Monetary Policy Easing Will Intensify

Despite the double growth of new credit and M2 growth in September, the other two signals are not optimistic. First, after excluding the "rush hour" factor, M2 is still under the target of 13%. Two, the total amount of social financing decreased by 359 billion 800 million yuan in September, and the total amount of social financing in the first three quarters was 1 trillion and 120 billion yuan less than that of the same period last year. Although credit was not slow in the first three quarters, new loans increased by more than 404 billion 500 million yuan over the same period last year, but the total amount of social financing and M2 did not grow strongly. Behind this contrast, there is not only the impact of the downward demand of real estate and other industries, but also the impact of financial regulation, resulting in a 1 trillion and 230 billion yuan increase in trust loans. Therefore, increasing credit supply alone is not enough to achieve the goal of regulation and control. In order to ensure the financial needs of the real economy, monetary policy still needs to be intensified.

from international Look, the recovery of the euro zone is long and slow. With the main engine of the economy, the German economy is in the doldrums, the euro zone, which has already struggled to cope with weak economic growth and low inflation, is facing new risks. Data showed that Germany's industrial orders and output dropped sharply, and exports dropped sharply. Britain's CPI rate fell to 1.2% in September, the lowest level since September 2009. In September, the retail price index fell from 0.4% to 0.2%, and the annual rate dropped to 2.3%, the lowest level since November 2009. Economic recovery is slower than expected, forcing the euro zone to consider further easing measures.

The US economic recovery trend is more definite, but the data are also repeated. As the recovery of the euro area and emerging economies is slow, the US dollar will become capital again. Haven 。 There is also a need for further observation, as well as the backsliding of monetary policy between China and the United States. The differences in monetary policy between China and the United States will increase the fluctuation of capital flows and exchange rate fluctuations. At present, domestic and foreign spreads tend to narrow, the downward pressure on domestic economy is still in existence, the real estate market is down, and the expected differentiation of RMB exchange rate is not conducive to increasing foreign exchange holdings. It is worth noting that at the end of 9, the balance of foreign exchange reserves was US $3 trillion and 890 billion, a decrease of US $100 billion compared with the end of 6. In the future, if the US dollar continues to strengthen, the pressure of capital outflow will also increase.

Next week's three quarter GDP and other data may not be optimistic, not excluding expectations. The main macroeconomic indicators in the near future are weak, and enterprises' anticipation and motivation for participating in production and business activities are insufficient. In the future, capacity and manufacturing transformation and upgrading will continue, and the risk factors can not be ignored. The adjustment of the real estate market is an important reason for dragging down the growth of fixed assets investment, and is expected to further decline. Weak demand resulted in coal, non-ferrous metals and iron ore being cut down. Investment growth in the mining and upstream manufacturing industries dropped sharply and there was a risk of negative growth. The industrial sector has been in a state of deflation.

　　 Steady growth This is still an important task for this year. It is expected that directional control will be strengthened during the year. Social financing data show that trust loans have been negative growth for 3 consecutive months, reflecting the fact that the banking industry is being deleveraged for regulatory reasons, and trust channel financing will continue to decrease. On the whole, shadow banking financing is still strictly restrained. Strict regulation can help eliminate financial risks in the long run, but short term effects require strong bank lending to make up for it. In terms of capital prices, the central bank will reduce the financing cost of the real economy by guiding a series of interest rates, including repo rates.