Tian Hongliang: The US Dollar Will Not Change The Medium And Long Term Strong Pattern.

The US dollar index is hovering around 85.65.

After a 12 consecutive week of gains, the dollar index fell sharply on Monday, the biggest one-day drop in the year.

The US dollar index continued to moderate down on the previous trading day, and eventually fell down on the negative line. The intra Asia Pacific session is temporarily trading at the top of the 85.60 line.

The euro as a non US currency rebounded, mainly on the back of the dollar, although the German manufacturing orders slumped on Monday, the biggest drop since 2009, suggesting the risk of slowing economic growth in the euro area.

The pound / dollar also rebounded sharply on Monday. Yesterday, it continued to moderate the rally and reached a maximum of 1.6128.

USD / JPY fell sharply from the high point, and the last trading day further extended its downward trend, reaching a minimum of 107.82.

The Australian dollar / dollar also rebounded all the way from the 0.8640 low position, which rose sharply on the 2 consecutive trading days, reaching a maximum of 0.8832.

Overall, the first 2 trading days of the week showed a pattern: the US dollar withdrew sharply from its high position, rather than the United States rebounded sharply from its low position.

On the one hand, the market has been revised after experiencing last week's non-agricultural fluctuations. On the other hand, the weak performance of the latest labor market index (LMCI) released by the US in September has prompted the market to debate when the Fed will raise interest rates.

From a technical point of view, the dollar index yesterday rebounded after a sharp fall in strength, the closing price on the 5 day and the 10 day moving average, the strength of the dollar is a test.

From the weekly chart, the location of the 5 week EMA is 85.36.

If the weekly closing price is below 85.36, it means that the US dollar will continue to adjust, and the US index will have an opportunity to drop to around 85.

If the weekly closing rate is above 85.36, the US dollar will have the opportunity to end the callback order and continue to rise.

Today, the resistance of the US dollar index to short-term rise is 85.95 - 86, and the short-term resistance is 86.30 - 86.35.

The dollar index's support for today's callback is between 85.45 and 85.50, with significant support from 85.20 to 85.25.

The euro / dollar backed by 1.2500 rebounded sharply, with a short-term resistance of 1.2715 to 1.2720. If a breakthrough is achieved, the rebound will continue to 1.2740 to 1.2750, and the resistance at 1.2800 will still be limited.

The rebound rate.

The short term trend of the euro / dollar has not changed, and shorting after the rebound is still the main direction of our operation.

Today, the short line is mainly short selling, and the stop loss is broken. If there are more than 30 profit points, we will set a good stop to win. Before the opening of the United States, all the outstanding pactions will be withdrawn.

This strategy is suitable for margin and can be taken as a reference.

The US dollar index can be sold at the upper limit of the 86.00----85.25 interval, effectively breaking 30 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

US dollar: we can buy at the lower limit of the 1.2730---1.2630 interval, effectively break 40 points, stop the loss, and aim at the upper limit of the interval.

GBP / USD: it can be bought at the lower limit of the 1.6160----1.6050 interval, effectively breaking the 40 point stop loss, and the target is at the upper limit of the interval.

USD / CHF: it can be sold at the upper limit of the 0.9590----0.9520 interval, effectively breaking 30 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

USD / yen: it can be sold at the upper limit of the 108.40----107.40 interval, effectively breaking 40 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

Australian dollar / US dollar: it can buy at the lower limit of the 0.8870----0.8770 interval, effectively break 40 points and stop the loss, and the target is in the upper limit of the interval.

USD / Canadian Dollar: it can be sold at the upper limit of the 1.1190---1.1100 interval, effectively breaking 40 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

Gold: it can buy at the lower limit of 1215 - 1204, and effectively break $6.

Silver: it can buy at the lower limit of 17.45 - 17, and effectively break the position of 0.20 US dollars, and the target is in the upper limit of the interval.