Why Does A Share Have Big Independent Market?

A shares will take independent market

Although the United States withdrew Quantitative easing However, with its strong economic growth and the status of the international monetary center, tight currency positions have been flowing to the US, making the United States the most robust stock market in the overseas market, but even so, the S & P 500 index is still far behind the A share market, and figure 1 shows this difference. What has led to this difference? Some scholars believe that China's macroeconomic situation is improving and entering the new growth cycle. This may be a bit reasonable, but it seems difficult to justify the comparison with the Hongkong market.

Because Mobility Relatively abundant, after 2008, Hongkong's state-owned enterprises index has always been the first indicator of A shares, and the domestic market is always following the ups and downs of Hong Kong stocks passively, but this time there is an exception. As shown in Figure 2, before July this year, the Hong Kong stock market has been ahead of the A share, and this has led to a run in general. But after July, the situation suddenly changed. In the two months' time, the two markets almost showed a reverse running trend. Finally, the Hongkong market followed the A shares. What forces led to the independence of the A shares, and how long will this independent market last?

It is widely believed that the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the fourth plenary session has established confidence for A share investors. The improvement of the economic form and the strong anticipation of the new round of reform have led to this round of market quotation, which is a big bull market. I will not say whether this market is really a bull market, at least it is not a typical bull market. Macroeconomic data and corporate profits are falling rapidly. Real estate prices haven't bottomed out. The stock market's rise is at least not in line with the logic of a typical bull market. At the same time, A shares correspond to the same economic entity of Hang Seng state enterprises. Where is the nature of the problem?

This is a question of wealth expression.

Callback is to buy something.

In modern society, in addition to current consumption, the balance of national income is called wealth accumulation. This part of wealth needs appropriate expression. The most primitive wealth expression tool is money, but after the development of the financial industry, wealth is mainly expressed through equity, real rights and bonds. The real right is mainly real estate and mineral resources, and the advanced form of equity is stock. Under inflation conditions, bond yields are roughly equal to inflation rates, and bonds evolve into a liquidity management tool. The core wealth expression is property and stock. Over the past 15 years, during the period of rapid development of real estate in China, real estate has become the main means of expression for the wealth of our residents. Its market value is about 300 trillion. Relatively speaking, the total market capitalization of stock is only 20 trillion, even 10% of real estate. Because of the large scale and continuous rise of housing prices in recent 15 years, the rule of speculation has strengthened the bubble mechanism and concentrated wealth on property. With the advent of the aging era, the turning point of housing prices has emerged, and the function of real estate as an expression tool for wealth has finally ended. Wealth can only be chosen by another tool, stock. After the three quarter of this year, the market is the specific expression of the transfer of this tool.

The specific benefits of transferring wealth from property to stock are as follows: net income of real estate = rent yield + house price yield, and stock yield =1/ price earnings ratio. Suppose the market price earnings ratio is 15 times, and the yield is 6.7%. In real estate, the rental yield is 4%, the house price fall is 4%, and the composite yield is zero. If you are not a fool, you will choose to sell your house and buy stocks. In the past, property prices rose by more than 6%, with a combined return of more than 10%.

Some people say that a lot of stocks have a P / E ratio of more than 50 times, which is very risky. However, the risk is still smaller than the zero yield of real estate, unless the housing price stops. In view of this, the recent bull market in the stock market is not the result of economic growth, but the beginning of the real estate bubble burst. In addition, I said stocks are broad, including ownership of industrial investment and ownership of mineral resources. We evaluate whether the stock market is going to the end, depending on the weighted average price earnings ratio of the stock market and the equity market, rather than looking at the stock market alone. If the PE of the stock market is high and the PE of the equity is low, it can reduce the stock price earnings ratio through the acquisition of industrial assets and industrial assets backdoor listing. In recent years, the merger of private capital and the mixed ownership reform of state-owned enterprises are playing the game of asset expression.

China's stock market expresses more than 100 trillion of its wealth. In this game, the injection of private capital has already completed a considerable part, and the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises has just begun. The military stock market is also good, the integration of the high - speed rail plate is also to adjust the interests of the relationship, and in this process of adjustment, the interest space is great, the executives of state-owned enterprises will actively participate in the layout.

So, no matter what U.S.A How to tighten, how to adjust overseas, China's stock market callback is to buy points, and what stocks to choose depends on your vision and imagination.