Gui Haoming: The Adjustment Space Will Not Be Very Big.

The recent decline in European and American stock markets has brought a great impact on the domestic stock market. In the first three quarters of this year, the European and American stock markets have been performing well for the past two years, but the trend has been weakening for nearly a month. Even the popular Alibaba (micro-blog), which is popular before the listing, is also falling, which is called "the US version of PetroChina". The reason is that geopolitical tension is one aspect, and the other is related to the gradual withdrawal of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing plan and the increase in interest rate expectations. What impact will this have on the domestic market? Of course, the negative pull is inevitable, but people do not have to worry too much about it. Because the background of the US withdrawal from quantitative easing policy is economic recovery, although the former is unfavorable to the stock market, the latter is a positive factor. Moreover, the EU intends to introduce its own quantitative easing policy in order to cope with US policy changes so as to maintain its economic stability. In this way, the relative tightening measures of the United States will have other forces to balance in the world. Judging from the situation in China, although it will not fully reduce interest rates and cut interest rates, it is a constant proof that the 14 day repo rate fall in the open market operation. Therefore, in the light of the specific circumstances of the domestic and foreign markets, and if the European and American markets really fail, even if not, the domestic market is unlikely to be dragged down too much.

Of course, the less optimistic economic data in the three quarter had a negative impact on the current stock market. The newly released September foreign trade figures, though not bad, have been questioned. It is undeniable that in the context of investors still hope that economic growth will remain at a relatively high speed, the relevant data released now tend to be more worrying and cause unoptimistic judgement of the future market. The decline in the current market largely reflects this. However, the market is still very strong in anticipation of the reform. The market has gone through this period of time, and the enthusiasm of the market investment has been improved. The incremental capital market has become a prominent phenomenon. Despite the relative weakness of the real economy, the cyclical sector will be somewhat weaker, and blue chips are hard to get out of the big market that people expect. equity market The structural rise is still based. The formation of this situation has complicated internal and external factors. Although at a certain level, its existence and form of expression may not be very rational, but it does not deny that it has vitality at the present stage, and it is also consistent with the general situation. Investment Preference, coupled with the risk-free rate of return, the plate and individual stock market is bound to continue, which largely blocked the decline of the market. Further, when the reform is expected to be strong because of the incident, and the Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong and so on have entered the actual operation stage, the heavyweights will also act. In view of this, the stock market in October was not particularly ideal at the beginning stage, but in the middle and later half of the year, the market will probably return to the rising orbit and break the head shape of the market. Of course, October is not the end of this rally.

Just now Market condition In view of the fact that short term profit taking is relatively large, there is still need for consolidation in the short-term market. The stock index relies on 2350 points and needs a period of adjustment. In addition, the average daily turnover is relatively large, indicating that short - to - Air turnover is still not enough, so the market will mainly focus on interval fluctuations in the near future. However, because there is no significant downward space, the market shows more time to change the pattern of space. In fact, this is also a promising period for investors to take stock in a leisurely way. After all, in the concussion arrangement, they can show the strength of stocks. On the premise of continuing to see the performance of the big market in the next stage, it is more rational and operational value to adjust the shareholding structure and optimize the position of the stock market than the blind pessimism.