Super Week Market Moves Highlight Gold Staged Big Counterattack

The first trading day of this week's super week is international. financial market The reaction of the exchange market is flat, but the trend of precious metals and crude oil has shocked the whole market. International gold and silver crude oil also rose sharply yesterday. In the early morning, the price of gold rose to a low of 1142 in the early month after the Swiss central bank referendum. However, it pulled up a huge rebound of US $80 and refreshed a multi month high of US $1220.

　　 gold and silver Staged a counter attack big rebound, super week market followed.

Yesterday, the yellow gold rose by 3.6%, the highest in the session reached 1221 dollars, silver rose nearly 8%, the US oil rose 4.3%, the largest daily gain in two years, the gold amplitude was nearly 7% on that day, the silver amplitude was close to 20%, a record was recorded, and the crude oil was nearly 10%.

The reason for the market movement is complex. Some analysts believe that Japan's rating was downgraded and detonated the market risk aversion, stimulating the sharp rebound of precious metals prices, and it was also a result of the serious oversold market. After the proposal of a referendum against increasing gold reserves in Switzerland on Sunday, the market shrank, and traders thought the decline was excessive.

Japan's sovereign debt rating was downgraded to stimulate the market's risk aversion demand, coupled with the backing of the US dollar exchange rate for the price of commodity futures contracts, which are priced in the US dollar, including gold, is the most widely used reason for the rise of gold and silver overnight.

Rating agency Moodie Investor Service announced earlier Monday that it will reduce Japan's sovereign credit rating from Aa3 to A1, and said that Prime Minister Abe Shinzo's efforts to achieve sustainable economic growth are facing a lot of challenges.

The traditional choice of gold has been strongly driven by concerns about a possible slowdown in the global economy and investors seeking secure assets to protect their wealth. In addition, the fall in the US dollar exchange rate also makes the cost of holding and trading US dollar commodity futures contracts lower, and has a driving effect on futures prices, including gold and crude oil.

Affected by the sharp rebound in gold, the crude oil market jumped by up to 5% on Monday, rebounding from a five year low, the biggest single day increase in 2012, and the 3% increase was the largest in October 2012.

For the commodity market, if the market is the beginning of a strong rebound, it is difficult to rule out the last few transactions.

　　 Australian Federal Reserve Maintain interest rates unchanged

The first day of the super week ended in an unexpected way. This may only be the beginning of this week's super week. On Tuesday, the market will focus on the first interest rate resolution this week, and then more challenges will follow.

The RBA today announced that the benchmark interest rate remained unchanged at 2.50%, consistent with market consensus expectations. After the announcement, the RBA announced its previous stance. The most prudent choice of the Fed may be to maintain interest rate stability over a period of time, but has made some changes in the Australian dollar exchange rate and the wording of the international economic description.

This is the fourteenth consecutive meeting of the RBA that has decided to maintain the cash interest rate unchanged at a record low of 2.5%. The bank has cut interest rates by 225 basis points since the end of 2011.

The RBA statement said that the global economy continued to grow moderately, and that China's economic growth was basically consistent with the objectives of policymakers. Although the slowdown in the housing market has become a major challenge for China's economy, economic policies may respond in a biased way to support growth. The US economy continues to grow stronger, but both the euro zone and Japan are both weakening in the near future. Commodity prices have been significantly downward for several months, reflecting the weakening of demand, and more importantly, the supply of commodities is also increasing.

Most of the Australian economy is consistent with the moderate growth of the economy. Investment in resources industry began to decline significantly. Meanwhile, other private demand areas expanded, but the speed was different. Public spending is expected to slow down. Overall, the RBA expects growth in the next few quarters to be slightly slower than the trend.

The RBA continues to believe that although some of the forward-looking employment indicators are firm this year, the unemployment rate is slightly upward. There is still a degree of idle capacity in the job market. It may take some time to see the unemployment rate fall. Therefore, wage growth is expected to remain fairly modest for some time to come. Even if the Australian dollar depreciates, the inflation rate will match the target.

The Australian dollar's recent decline, most of which reflects the strength of the US dollar, is still higher than most of the fundamentals, especially considering the further decline in key commodity prices in recent months. It is expected that a lower Australian dollar rate is needed to achieve a balanced economic growth.

Looking ahead, continuing to adopt a loose monetary policy should boost demand and help speed up growth at some point in the future. Inflation is expected to meet 2%-3%'s objectives in the next two years.

In addition, the Central Bank of Europe and the United States, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen will make a speech tonight. Yesterday, Fisher, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, delivered a speech at the 100th anniversary commemorative Symposium of the Federal Reserve held in New York. He said that with the improvement of the US economy, the Fed's current focus is on when and how to end zero interest rates.

The Fed officials are still facing a dilemma as to whether or not to adjust interest rates. The job market continues to improve faster than expected, but a stronger US dollar, weaker growth in other countries and falling oil prices are expected to cause low inflation in the coming months.

The European Central Bank will announce interest rate resolutions on Thursday. The survey released in December 1st showed that the growth of manufacturing industry in the euro area was stagnant in November. Despite sharp price cuts, new orders fell 19 months, indicating that the outlook for the next few months is bleak and the PMI value of euro zone core countries Germany and France in November is shrinking.

The European Central Bank sources pointed out that the weak start of the new asset purchase plan means that the central bank may not be able to achieve the goal of expanding the scale of the balance sheet, which may pressure the central bank to take more radical measures at the beginning of next year. One option is to buy bonds.