The Stock Market Is Expected To Rise Sharply After The Stock Market Is Expected To Rise Sharply.

The money making effect of the market has aroused the attention and enthusiasm of all kinds of funds. In the view of the fund, the market will make a difference in the medium term, but in the short term, the admission of funds is too fast, and the index is accelerating.

For the blue chip market, the Fund believes that the benign rotation of the weight plate will be conducive to the vertical development of the market. From the historical trend, once the blue chip market starts, it will last for a long time and will not be reversed quickly.

　　 A shares "New normal"

The "fuse" of the outbreak of the current market is the central bank's ultra expected rate cut. Last Tuesday, the repo rate was lowered by 20 basis points, and the repo operation was suspended on Thursday. The continuous and highly consistent operation of regulators led the market to draw a conclusion that the currency was loose.

The trend of the market also confirms this view: the A share market has gone out of the "seven Lian Yang" in the past 7 trading days, and the Shanghai composite index broke through 2600 points to 2700 points last week.

From the perspective of specific industries, the three sector of non bank finance, banking and real estate led to a rise of 17%, 15% and 12%, respectively, because of the direct interest rate cut.

It is amazing that on Friday, the total daily trading volume of the two cities totaled more than 700 billion, which has surpassed the peak turnover in US stock history (July 26, 2007, 99 billion 500 million US dollars, or about 610 billion yuan), creating a record of single day and single country transaction volume in human history.

So that "money is capricious" has become the most popular investment phrase last week.

In fact, last week, all trading days maintained a total turnover of more than 500 billion yuan in two cities. A fund company in Shanghai believed that the continued admission of off site incremental funds was the main reason for A shares to refresh their historical amount. Interest rate cuts help to reduce the financing cost of the real economy, increase the risk preference of investors, and turn the trend of asset allocation in large categories to the stock market. In the face of market capital and emotional orientation, continuous high volume of trading volume will also become the "new normal" of A share operation.

Haitong Fund said that after October this year, social capital has changed in the choice of investment channels, more concerned about the stock market, on the one hand, because of the downturn in the real economy and other financial products investment attractiveness, resulting in a lack of more effective investment path of social capital; on the other hand, this time period has a money effect, to a large extent, stimulated the enthusiasm of the market.

In the view of Qin Haiyan, manager of Tian Zhi core fund, the basis of the current market is the release of the institutional dividend. Because of the adjustment of A shares (especially large cap stocks) in previous years, valuations are basically at a historical low level, so in the case of the market's recognition of the new normal economic situation, coupled with strong expectations for this government reform, any industry with policy support will be sought after by the market. Therefore, when the economic data fluctuate little and the government has a policy of phasing the bottom, when the signal of relaxation starts, the enthusiasm of the market is ignited. This year's major policies, such as the reform of state-owned enterprises, the integration of Shanghai and Hong Kong, the integration of the army and the people, and many traditional fields of breaking monopoly, have produced many bull stocks.

"This interest rate cut is the first comprehensive nominal interest rate decline in this round of interest rate cuts. Interest rate cuts or cyclical easing policies and reforms are going hand in hand. We believe that the start of this rate cut also means that the next quasi cycle will start gradually in the near future. If the interest rate cut leads to the rapid rise of the A share market and a rapid increase, we believe that the registration system will be shortened. Under this premise, we believe that in the short term, market style is turning to large market stocks, and the relative returns of small cap stocks are declining rapidly in the process of turning. Guotai Junan suggests that in the market style, we should turn to the large cap Market in a comprehensive way, and the incremental capital market will further intensify the pursuit of large cap stocks or value stocks.

　　 Market outlook or shock intensified

about Aftermarket For example, some fund managers believe that the market still exists upward space, but the shock will intensify.

"Thursday and Friday's huge concussion means that the market's divergence in the short term trend has increased significantly, such as weekend regulators did not introduce further easing policies, and the stock market will see more shocks and adjustments at the beginning of next week." Six Wo investment believes that in the context of continued monetary easing, short-term adjustment will not change the medium term bull market trend, and maintain an optimistic view of the market outlook.

A fund company in Shanghai believes that, after a strong upturn, there has been a lot of profit taking in the market. The demand for cash chips has risen or intensified. In addition, from the capital side, the rise of blue chips, especially bank shares, has played a significant role in accelerating the flow of funds out of other industries, and the possibility that the market will continue to triumph is decreasing.

"Nevertheless, judging from the trend of the field, the weight still maintains a healthy rotation. Brokers and insurance companies, which had been leading the market last Friday, entered the adjustment, but the banking sector quickly completed the relay and pushed the market to a new high. The positive rotation of the weight plate will be conducive to the vertical development of the market. The fund companies believe that, from the historical trend, the blue chips market will start for a long time and will not be reversed quickly.

"Based on the current macro environment and market sentiment, we believe that the market may continue to oscillate in the short term, and the short-term overall risk is not great." Qin Haiyan, manager of Tian Zhi core growth fund, said: "in the short term, the amount of margin trading can be observed and the margin trading volume has exceeded 800 billion. The impact of these funds on the market can not be ignored. As long as the market sentiment is OK, the quantity can not change very much, we think the market opportunity is in. "

For the future market, Haitong Fund said that the current money making effect of the market has aroused the attention and enthusiasm of the various funds. In the medium and long term, the market will do something. In the short term, because the capital is coming too fast, the index has accelerated and there is adjustment pressure. Therefore, short-term shocks are inevitable, but it will be a strong shock.

　　 Blue chip market Is expected to continue

Last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 8.72%, while the partial stock fund rose by an average of only 4.58% last week, seriously losing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. The industry believes that the fund will be forced to return to the blue chip positions in the market situation. In addition, some funds are still optimistic about the continuity of the blue chip market.

A fund company in Shanghai thinks that blue chips, represented by banks, have always been the favorite of institutional investors because of their low valuation, high dividend rate and good liquidity. At the same time, the interest rate cut on the two sides of the real estate supply and demand is obvious, and the low mortgage cost has brought substantial rebound to the real estate sector. On the other hand, the policy of local government restriction on purchase policy began to withdraw gradually, and the central bank declared support for reasonable housing demand. Multiple factors stimulate industry inventory and sales at the same time improve, and after the rise of non bank finance and banks, the real estate price effect will be stronger and stronger. Therefore, banks and real estate sectors are still promising.

For the brokerage sector, Haitong Fund believes that this is more of a phased theme, and now needs careful attention.

Chen Li, deputy head of research and chief strategist of UBS Securities, believes that the reason why brokerages are active is, on the one hand, active market transactions, and daily turnover is 2 times the average volume of the whole year. On the other hand, the market has many expectations for the future development of securities companies. For example, stock options, stock index options and large T+0 transactions will enhance the valuation space. If the market can continue to be active until the Spring Festival, the stock market will continue for one or two months. However, if the subsequent share price continues to push upward, it is also a bubble component. At present, the securities dealers are not cheap, especially the small dealers' market rate has been relatively high in the world.

Dacheng Fund is still optimistic about the banking sector. The huge increase in the weight of the bank shares may be related to the incremental capital push. On the one hand, as an important part of the marketization of interest rates, the deposit insurance system falls on the floor, which means that the policy of interest rate marketization will fall to the ground, and the market's policy concerns will be further eliminated. On the other hand, in the bull market expectations, bank stocks as a valuation depression, there is a strong demand for inflation, the future market will be a new high, and then "cattle" road, must rely on the banking sector. Therefore, Dacheng Fund will continue to be optimistic about bank stocks.

Dacheng Fund believes that the news has limited short-term impact on bank profits, but will have a potential impact on the industry as a whole.

It is reported that the central bank is expected to implement the deposit insurance system in January next year. Dacheng Fund analysis said that referring to the experience of foreign deposit insurance premium rate, it is expected that the differential rate of 0.04%~0.10% will be applied at the initial stage of the deposit insurance system, which may be reduced to about 0.01%-0.03% in the later stage. Accordingly, the negative impact of the income side of commercial banks is about 1%-3%, and the negative impact of net profit is less than 1%.

Potential impact: first, deposit insurance is a necessary stage of financial reform, which is mainly for the bank bankruptcy law. The deposit insurance system can avoid the spread of the bank's default to the whole system, and help to establish the bankruptcy and exit mechanism of financial institutions. The listed banks benefit from the merger and reorganization of the potential bankrupt banks. Second, according to the current news, the expected compensation limit is less than 500 thousand. Theoretically, it will drive the savings to the national high and medium sized banks with high prestige. The deposits of small banks (city commercial banks and rural credit cooperatives) may be losing pressure; the competition for deposits will increase; small banks will be forced to provide higher deposit costs; there will also be the pressure of deposit and diversion for the prominent retail banks, and the number of retail customers will increase instead of those of the public dominated banks. Dacheng Fund believes that, in general, the deposit insurance system has limited impact on short-term profits of bank shares, but it has a positive impact on the industry.

However, the Dacheng Fund calculates that the current 500 thousand insurance limit can cover most of the accounts, which corresponds to 13 times the per capita GDP in 2012 and 7.3 times the per capita deposit. The initial impact of the deposit insurance system is expected to be more moderate on the impact of savings deposits. In the context of state-owned banks as the main body, transaction convenience and service quality are also important considerations for customers.

Overall, the Dacheng Fund believes that the core element of the valuation center of the banking sector is not profitability but long-term risk expectations. The introduction of the policy will not affect the upward trend of bank shares, and there will be a significant increase in the value added banks as a valuation depression. (