Rodgers: U.S. Stocks Will Fall By 20%. Throw Away All Assets And Run For Life.
Jim Rogers, a well-known investor who co founded the quantum fund with Soros, said he agreed with the latest view of Albert Edwards, a strategist at Societe Generale de France, that "throw away all assets to escape" because the consequences of the super loose Federal Reserve are reflected.
Rodgers
It is believed that Western sanctions against Russia have forced many other countries to find alternative assets, and that dollarization has taken place.
"We will pay a terrible price for all these banknotes and debts," he predicted.
When interviewed by Russian TV station Boom-Bust, Rodgers appraise US stocks in this way:
The bull market is over, and US stocks will fall by 20%.
Market widths are decreasing, as there are signs that the stock market is decreasing in terms of spot innovation and trading level over 200 day moving average.
The adjustment of small cap stocks has exceeded 20%, and nearly half of the NASDAQ listed companies have fallen by 20%.
It's already a bear market.
Where will the market go? Consolidation is already the absolute minimum. However, judging from the real economy, it may be even worse.
Any pension plan, endowment fund and so on will be hit because they invest in futures, and the futures situation has deteriorated.
Speaking of the Fed, Rodgers said:
"We will do all of this.
banknote printing
and
debt
Pay a terrible price. "
They are at the expense of depositors and investors to help those who borrow large sums of money.
The consequences of this approach are now being reflected.
Regarding the de dollarization, Rodgers thought:
Since Russia was incorporated into Crimea, which was originally Ukraine, in March this year, the West imposed sanctions on Russia.
Leaving the US dollar is another response to Western sanctions.
Russia and Iran agreed to use their respective currencies and abandon the US dollar in bilateral trade.
Similarly, in early September, China and Russia also reached an agreement that they would use their respective currencies in the trade of roubles and Renminbi. In June, trade between Russia and North Korea was already rouble.
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Russia is highly dependent on oil and gas export revenues, which account for about half of its federal budget revenue.
According to the Russian Federation savings bank, Russia can maintain a balance between oil price and US $104 per barrel.
EvgenyNadorshin, chief economist at AFKSistema, a Russian conglomerate, said that if oil prices stayed near $90 a barrel, the Russian economy might begin to shrink before the end of the year.
If oil prices fall below $80 a barrel, Russia may have to cut spending.
Sensitive funds are voting with feet. On the one hand, the Russian enterprises and banks that are sanctioned need us dollars to trade; on the other hand, Russia's economic prospects are bleak and its capital escapes from Russia, causing ruble price to drop steadily.
In order to prevent the rouble from falling, the Central Bank of Russia has invested $6 billion in 10 days since October 3rd to intervene in the foreign exchange market and ended in a crushing defeat.
President of the Russian central bank admitted that the central bank could not compete with the market.
This year, the rouble has fallen by about 18% against the US dollar.
Russia had to take out the US dollar from its spare purse, and Treasury Secretary Si Lou Aranoff said in October 15th that the Treasury would give billions of dollars from the budgetary funds to the market in a month, and put it in the bank's account by auction to ease the pressure on the rouble.
Russia's central bank reserves about US $450 billion, including US dollars, gold and so on. Rating firm's Fitch estimates that sanctions may cost 15% of Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves. By the end of 2014, Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves are expected to drop to US $450 billion, to 400 billion US dollars by the end of 2015.
The reality is even more brutal. This year, the Russian government's foreign exchange reserves have dropped by 55 billion US dollars, of which about 40 billion US dollars are used to support the ruble exchange rate. At present, Russia's foreign exchange reserves are only 452 billion dollars.
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