Shanghai And Hong Kong Do Not Have "Good" In Our Imagination.

Since the joint announcement of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Hongkong Securities Regulatory Commission in April this year, the preparatory period for 6 months is in the twinkling of an eye.

Although the regulatory authorities have always claimed that when the Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong started officially without a timetable, the recent news about Shanghai and Hong Kong's implementation in October was endless.

The coming sooner or later, Hong Kong and Shanghai have been placed high hopes by many investors, but I think it is not as good as we imagined.

Objectively, Shanghai and Hong Kong will provide a channel for "docking" between the mainland market and the international market, and can also be seen as a solid step towards the internationalization of the A share market.

As for Shanghai and Hong Kong through itself, there are many beneficiaries after implementation.

As of July 18th, 90 and 215 brokerages in mainland China and Hongkong have applied for participation in Shanghai and Hong Kong through pilot projects, respectively, accounting for 91% and 43% of the total membership of brokers in their respective markets.

A large number of securities companies actively participate in the pilot, is undoubtedly to divide into Shanghai and Hong Kong through a cup of soup.

In addition to brokerages, institutional investors such as funds will also benefit from it.

Shanghai and Hong Kong through the announcement of the news, the domestic sensitive fund has begun to study the introduction of Shanghai and Hong Kong through related products.

Mainland and individual investors can invest in the initial stage of Shanghai Hong Kong through trial.

The underlying stocks are 266, while Hongkong investors can invest in 500 stocks in Shanghai market, showing a significant "imbalance" between them.

But as a pilot, there are so many underlying stocks that are enough.

The obstacles facing Shanghai and Hong Kong are mainly due to the fact that the tax issue has not been well resolved. In addition, the Hong Kong stock market has set a threshold of 500 thousand yuan, which means that the vast majority of investors can only invest in Hong Kong stocks.

In fact, the launch of Shanghai and Hong Kong links is also concerned with what it can bring to the A share market. According to the joint announcement, the total amount of Shanghai Stock pass is 300 billion yuan, the daily amount is 13 billion yuan, the total amount of Hong Kong stock is 250 billion yuan, and the daily amount is 10 billion 500 million yuan RMB.

On the surface, the difference between Shanghai Stock Exchange and Hong Kong shares is 50 billion yuan, which is also considered by many people in the industry.

I will not agree with the reason that the net inflow will be brought to the mainland market.

The K-line chart shows that the correlation between Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares and Hongkong stock market trend is not high.

In the past few years, A shares continued to "bear hegemony" continue to decline, Hongkong's persistent index was higher, and A shares rose strongly in recent years, while Hong Kong stocks continued to fall.

Since the essence of capital is profit driven, since the Shanghai stock market has interconnected with the Hongkong market, which market has the "wealth effect" and the capital will flow into any market, then if the A share market performs strongly, Shanghai and Hong Kong will be shown to be a net injection of capital; if the Hong Kong stock market is stronger than the A share, then Shanghai Hong Kong will be shown as a net outflow of capital.

Therefore, even if there is a net difference between Shanghai Stock Exchange and Hong Kong stock exchange, it is not the reason why A shares will have net capital inflow.

On the other hand,

Although the market is more mature than A shares, its investor protection is also better than that of A shares, but it is by no means an investment "paradise". For example, its major shareholders play a lot. Because of the low threshold, large shareholders often use the way of "joint stock and equity offering" to refinance. If investors do not participate, they will often suffer huge losses.

The privatization of the Hongkong market is more common, and behind the privatization, investors' losses have long been doomed.

Moreover, if we invest in A shares, the investment in Hong Kong stocks will not work.

For example, A share investors are keen on investing in low price stocks, stocks and stocks, but the large number of "penny stocks" in the Hongkong market shows that low price stocks are the "outcast" of the market, and there is a huge risk in investing in low priced stocks.

Statistics from CICC show that the largest average value of the 30 largest A shares in Hong Kong stock market is 5%, while the average value of the small and medium capitalization shares is 46% for Hong Kong stocks.

After the launch of Shanghai and Hong Kong, these big blue chips share the possibility of closing to Hong Kong stocks.

However, due to limited volume, Shanghai Stock Exchange is unable to make waves in the market.

In fact, since the A share rose since July, the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges are only incentives. After the seven year bear market, the market itself rebounded strongly.

As the size of the problem is not troubled by the stock market, A shares into Daniel city is obviously a bit difficult.

Therefore, Shanghai and Hong Kong can not bring a bull market for A shares.