short term.

But with the steady growth of demand in the four quarter, with the direction of loose

The role of the order, lack of funds or tight situation will change.

In September, the PMI index of large and medium-sized enterprises steadily increased, indicating that the four quarter business situation is expected to achieve stability.

But from

There is still a downward pressure on the economy.

The PMI index remained weak in September.

From the same period of history, performance has increased, and this month has just ended.

In particular, the new orders index fell for the two consecutive month, down again to the same level of the same period of last year. The purchase price index has experienced a 4 month rally and has dropped to 50% in the last two months.

In addition, after a number of supporting policies have been launched, the PMI index of small businesses remains low.

From these circumstances, the foundation of economic stabilization needs to be consolidated.

The recent executive meeting of the State Council has been another important move to maintain steady growth by deploying and perfecting the accelerated depreciation policy of fixed assets, promoting technological pformation of enterprises and supporting SMEs' entrepreneurship.

Improving the policy of accelerated depreciation of fixed assets is not only conducive to accelerating investment and upgrading of enterprises, but also promoting short-term technological development and accelerating industrial upgrading.

Supporting small and medium enterprises' entrepreneurship can not only increase effective supply, but also create new demand.

Efforts should be made to strengthen the implementation of policies so that all the policies and measures that have been put into effect will play a combined force and effectively form an effective support for economic growth and ensure stable and healthy economic operation in the four quarter.