October 2014 Economic Data Analysis

Here world

The introduction of the Xiaobian network is that the economic data in October are all down, and the economic growth momentum is still weak.

Major macroeconomic data in October are down.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday, the industrial added value of above scale industries increased by 7.7% in real terms in October, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 11.5%. In 1-10, the fixed asset investment in China increased by 15.9%, down 0.3 percentage points, 0.1 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points respectively compared with September.

"Industrial growth is lower than

The average expected increase slightly indicates that the growth weakness has not changed. "

Guo Hai securities (000750, stock bar) analysis of normal Xiao Yang yesterday received an interview with the public securities daily and Caixin network reporter.

Yang Weixiao, a senior analyst with macro and fixed income of link securities, told reporters that starting in August this year, industrial data showed a downward trend in the overall central region, and the industrial added value dropped again in October.

Since the three quarter, the industrial added value of the three quarter has been strongly influenced by the base effect due to the cyclical fluctuations in the peak and high season.

"At present, the economic growth is not only at the bottom, but may be on the marginal repair stage."

Although the figures are lower than market expectations, there are still some signs to note.

"Investment stabilization is noteworthy."

Fan Xiaoyang further believes that although the investment in fixed assets is slightly down, the real estate boom has improved, and the cumulative growth rate of investment has been 12.4%, and the downward range has obviously narrowed.

Real estate sales improved, the cumulative year-on-year stabilization, rebounded significantly in the same month.

In addition, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has rebounded under the promotion of new projects.

"The situation of all economic indicators in the early stage has changed, and the economy is expected to gradually stabilize."

According to the detailed data, sales of real estate in October improved, and the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 1.6% over the same period last month, a decrease of 8.7 percentage points from last month, of which the sales area grew by -3.7% at the same month, the decline was 8.4 percentage points slower than that of last month. Sales of commercial housing decreased by 0.7% in October compared with the same month last month, and the decline was 8.2 percentage points slower than last month.

In addition, in the case of sales rebound, the 10 month real estate new construction area growth rate from September -0.2% rebounded sharply to 42.9%.

Most people in the industry believe that in October

Data show that economic momentum is still relatively weak. In the future, it is still necessary to rely on increased infrastructure investment to stabilize economic momentum.

And monetary policy will still have room for relaxation in the future, especially in the open market. The interest rate of positive and reverse repurchase operations is still higher than that of low interest rates in 2012 and 2013. The forward and reverse repo rates will still have room for reduction in the future, and MLF and MLF may continue to operate to encourage bank lending to increase.