Comment: Losing "The Biggest Surplus Country" Is Not Necessarily A Bad Thing.

According to the latest report of the International Monetary Fund, Germany has replaced China as the world's largest trade surplus country.

The German media had statistics that the German trade surplus reached $260 billion in 2013, while China's trade surplus was $195 billion.

Over the past 35 years, China has occupied the position of the world's largest trade surplus for more than 20 years.

Pushing China to this position is the result of many factors.

For example, joining the world economic division of labor system opens up the global market space for Chinese products; China has the world's most massive and low wage industrial workforce, and the demographic dividend has been maximized.

To a large extent, the trade surplus reflects not only the integration of China's economy with the world economy, but also the manufacturing capacity of China.

However, the trade surplus is also a double-edged sword.

China has been the largest trade surplus country in successive years, and China has been the world's largest number of anti-dumping and countervailing countries for many years.

The increase in trade friction has also led to a long-term appreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate.

Although RMB has appreciated more than 30% since the reform in 2005, it is still considered unreasonable by some trading partners.

A large trade surplus will not only bring about

The trouble will also cause trouble to the internal economic governance.

The larger the trade surplus, the more foreign exchange inflows. The foreign exchange settlement and exchange system determines that the central bank needs to issue RMB to purchase foreign exchange, thereby increasing the passive delivery of RMB and increasing inflationary pressure.

Excess liquidity also causes idle funds to focus on certain products, resulting in a price bubble.

More noteworthy is that China's trade surplus is mainly through low-end products.

Therefore, it is not the exchange between China's manufacturing technology and global valuation currencies, but the exchange of China's economic resources, human resources and global valuation currencies.

In the long run, this exchange is not equal and unsafe.

Long term complacency in the trade surplus will also hinder the pformation of the economic structure in an endogenous direction.

In the light of the pros and cons, lose "

The position is not necessarily a blessing. It is a crown without defending.

Of course, this does not mean that there is no need for a moderate trade surplus.

Moderate trade surplus is still the main means to achieve wealth accumulation in China.

Moreover, exports are still the most reliable pillar of economic growth and employment rate, despite the fact that domestic consumption demand has not been effectively boosted and the marginal effect of fixed investment has been diminishing.

Fundamentally speaking, the key lies in whether the trade surplus is reasonable, rather than the increase or decrease in the trade surplus.

The negative effects brought by the favorable balance of trade are the result of the exportation of the fishing industry.

In this regard, we must maintain export stability through increasing trade in services rather than relying too much on extensive trade in goods.

At present, the strategic concept of "one area and one belt" and the promotion of RMB project assets in the world are providing new opportunities for changing the way of trade surplus.