Hubei Cotton Market Wait-And-See Situation Direct Subsidy Policy

This year is the first year of the implementation of China's cotton target price policy.

Since October, Hubei, a traditional cotton producing province in China, has not been in the past years.

There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the seed cotton sales market. Farmers, big and small enterprises and cotton mills are fighting against each other in the process of waiting for the policy.

The planting area decreased by 16%, and the total output decreased.

The reporter learned from the Hubei provincial development and Reform Commission that under the influence of the target price policy, the cotton planting area in Hubei province was 5 million 380 thousand mu, 13% less than last year, and the total output of 388 thousand and 500 tons of lint was 15.5% lower than that of last year.

The target price policy is a sharp sword for the reform of the price formation mechanism of China's agricultural products (000061 shares) and the adjustment of the national cotton spinning industry policy.

During the year of the policy, there was a trend of decreasing planting area and decreasing output in the cotton producing area outside Xinjiang, which indicated that the farmers' response to the policy was very sensitive.

Tang Chunlin, deputy director of Xiantao supply and Marketing Association of Hubei cotton producing city, introduced Xiantao's cotton planting area directly affected by the policy this year, which has reduced by more than 20%, and the total output has decreased by more than 20%, only 400 thousand.

He expects that with the continuation of the policy, the cotton area will be further reduced next year.

The details of the direct subsidy policy have not yet been issued, and the farmers' wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the market paction is still not active.

The information of the Hubei provincial development and Reform Commission and the Hubei Provincial Department of agriculture is different from the peak of cotton purchase in the past national day. This year, as of late October,

The peak of the sale is yet to come.

The main reason is that the implementation of the national direct subsidy policy has not yet come to a successful conclusion. Farmers are waiting for the boots of the policy to come to the ground and watch the fluctuation of the market.

Tao Weibin, general manager of Hubei Xianfeng Yinfeng cotton Co., Ltd. introduced that only 3 million jin of seed cotton had been collected so far this year, and he had received 30 million Jin in the same period last year.

"We are very puzzled, we open the door to buy, but we can not receive flowers, farmers do not give us.

One is equal policies, the other two is rising prices.

Tao Weibin said.

It is understood that Hubei Agricultural Development Bank has lower floor fund 514 million 500 thousand acquisition funds, and last year they laid 3 billion 500 million.

According to the relevant departments of the Hubei Agricultural Development Bank, from the perspective of current capital utilization, the acquisition process is relatively slow, and the peak of the acquisition has not yet arrived. The peak is expected to be postponed for about a week.

First, it depends on the time of publication of the specific plan. Two, the risk of seed cotton storage is huge, and farmers can not hold cotton for a long time.

The price of new cotton has risen slightly, and the market outlook is mainly stable.

The reporter learned from the cotton purchase market of some counties and cities in Hubei that the price of seed cotton hovered around 3 yuan at the beginning of the new cotton market. After entering the acquisition season, the price of new cotton rose slightly from 3.1 yuan / jin to the current 3.25 yuan / Jin.

Tao Weibin said that the price rise is caused by farmers' reluctant to sell, holding cotton and other policies.

When the temporary purchase and storage policy was implemented last year, the price of new cotton reached 4 yuan a kilogram, and the state was the largest buyer.

The large and small rolling mills are very active, especially in the early period of the purchase of the small ginning plant of type 200, "in order to collect flowers, maliciously stir up the price of high seed cotton", so the price of new cotton rose slightly.

However,

The impact of the recession on cotton spinning industry is unlikely to continue to rise in seed cotton prices, and is expected to stabilize between 3.25 yuan and 3.3 yuan per catty.

In the futures market, the current price of cotton is 13 thousand and 800 yuan per ton, which has already shrunk by 200 yuan.

But in general, the price of futures will gradually be in line with the spot market.

At present, the price of the 1411 contract is 14 thousand and 800 yuan, which is basically in line with the spot price of the three grade cotton, which means that there will be room for rise in the futures market.

The price is reversed, the profit margins are thin, the competition in the ginning factory is in disorder, and the policy is expected to continue to consolidate the market.

According to industry estimates, according to the current seed price of 3.2 yuan / Jin, the price of one ton of lint is 14 thousand yuan, basically maintaining costs.

At present, the price of lint is hovering between 13 thousand and 800 yuan and 13 thousand and 900 yuan per ton, and the price of seed cotton and lint is upside down.

As the largest cotton enterprise in Hubei, Hubei Yinfeng group said that the upside down of large enterprises is more serious.

Large enterprises of type 400 face the problems of large wage costs, greater operating costs, heavier social burdens, higher interest costs, higher tax costs and heavier administrative apportionment.

Tao Weibin reckons that according to the current price of 3.25 yuan / Jin, the price of lint cotton will be sold to 14 thousand and 500 / ton, so that his company can operate at above cost.

However, the actual situation is that since 1998, it has been planned to eliminate backward production capacity in the cotton textile industry for five years, and has continued to eliminate backward production capacity for five years. For various reasons, it failed.

A group of 200 small factories has become a "catch fish" outside the national industrial policy. The price of Hubei's seed cotton is rising.

Another cotton mill in Tianmen, Hubei, told reporters that a small factory has the following characteristics: small, small, low and fast.

Small, that is, the small scale of production capacity; less, less staff, mostly casual workers; low, low lint price, attracting cotton mills; quick, quick action, direct acquisition of the four main characteristics of the 400 type ginning plant.

Many interviewed head of the ginning plant said they were very happy to cancel the cotton temporary storage policy and return the cotton pricing power to the market. However, we hope that the policy will continue to persist, deepen the domestic cotton textile market, straighten out the price formation mechanism, and adjust the production capacity.

In addition, under the great layout of the national macro regulation and control cotton spinning industry, we expect to continue to strengthen the adjustment of backward production capacity.