RMB Central Parity Continued To Rise Three Days After The Continued Appreciation Of Power Or Weakened

The renminbi will be stronger in the short term after being affected by the purchase of the foreign exchange market after the holiday.

The central parity of RMB against the US dollar has risen to a high level since mid September, and the exchange rate of RMB against the euro has also risen by 8.

Another reason for the relative strength of the renminbi relative to the US dollar is that the Fed's latest September policy meeting minutes show that the debate on how to explain the interest rate increase has been heated up by the Federal Reserve, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will focus on the risk of economic downturn and may be patient at the time of raising interest rates.

The US dollar has been hit by a recent blow to the dollar due to a cooling of the outlook for the US dollar rate hike, and the US dollar has been callback for three consecutive trading days.

Zhu Wenhao, deputy chief Trading Officer of easy faith foreign exchange, said that the US dollar is being adjusted unconsciously. The trend of US dollar strength has not changed. This short line callback will get important support in the 84 line.

Since May this year, the US dollar index has risen by 8% from 79, and has reached 86 highs.

He Jun, a senior researcher at Ampang consulting, believes that the rise in the US dollar trend is different from the previous fluctuations since the financial crisis. The driving force for us dollar growth comes from the differentiation of economic growth.

Since the beginning of this year, the differentiation of economic growth between the United States and the non US developed economies represented by Europe and Japan is very obvious.

From the macro data, the US unemployment rate in September was the lowest level since July 2008. The US Non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was strong in September, and the US trade deficit in August reached the lowest level since January this year.

In the first half of last year, Bernanke, who was then chairman of the US Federal Reserve, rushed out of QE.

Today, QE is completely out of the way and poses challenges to emerging markets.

In the case of a strong dollar return and global capital backflow, China also needs to prepare for a strong dollar.

The monetary policy committee of the people's Bank of China stressed at the three quarter regular meeting that the complexity of the situation should not be underestimated. It shows that monetary policy will still choose to respond to changes in the internal and external environment.

He Jun suggested, more flexible.

And better financial regulation will be the best haven for China's economy.

Secondly, as a big country with huge domestic demand, it is important to fully explore the importance of the Chinese market and make use of the Chinese market to retain capital, which is also an important step.

Another evasion

The measure of exchange rate fluctuation is RMB internationalization, which is also a way out of US dollar dependence.

While the US dollar continues to rise, China should be prepared to deal with a strong dollar to avoid the uncontrollable impact of exchange rate movements and capital flows on the domestic economy.

Since September 30th, the interbank

The renminbi will be traded directly against the euro.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce and international trade and economic cooperation, told reporters: "if the RMB does not exchange directly with the euro, the RMB exchange rate with the euro will easily become the shadow of the US dollar against the euro, which will increase the volatility of the exchange rate and make the allocation of resources easier to distort.

The direct exchange of RMB with the euro has largely reduced the external interference in the formation of the RMB and the euro exchange rate.

Xie Yaxuan, director of macro research at China Merchants Securities Research and development center, said that, judging by the internal and external situation, even if China's trade surplus widened in the short term, in view of the recent outflow of funds in the emerging markets and the significant decline in the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate within two weeks, the upward momentum of the renminbi will gradually dissipate.

Fudan University's Financial Research Institute recently released the "Fudan RMB exchange rate index three quarterly report 2014" report shows that due to short-term domestic and foreign economic situation, the RMB may appreciate or depreciate in a short period of time, but this unilateral fluctuation is not sustainable in the long run.

The report predicts that the fourth quarter of the RMB will continue to fluctuate slightly in the three quarter against the US dollar, and the appreciation will be smaller than the three quarter.