Cotton Market: The Cotton Planting Area In The Mainland Is Reduced At 10% Speed In Two Years.

The mainland cotton market is ushering in an unprecedented "big exam".

In September 16th this year, the implementation plan of Xinjiang cotton target price reform pilot project fell to the ground, marking the implementation of the three year's policy of temporarily collecting and storing the state.

In early November, cotton price subsidy policies in 9 provinces and autonomous regions such as Shandong, Hubei and Gansu were also clear.

China's cotton target price reform pilot project is carried out. The goal is to give full play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources under the premise of protecting the interests of farmers, which will have a far-reaching impact on the upstream and downstream industries of cotton.

However, when the new and old policies in the "post purchase and storage era" of cotton come into being, China's cotton industry will usher in a painful and painful pformation.

According to "Securities Daily" reporter, although the mainland cotton production area price subsidy policy is clear, but because the specific implementation details have not yet landed, at present, cotton farmers reluctant to sell, processing enterprises are unwilling to buy, and even because of the low yield of cotton, some cotton farmers pull cotton to other crops.

According to the Securities Daily, Zhang Hongzhou, director of the galaxy futures textile department, said that in the past two years, the cotton planting area in the mainland has been reduced at a rate of about 10%, while the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has basically increased steadily.

The cotton planting area will continue to expand in the next year, and the cotton planting area in Xinjiang will remain stable.

Ma Junkai, Deputy Secretary General of Shandong Dezhou Cotton Association, said: "these days, the Shandong provincial development and Reform Commission has come to Dezhou to investigate and consult, and strive to introduce the details of cotton price subsidies as soon as possible."

It is pointed out that the new deal will reduce the difference between the inside and outside cotton prices and benefit the domestic textile enterprises.

But policy adjustment will also cause cotton prices to fall, and the negative impact of falling prices will also be great.

So the difficulties faced by the cotton industry are hard to solve in the short term.

At the beginning of November, the scope and standard of the central financial subsidy for the main cotton producing areas in the mainland were determined. The mainland subsidies were 9 provinces and autonomous regions in Shandong, Hubei, Hunan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Jiangxi and Gansu. The subsidy standard in 2014 was 2000 yuan / ton, and the subsidy standard in the following year was 60% based on the subsidy amount of Xinjiang, and the ceiling was not more than 2000 yuan / ton.

Xinjiang's subsidy standard has already been promulgated, and the target price of cotton is 19800 yuan / ton, which is lower than this.

It is subsidized by the government.

It is understood that the central government's subsidy to the main cotton producing province is based on the cotton output determined by the National Bureau of statistics. The subsidy method is determined by the provinces independently, and it can be subsidized by area or by output.

However, what is the cotton price to be replenishment? How much is it? Who will supply it? The specific plans and rules of each place have not been promulgated, and the cotton market in the mainland has fallen into "confusion".

The field survey of China's cotton net shows that the cotton market in Henan is cold, and most cotton enterprises reduce the purchase volume, waiting for the introduction of the subsidy rules.

Cotton farmers are generally worried about the implementation of the rules, and most cotton farmers are worried about whether they can apply for subsidies.

At the same time, processing enterprises are reluctant to acquire cotton.

according to

It is reported that the cotton mill is generally worried that the cotton prices will continue to fall in the late period, and the purchase intention is not strong, and the seed cotton purchase price is far lower than the cotton farmers' expectation, which will cause the cotton farmers to sell. Many cotton farmers in Hubei and Hunan have backlog.

In Anhui and Jiangsu, the average type 400 enterprises buy 30 thousand kg to 50 thousand kg of seed cotton a day, which is difficult to compare with the scale of 200 thousand kg to 300 thousand kg in the same period last year.

Ma Junkai said that in mid October, the turnover of cotton farmers in Dezhou was only about 10%, about 20% lower than that in normal years, and many farmers had been pulling cotton seeds for wheat.

Due to the lack of policy rules, cotton growers are still reluctant to sell, and cotton processing enterprises have a small number of acquisitions, but most of them are cotton in the Tianjin and Hebei producing areas.

Now Shandong Dezhou seed cotton purchase price is 3.2 yuan / Jin, and last year was 4.1 yuan / Jin, the purchase price is too low, cotton farmers sell cotton means a loss.

According to Wang Xiaohong analysis, cotton farmers are afraid to sell seed cotton, and cotton enterprises are mostly off duty to wait and see. This stalemate is expected to continue until the specific rules are issued.

Although the subsidy of 2000 yuan per ton is not enough to make up for the loss of cotton price at least 6000 yuan / ton this year, it is somewhat comforting for the mainland farmers.

As the mainland subsidy policy was released later, seed cotton picking was basically completed.

Now it is difficult to verify the area and output of cotton farmers, which will lead to the difficulty of issuing rules for subsidies.