Many Shops Are Cold, The Urban Complex Is Cold And Hot.

Since the beginning of this year, there are many places in the country.

The phenomenon of "closing stores to rent" appears in the mall.

After closing the Ji'nan store, Baisheng, a department store giant, shut down its new North store in Changzhou, Jiangsu, which is the sixth store that has closed in nearly 2 years.

In Guangdong, Wangfujing, Xinguang department store and modern department store separately announced their closure of a poorly run store.

Semi annual report shows that many A shares listed department store performance red light, of which Nanning department store net profit fell 52.97% compared to the same period, Hangzhou first half net profit fell 44% compared to the same period, Guangzhou friendship in the first half net profit fell 23%.

Under the impact of e-commerce, department stores are becoming more and more embarrassed as "fitting rooms".

The Department Store property and urban complex which are closely related to each other also have new challenges such as oversupply, investment difficulty, rent reduction or even rent withdrawal.

But with the "cold" of rent reduction and rent reduction, the construction of urban complex is still hot.

The industry believes that the urban complex cold and heat maladjustment lurks "unfinished" risks and credit risks, and eventually it will still be paid by banks and governments.

Many shops are cold.

Data show that from the end of April to the end of June, there were 12 stores in 8 department stores, including Baisheng department store and Zhong Du department store, which were the first time in nearly 5 years.

In some three or four tier cities, some of the lower commercial cities are more vacant and rent less.

Chengdu international trade city has an area of 3 million 450 thousand square meters, with an investment of 38 billion yuan, with 60 thousand standard booths. It is the largest commercial city in the West currently under construction.

The economic reference Daily reporter saw at the scene.

The popularity of the city is cold and the stalls are largely idle. In addition to the opening of some stalls on both sides of the main road, few people can see people in other places.

Ye Xiaowen, a clothing store owner, said that the turnover was only a few hundred yuan a day, which could not be returned.

Wang Junyu, general manager of Xi'an Daniel commercial and Trade City, said that when the business was opened in 2013, the rent rate of the more than 2000 berths reached 90%, but over the past year, even if the rent cost was not calculated, at least 70% of the merchants were losing money, so the phenomenon of rent withdrawal was more prominent.

In Shanghai, shopping malls in some commercial areas have been difficult to get from the past shops and become buyers' markets.

Some new shopping malls are ill at times, and rental returns are significantly lower than in previous years.

The economic reference daily visited the moon star global port with a total construction area of nearly 500 thousand square meters, which opened last year as the largest shopping center in Shanghai. There were few people in the prime time at 18 PM.

In addition to the popularity of catering and entertainment facilities, shopping shops such as clothing, shoes and hats have almost no passenger flow, and there are "empty shops" that have not yet been tenable on each floor.

Some tenants have disclosed that the rent of some shops here is nearly half cheaper than that of Zhongshan Park.

Reporters learned that with the increase in supply, some of the population in Shanghai moved into a slower suburb of new shopping centers with a higher vacancy rate of 30%.

According to the first Taiping Davies statistics, in 2013, the overall vacancy rate of Guangzhou shopping center increased by 1.1 percentage points over the end of 2012, reaching 10.8%, exceeding 6% of the unsafe warning line.

Qi Xiaozhai, director of the Shanghai business and Economic Research Center, said that the impact of e-commerce impact and cost increase had made it difficult for the department store industry to survive, especially in pure department stores. Sales declined year after year, and gross margins of the industry continued to decline and losses were serious.

Against this background, it is inevitable that shops will be difficult to rent, rent will drop or even rent out.

National City business information network monitoring data show that between 1 and May this year, the total sales volume of the top 100 department stores in the ten largest cities of the whole country decreased by 10.6% compared with the same period last year, including 82 department stores showing negative growth over the same period.

In the first half of this year, sales of professional stores, supermarkets and department stores increased by 6.9%, 5.3% and 4.1% respectively in the 5000 key retail enterprises monitored by the Ministry of Commerce, while online shopping grew by 29.9% over the first half of this year.

Commercial real estate surplus worries

Half is seawater and half is fire.

In contrast to the fact that many commercial real estate faces rent reduction or rent withdrawal, many cities are still building a new urban complex or shopping mall.

Take Guangzhou as an example, in the central city commercial real estate tends to be saturated, Panyu, Baiyun, Luogang and other regions are constantly building business circle.

In the central business district of Huambo in Panyu, apart from the sea seal and one city already opened, Tianhe City outlets, Austrian Garden Plaza and Hui Long new world, Panyu Wanda Plaza, agile square, Olympic Park Central Plaza, Tianhe City, Sihai city and other commercial projects are also gathered.

According to statistics from DTZ and other agencies, Guangzhou will add 560 thousand square meters of shopping area in 2014, close to the current stock area of 1/3.

If the average annual digestibility of 100 thousand to 130 thousand square meters in the past 5 years is calculated, only this year's new supply will take 4-5 years to digest.

From 2013 to 2015, the volume of new commercial projects in Beijing will reach 3 million 400 thousand square meters, equivalent to 17 Xidan Joy City.

International Consultancy CB Richard Ellis statistics, from 2014 to 2016, Shanghai will add 3 million 300 thousand square meters of shopping area, which is much faster than the supply of 400 thousand square meters in previous years.

The industry believes that China's commercial real estate is facing a lot of worries.

In developed countries, the per capita commercial area of 1.2 square meters has been considered to be a high level. At present, the per capita commercial area of some cities in China has reached 2 square meters.

According to the investigation by the State Richard Ellis, China accounted for 9 of the 10 largest shopping malls built in the world last year, and the shopping malls in China accounted for more than half of the shopping malls in the world.

Chen Limin, managing director of Cci Capital Ltd, said that under the background of housing restriction, many developers who had done the residential market blindly poured into the commercial real estate sector; local governments under the market regulation also had great impulse to make up the land finance through commercial real estate.

Under the combined force of both, many cities, especially the three or four tier cities with relatively weak financial resources, are rapidly engaged in commercial real estate, resulting in saturation of regional supply and increased bubble.

The oversupply of commercial real estate leads to vicious competition, which not only makes the vacancy rate rise, but also aggravates the loss of department stores.

Qi Xiaozhai said: "the current department store industry's depression and loss are not entirely caused by the impact of the electricity supplier. Vicious competition and backward business mode are the main reasons."

Take the newly closed Changzhou Parkson as an example, the surrounding shopping centers such as Yue bin, Wanda, Jin Ying and other large shopping malls are fiercely competitive. Business is generally difficult to make. After the opening of new projects, it is difficult to make profits as expected.

The CBD survey shows that the low growth and low profits of the department stores are increasingly unable to support high rent, and the prospects for the urban complex are in danger.

Over the past three years, the sample data of a number of department stores show that the annual compound growth of rents and staff costs is 14% and 18.5% respectively, while the average annual compound revenue growth of department stores is only 8.8%.

Credit is facing potential risks

Some industry insiders worry that under the background of downward pressure on the economy, commercial real estate projects are faced with the risk of "uncompleted" risks. If the continuous operation is not good enough, they will imply potential bank credit risks.

Wu Yiyi, director of the Business Services Department of the world bank, said that in the short term, oversupply, fierce competition and the impact of e-commerce will make the shopping mall operate or face difficulties.

In fact, due to difficulty in leasing and operation, Wanda Plaza in Panyu, Guangzhou, has been delayed in opening time than expected.

Some new urban complexes collect rents in the form of sales deduction. If shops sell poorly, they will face a cash flow crisis.

Commercial complex credit is facing potential risks.

By the end of 2 this year, 159 urban complex projects built and under construction supported by bank credit under the jurisdiction of Shanghai increased by 24 over the same period last year. The balance of loans for urban complexes within the jurisdiction was 82 billion 400 million yuan, an increase of 14.8% over the same period last year.

"Now the business circle economy is actually a real estate economy, relying on bank credit, and the ultimate risk is concentrated on banks and the government."

One industry insider said.

On the other hand, the shopping malls and commercial cities built by the large scale civil engineering have been neglected, and the small businesses have been losing money, dealing with improperly or bringing about social contradictions.

Xi'an Daniel commercial city is a commercial project invested by Daniel group. It has a total area of 250 thousand square meters, pforming the traditional "dirty and messy" wholesale market with department stores.

But since its opening last August, the mall has been losing popularity, and most of its tenants are in a state of loss.

Merchants Wang Ying rented a 25 square meter shop for fashion homes, earning only 10 thousand yuan a year, or at least 20 thousand yuan.

The other two businessmen who made home furnishings and home textiles said they had rented 2 shops of 60 square meters, with an annual rent of 100 thousand yuan, but sold only a few thousand yuan a year.

Chao Kejian, deputy head of Shanghai Jingan District, suggested that for the current large scale

The first is to determine the legal rigidity of business function planning as soon as possible, rationally determine the commercial layout according to the population and consumption capacity, avoid duplication of construction, and two, set the index for the rent, vacancy rate and rate of return of commercial facilities, and do a good job of risk warning.