Ye Tan: Why Did The US Marshall Plan Succeed?

The Chinese economy seeking transformation and upgrading is building more links with the world economy and achieving mutual benefit and win-win situation. Capital export at all levels and the "going out" strategy of enterprises have started. At the APEC conference held in Beijing in November 5th, "strengthening interoperability and infrastructure construction" is one of the three main topics. Asia's infrastructure investment bank is an important guarantee for China's large-scale investment in external infrastructure, and the "one belt and one way" is the strategic carrier of China's capital export plan, which digests its own excess capacity through capital export and drives global growth through infrastructure development in emerging market countries and less developed countries.

There is public opinion to compare this process with the Marshall plan of that year. In any case, there are several key factors in the success of the Marshall plan in the United States.

First, the idea is in harmony. market demand 。 After the Second World War, the United States, as a well deserved economic power, has the power to export capital and projects. Marshall's plan was officially launched in July 1947, which lasted for 4 fiscal years, consolidating the economic base of Europe. It not only made western Europe recover rapidly after World War II, but also made the United States and Western Europe equal trade partners. The United States and Western Europe both benefited from the donor countries and laid a new pattern in the western world.

Secondly, the United States does not insist on the return of aid funds, and investment, construction and trade start together. Most of the participating governments of the Marshall plan are clear that they do not have to return the corresponding funds to the United States. In the end, the balance was mostly incorporated into the national budget and then disappeared. But Germany is an exception. The United States began to stipulate that Germany must return all aid in the future. However, after the signing of the London debt agreement in 1953, the amount of aid that Germany has to repay has been reduced to $1 billion. Since July 1, 1951, Germany's aid from the Marshall plan has been equivalent to 270 million US dollars, and they only need to repay us $16 million 900 thousand to the US export and import bank.

Third, capital The use is very effective. The general office for economic cooperation is set up and the funds allocated to various countries are jointly managed by the host country government and the economic cooperation department. Each participating country's capital will have a special envoy of the general economic cooperation department. It is usually made by a prestigious American business person who makes recommendations to monitor efficiency. The economic cooperation department not only carries out cooperation in the allocation of funds, but also organizes a consultative group composed of government, industry and Commerce and labour leaders to assess the economic situation and decide on the specific direction of the aid fund.

This is for the United States. Digestion capacity Fortunately, Europeans use most of the aid money from the Marshall plan to import goods made in the US. By the middle of 1951, $3 billion 400 million of the total $13 billion of the aid provided was for imports of raw materials and semi manufactured goods, $3 billion 200 million for the purchase of grain, feed and fertilizer, and 1 billion 900 million dollars for heavy industrial products such as imported machinery, vehicles and heavy equipment, and 1 billion 600 million US dollars for imported fuel.

This promoted local investment and production, and set up corresponding funds to convert the aid funds from the Marshall plan into funds made up of local currency. According to the statute of the general economic cooperation department, no less than 60% of the fund is applied to manufacturing investment. Most of Germany's loans to private enterprises are mainly used to subsidize SMEs in Germany, playing an important role in promoting the reconstruction process and promoting the employment field. The fund also played a central role in the process of re industrialization in Germany. From 1949 to 1950, 40% of the total German coal mining investment was provided by the corresponding fund.

Funds were also recycled, and capital turnover was accelerated, which was a monetary expansion plan at that time. European importers buy American goods and pay for them in the US dollar, but the local businessmen pay the goods in local currency and pay them gradually. After that, the money is then invested in the corresponding funds for the government to implement its further investment plan. Such money has been recycled continuously, and has also promoted the credit of the local currency.

In order to achieve success in capital export and enterprise going out, China must have win-win thinking instead of excess capacity dumping. China will provide funds and technology to settle accounts in Renminbi and local currencies and circulate the credit of both currencies. In addition, investment banking or revitalization fund must be strictly supervised under the precondition of China's dominant power, which will cover the efficient operation of all parties' interests.