Chen Jingquan: Europe Silver Test Pass Market Short-Term Warming

The results of the European bank's eye test released at the weekend market showed that as many as 25 banks failed to pass the test, but because the major large European banks had passed the test, the market sentiment was obviously eased. In the early morning, whether gold or euro was rising, the risk preference was also reflected in the Asian stock market. If there was no accident today, the market sentiment of the European market would be strengthened, and the non US currencies and stock markets would be supported.

Although the global economic recession is a big backdrop, from the overall data in October, it seems that the US economy does not appear to be retrogressing by some Fed officials. This shows that the Federal Reserve has temporarily failed to find a better solution to the problem of the strength of the US dollar. In the current interest, our focus is on how to implement other short-term alternatives after the end of the QE. The author also mentioned before that if the rate of increase in interest rates is indeed strengthened, the market will be in turmoil. But after the end of QE, nothing will be done. In any case, this week, the Fed will have a clear short-term intention at the end of the QE.

The news that Europe passed the bank stress test at the weekend is undoubtedly the biggest positive this week. Although the economic recovery is still in a slow stage, the market will have some sentiment to push up the euro in the short term. Meanwhile, this week's inflation in the euro area will be announced again. If the data in September are rebounded compared with August, the tension in the euro area will also disappear in the short run. From these two points of view, this week the euro continues to shake up the situation is expected to appear.

　　 Brief technical proposal

Euro versus US dollar:

The closing of the Japanese market on Friday has eased the downward trend of short-term downtrend. Although all prices fell last week at the end of the physical price, it is now a case that 1.2600 of the integer points will form a new support for the euro. This price can stabilize the euro line's 1.2730-1.2750 test which will go up again. If we lose our early entry, we need to leave.

　　 gbpusd :

After a strong rebound last Friday, the strength of the pound is not inferior to the uplink of the euro. In the current callback, the biggest resistance price we still face is still 1.6180 of the top line. This position will be tested in the next two days. If it passes smoothly, the euro's uplink will be tested in the 1.6270 line.

　　 US dollar to Japanese Yen :

The United States and Japan turned back again last week, and the price of 107.6 stood firm again. In the US and Japan, there has been a sharp reversal trend. After Friday's concussion, we need to pay attention to Monday's callback test, while the lower test price is still the 107.5 line. If Monday is able to stabilize at the first tier price, it will be a suitable price in the short term.

　　 gold :

The performance of gold in the last week was generally unsatisfactory, and the trend of a downward trend was high. Most of the companies began to withdraw, especially when the 1241 and 1233 two major downstream resistances fell. Although they failed to continue the downtrend on Friday, 1233 faced a lack of strength in the callback phase. We will continue to observe this position in the European market stage. If there is a rundown, we will follow the air and participate alone, and break through. We will take a wait-and-see attitude temporarily.

　　 S & P 500:

Last week we talked about the 1960 regional trial on Friday, though it failed to pass smoothly, but the current uplink of the S & P 500 is still in the further strengthening stage. At present, it is still showing a good momentum of rise. Within 1950 days, it will be the area of the S & P callback test. If this position can be stabilized, we will try more single and stop loss 1935 below here, waiting for the 1960 test again.