What Will Happen To The "Terrorist Data" In The United States?

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Xiaobian of the network to introduce the United States, "terrorist data" will come out of the market once again triggered a "bloodbath"?

New York Fed chairman Dudley issued a dovish speech, and investors speculated that the fall in oil prices will ease the inflationary pressure in the United States, making the Fed more waiting time before raising interest rates, and the US dollar index slipped slightly on Thursday.

On Friday, the financial market will welcome the attack of heavy data in Europe and the United States. The euro area will issue GDP and inflation data, while the US will issue retail sales. Investors will pay special attention to the US retail sales data.

Last month, the data was worse than expected, triggering a sudden plunge in the US dollar and a sharp fall in European and US stock markets, and the US bond yields also plummeted.

The Federal Reserve "three" and New York Fed chairman Dudley (William Dudley) said on Thursday (November 13th) that the US Federal Reserve (FED) should raise interest rates sooner rather than later.

Crude oil prices fell to a four year low. Investors speculated that this would reduce inflationary pressures in the United States, thereby postponing the Fed's first interest rate hike.

In his speech, Dudley pointed out that if the United States tightens monetary policy when the time is not ripe, it may bring disaster to the economic recovery.

Dudley's pigeon rhetoric suppressed the US dollar to a certain extent.

After the above speech, the US dollar index concussion descended, reaching a minimum of 87.71.

The US dollar index fell 0.1% in late New York on Thursday.

Germany

Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of foreign exchange strategy at Commerzbank, said: "Dudley's comments reveal the uncertainty of the normalization of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, but I think this effect will not last too long. Dudley is a famous big dove."

Yellen, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said in a speech on Thursday that the US Federal Reserve must pay close attention to the dynamics of overseas markets and its impact on the US economy when formulating a future line of interest rates for Janet Yellen.

Speaking at an international macroeconomic and financial conference held by the Federal Reserve, Yellen said the Fed is now committed to achieving the mission of Congress to achieve full employment and price stability goals.

She did not comment on the US economic situation or monetary policy, which did not cause market volatility.

Sireen Harajli, Mizuho Bank strategist at Mizuho, said: "oil prices are falling, increasing the pigeon atmosphere in the market, and the market is waiting for Friday's retail data.

Investors want to see whether this data is a proof of a strong dollar or a falsification.

Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at TD Securities, said: "the market looks happy to be willing to deliver in the current range, waiting for the dollar to rise, and we think the dollar will go up for a long time."

USD / JPY approached its seven year high on Thursday as the market speculates on Shinzo Abe's decision to hold early elections in December.

The dollar / yen rose 0.2% on Thursday, at 115.71, not far from the seven year high of 116.11 on Tuesday.

According to government figures, the number of jobless claims increased earlier than expected last week, but after a 14 year low, the dollar / yen saw a low 115.32.

On Thursday, the US initially requested data slightly lower than expected.

The number of jobless claims in the United States rose from 278 thousand to 290 thousand last week, slightly higher than the expected 280 thousand. However, the initial data below 300 thousand remained at the level before the crisis, indicating that the US job market remained stable.

If an election is held ahead of schedule, Andouble may win re-election with higher public support. Analysts believe he will use public opinion to implement the second round of inflation policy and postpone the sales tax increase plan.

This pushed the Nikkei index up and put the yen under pressure.

The pound fell to a 14 month low against the US dollar. The weaker housing market data released by the United Kingdom further aggravated the selling pressure on the British Central Bank (BOE) on Wednesday.

The GBP / USD fell 0.4%, at 1.5709, and has fallen by about 5% this year.

Focus on retail sales data

The US Department of Commerce will announce the October retail sales figures at 21:30 on Friday, Beijing time.

Last month, retail data triggered huge fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.

Investors will wait and see whether the data will fluctuate again this month.

The median expected value of economists surveyed by the media showed that the US retail sales in October increased by 0.2%, while the former value dropped by 0.3%. In October, the core retail sales grew by 0.2% in the month, and 0.2% in the previous month.

Osborne pointed out that interest in investing in the US dollar fell this week, as US Treasury yields rose after the rally, and there was no major US economic report to guide the way.

Osborne said: "there may be more interest on the retail sales data released by the United States on Friday."

DailyFX said the United States will release retail sales figures for October.

As PMI data show that the US economy is slowing down, retail data will be an indicator of how the US economy starts in the fourth quarter.

Survey data show that the fourth quarter annual growth rate may be 2.5%.

The decline in retail sales in September once caused the market turmoil and rekindled fears about the health of the US economy. If the data failed to rebound in October, the worries would only deepen.

Looking back at the US retail data released last month, the unexpected drop in retail sales in September raised investors' concerns over the possible delay in raising interest rates for the first time by the Federal Reserve. The US dollar plunged. The US dollar hit a three week low against the euro and fell to a one month low against the yen.

In addition, European and American stock markets all dived, and US bond yields also declined sharply, while commodity prices also hit a five year low.

According to the data released by the US Department of Commerce in October 15th, retail sales accounted for 1/3 of consumer spending fell by 0.3% in September, the first decline since January and 0.6% in August.

It is worth noting that in addition to excluding cars, the US core retail sales month rate fell 0.2% in September, with an expected growth of 0.2% and an increase of 0.3% in the previous year.

The data became the "fuse" that led to the collapse of the financial market.

After the data was released, futures contracts showed that the possibility of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve in 2015 and September fell to 35% and 61% respectively, making it possible for the fed to act in December next year for the first time.

EUR / USD rose 0.9% in October 15th to 1.2773, hitting three week highs 1.2885.

The US dollar / yen dropped 1.1% to 105.92, down from 1.7% before, the biggest intraday drop in July 2013.

The US dollar index fell 0.83%, to 85.10.

The S & P 500 index closed down 0.8% to 1862.49 in October 15th and fell 3% during the session.

The Dow dropped 173.45 points, or 1.1%, to 16141.74, dropping 460 points in the session.

The pan European blue chip 300 index hit its biggest one-day drop in about three years.

The pan European blue chip 300 index plunged 3.2% and closed at 1251.87 points, first seen in December last year, and the biggest one-day drop in 2011 at the end of 2011.

The price of treasury bonds rose in October 15th, and the benchmark 10 - year Treasury yields hit the biggest drop since March 2009, as retail sales declined, prompting traders to reduce their bets on the US Federal Reserve's rate hike in 2015.

Vigilance against US dollar trend

Hans Redeker, director of global strategy for foreign exchange at Morgan Stanley, said in an analysis report on Thursday that the US dollar has shown signs of "decline in strength" and suggested caution in the next few weeks. Morgan,

Redeker pointed out in the report that the US dollar has reached its peak, and technical indicators show that its price has been oversold.

He also said that in view of the seasonal position adjustment, the US dollar index has a short-term risk of callback.

However, the US dollar is still optimistic in the medium term.

Foreign exchange traders worry that the continued strength of the US dollar will weaken the competitiveness of American goods in the global market and thus inhibit economic growth. However, the changes in the US trade pattern in the past 10 years will dispel their worries.

Although the US dollar has risen nearly 6% from major currencies such as the euro and yen since the middle of the year, the FED's trade weighted index shows that the US dollar is more moderate to other economies, with an average gain of around 1%.

This is very important because Bloomberg data show that the proportion of developing countries in US trade has increased from 41% in 2004 to 51% now.

Analysts point out that the evidence that a stronger US dollar has a moderate impact on the US economy may make it easier for the fed to raise its main interest rate close to zero.

"The US dollar fluctuates within a narrow range, which allows the United States to maintain its competitiveness in emerging market exports," said Douglas Borthwick, head of foreign exchange operations at Chapdelaine & Co., a brokerage firm in New York.

The US dollar is rising against the euro and against the yen, but it is not so strong against emerging market currencies.

Eurozone data increase fear of easing pressure on Europe and silver

On the euro area, the initial value of GDP in the third quarter of the euro area will be launched on Friday. In the context of the global economic downturn, whether the euro zone economy can get rid of the previous predicament will decide whether the euro can continue to rebound this week.

The European Central Bank (ECB) did not increase its firepower last week. It is expected to consider further the effect of the second round of low interest loans to banks in December.

There was a series of third quarter GDP data on the euro zone on Friday, and the result is unlikely to be satisfactory.

In addition, inflation data will also be released. The market expects the euro area's October CPI rise from 0.3% to 0.4%.

Analysts pointed out that if the euro zone data on Friday are weaker than expected, it may increase the pressure of the European Central Bank to relax its efforts, including buying sovereign debt.

Hopes for a rebound in the region's economy are dashed, because Europe's largest economy, Germany, is hard to grow, and data released on Friday may indicate a recession.

Technically speaking, the two consecutive quarter of economic decline means falling into recession.

The survey estimated that the GDP growth in the third quarter of the euro area and Germany was 0.1%, while France could grow by 0.2%, and Italy again shrank slightly.

The euro area has only grown 0.1% in the second quarter of this year, and Germany has shrunk by 0.2%.

"It seems that the euro zone and Germany are avoiding it," said an analyst at Holland International Group (ING) in a report.