The Fed'S Record Is Hard To Change.

Overnight market: on Tuesday, the financial data released by the US side had relatively limited market impact on the financial market, and the two Fed officials once again began to argue about raising interest rates. The US dollar index continued to follow a downward trend following the sharp fall Monday, with a drop of 0.3% in the trading day and 85.70.

On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast for the third time this year, which has depressed the risk preference of investors and the Japanese yen with the risk aversion has benefited greatly.

Meanwhile, the words of the president of the Bank of Japan, Kuroda Higashihiko, also injected the Japanese yen into force. The yen became the star currency on Tuesday. The US dollar fell to 0.6% against the Japanese yen, at 108.08, while the euro fell 0.6% to the yen, 136.86, and so far this year, a drop of 5.5%.

Germany's industrial output fell sharply in the euro area, which strengthened the ECB's need for more stimulus measures to help forecast the euro zone economy, and the euro was also under pressure, but it still slightly strengthened relative to the US dollar role.

The precious metal market, stimulated by the risk of hedging, was at the same time as a small return on the dollar, with gold prices rising, and spot gold rose by $1.70, or 0.14%, to $1208.70 / oz.

Today's market paction: in the day market, China will announce important PMI data of HSBC services. At the same time, after the end of the National Day holiday, the Chinese market will return to the market, and the long-standing trading sentiment will stimulate the risk appetite.

At two o'clock in Beijing tomorrow (Thursday), the market will usher in the most important event this week. The Federal Reserve released minutes of the meeting.

Investors should keep an eye on the Fed's wording in the minutes.

In this way, we can find clues to the change of the Fed policy.

From the recent data, the economic recovery in emerging markets, Japan and Europe has slowed down, and only the US side is thriving.

Another driving factor for the recent strength of the US dollar index is mainly from the Fed's interest rate hike. Therefore, the minutes released by the Fed meeting on Thursday will undoubtedly become the focus of the market.

The US dollar has been on the high side for a long time, and the US dollar's continued upward trend in technology graphics has slowed down.

However, due to the obvious signs of economic recovery in the United States, QE is expected to officially end this month. The Fed's monetary policy is expected to return to normal gradually, and the US dollar will continue to rise.

The upcoming summary of the September monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve is expected to provide guidelines for foreign exchange market trends.

From the recent statements by the Fed officials, there are still differences within them.

During the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday, the two Fed officials were even more interested in the debate about raising interest rates or not.

In a public speech, Kocherlakota, the governor of the US Federal Reserve, pointed out that 2015 is not an appropriate time to raise interest rates.

If the Federal Reserve starts the cycle of raising interest rates, it must match 2% inflation target.

Loose monetary policy did not offset the legacy of the recession, and if inflation remained below 2% in 2015, the Fed should not raise interest rates.

Another Fed official, Dudley and Kocherlakota, had the opposite tone.

Dudley pointed out that even if the financial market may cause sharp reaction, the interest rate increase in 2015 will still have advantages outweigh its disadvantages.

Raising interest rates is good news. Even if the market will be affected, the US policy depends on economic data.

When opening interest rate cycles, the Federal Reserve has tools to maintain economic control.

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As for the September resolution, the market left is more uncertain about the direction of monetary policy.

The United States Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reiterated in its resolution September after the meeting that highly loose monetary policy is appropriate for a long time after the end of the asset purchase plan.

However, the dot chart showing interest rate forecasts also shows that the committee members have increased interest rates as a whole.

Obviously ahead of schedule.

Before the FOMC meeting in September, the market's expectations of the Fed's September policy meeting on the withdrawal of interest rate guidance guidelines for a long period of time were all over the top. But in the end, the Fed did not anticipate what the market participants would expect, and the details for this evening are likely to become the top priority again.

Review six weeks ago

The details show that Fed officials are dissatisfied with the forward-looking guidelines, and whether the words like "some" will become more extensive tonight, which is likely to be the key to the trend of the market.

Although the Fed's forward-looking guidance has not been revised, it has become an established fact, but if more officials believe that it should be revised in the future, it may still be seen as hawk's signal by the market, which is expected to benefit the US dollar.

On the contrary, if the minutes fail to reveal a more hawkish shift than the July, the US dollar callback is likely to continue.

But in general, the minutes will probably reflect the contents of our financial forecast in September, and most of the Fed decision makers will become more optimistic in reaching the Fed's data targets.

We expect that the US dollar will find its bottom after a period of profit taking.