GDP Growth Should Reply To "Puffiness"

In fact, it is not the first time that China will become the world's largest GDP power.

As early as 2009, Angus Maddison, the most famous expert in textual research and analysis of economic history data, predicted that China could restore its status as the world's leading economy in 2015. By 2030, China's share of world GDP could increase to 23%, when China's per capita income will also exceed 1/3 of the world average.

The following year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) boldly predicted in a public report that the total GDP in China will surpass the US in 2016 and will become the "first year of the Chinese century" in 2016.

In May, the world bank said in its report entitled "the results of the 2011 International Comparison Project Summary" that the size of China's economy has reached 86.9% in the United States in 2011, more than doubling that of 2005, while the scale of China's economy will grow 24% from 2011 to 2014, while the US economy will grow by 7.6% only by 24%.

Accordingly, the scale of China's economy is likely to surpass the US this year and become the largest economy in the world.

Now it seems that more than all authoritative predictions, China's GDP become the world's first day has arrived ahead of schedule.

For the statistics of GDP in other countries, the international economic organizations including the world bank and IMF are currently adopting two methods: one is the exchange rate law, the other is the purchasing power parity method.

The exchange rate method is the conversion of the total economic amount measured by different monetary units in different countries into US dollars, and on this basis international comparison is made.

Because of its simplicity and intuitionistic conversion, the exchange rate law is universally recognized.

However, the exchange rate only reflects the monetary proportion relationship between goods and services in international trade, and does not consider the difference of price level among countries. At the same time, the exchange rate is also susceptible to various factors such as interest rate and politics, especially when the exchange rate changes considerably in a short time, which will lead to confusion among countries.

That's the case.

Launched

(PPP).

Purchasing power parity (PPP) is the price ratio between the commodity price and the same commodity price in the reference countries, that is, the quantity of goods that the units of the basic unit can purchase. The amount of the country's currency can be purchased in the comparison country, such as buying a hamburger in the US for one dollar, and buying 5 yuan in China, and purchasing power parity is 5.

Because the GDP of every country is built on the basis of the quantity of goods or services calculated by price, the GDP of the comparison country can be converted into GDP represented by a certain benchmark currency (such as US dollar).

The aforementioned famous scholars and authoritative institutions used the purchasing power parity method to calculate China's GDP.

Technically speaking, purchasing power parity not only overcomes the fatal flaw of exchange rate fluctuations, but also reflects the real cost of goods and services in different countries.

However, the premise of purchasing power parity is that the industrial structure and consumption structure of the countries are similar, labor productivity and terms of trade are the same.

At the same time, PPP has its own weaknesses, such as the lack of representativeness of selected commodities and services, the flexibility of collecting and processing price information, and overestimating the purchasing power of developing countries.

In fact, a well-known fact is that when measuring the economic scale of different countries, the results obtained by exchange rate method and purchasing power parity method are often very different.

If we use the exchange rate calculation, the global GDP in 2011 is US $70 trillion and 300 billion, and the purchasing power parity method is used to calculate the total amount of GDP in the world to reach US $90 trillion and 647 billion. According to the exchange rate method, the proportion of the middle-income economies in the global GDP volume is only 32% in that year. The purchasing power parity method is used to calculate the proportion of the world's total GDP to 48%. The exchange rate method shows that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 6.46 in 2011, and that of China's GDP is only 7 trillion and 300 billion US dollars, only 43% of the total US economy, while the proportion of the world's share is only 10.4%.

It is not difficult to find that, like the exchange rate law, the purchasing power parity law can not truly reflect the scale of a country's economy, and its final statistics can not be true.

Indeed, for more than 30 years

In the process, China is catching up with the economic growth rate of more than 10% per year. It is with the growth of GDP that we have the tremendous abundance of social products and the rapid development of the city.

However, the worship and blind pursuit of GDP also left a heavy and bitter impression on China's economic wheels.

Although China has surpassed the United States as the world's largest manufacturing country, China's manufacturing industry is still in the lowest manufacturing and manufacturing sector in the global industry chain's "smile curve".

Although China has surpassed Germany as the world's largest exporter, China has been the main target of anti dumping in the world in the past 10 years.

Although China's GDP is growing, it has paid a heavy environmental price for it.

According to the Research Report of China's environmental and economic accounting, in recent 10 years, the domestic ecological degradation cost accounts for more than 3% of the GDP in the year. At the same time, according to the "12th Five-Year plan", China's investment in environmental protection will reach 5 trillion yuan in the future.

Therefore, if all the cost of the governance environment is included in the GDP, China's GDP will shrink dramatically.

The ten thousand step is to say that even if China's GDP surpasses the United States and becomes the "world first", it can not change the fact that China's economy is backward.

Observing and comparing the ranking of GDP in the world in 2013, although China ranks second, China's GDP is far from the ninety-ninth place in the world per capita, while per capita income in 2013, China's per capita income is 6629 US dollars, which is lower than the world average.

It is important that the analysis report from University of Michigan shows that the gap between the rich and the poor has doubled in China compared to 30 years ago, and the Gini coefficient representing inequality has risen to an astonishing 0.55.

At the same time, China still has more than 200 million people living below the poverty line, equivalent to the total population of France, Germany and Britain.

Looking at such a depressing list, how can we receive GDP's "world first" award?