Wu Guoping: After The Death Of A Bear, The Stock Market Is Heavy.

Stock index futures rose more than 6.43% today, and the market has been in a climax of climax. This rare historical rally, combined with leverage, is obviously forcing the bears to beat the bears.

From this we can see that there is a big pattern to make stocks. When the stock index broke through the downward trend line in the past 5 years in July, we hint that we should start building bull market thinking, then break through 2270 points in early September, form a big double bottom form, and then break through 2444 points in November, forming a larger class of weekly head and shoulders bottom form. We propose that the medium term target should be above 3000. The market is in accordance with our expectations.

Of course, there are several adjustments in the middle. We thought it would last for a while. As a result, the stock index continued to be empty. In this respect, it showed that the strength of doing more power further confirms the current bull market; on the other hand, it also shows that once the bull market is formed, it is a kingly way to make more progress. Stock It will be quite active.

Today's boom means market The mood reached a clear climax. When the bear broke down, the stock index broke down. In the short term, the stock index still has a strong impetus, but then it comes. Phased Rest is indispensable. Looking back on history, even if the bull market is 06 or 07 years, there will be a one or two month break in the middle. It is worth noting that even in the turbulent stage, stocks are still colorful.

All in all, we will enter the stage of heavy stocks and light market. We must emancipate our minds and treat them with bull market thinking. For example, there are limited opportunities for large cap stocks in bear markets, and the most important ones in the current stage are financial heavyweights.

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"The current price of bank shares has in fact reflected extreme economic expectations. But in fact, the possibility of such a prediction is not great, and the resulting valuation restoration will have huge room for growth. According to Qiu Dongrong estimates, the current bank stock price contains a reasonable ROE level is only below 10% digits. However, the actual ROE level of the banking sector is still up to 20%. Qiu Dongrong believes that even if the bank's ROE level continues to decline to 10% in the future, there will still be room for room to rise compared with the current stock price. This is the inherent logic of bank shares taking cattle.

In addition to bank shares, Qiu Dongrong feels that many blue chip chips have similar opportunities: "real estate stocks have similar logic. I am not optimistic about the real estate industry, but I am optimistic about real estate stocks." Qiu Dongrong believes that although the golden age of the real estate industry has basically ended, the industry as a whole will not have much room for growth in the future. However, the price of real estate stocks is now implying that the real estate market is seriously unsalable and the price of housing is obviously down. However, with the introduction of a series of policies such as interest rate cuts and real estate support policies, it is unlikely that this extreme risk will emerge. At present, the quality of real estate leading enterprises and assets is relatively safe, and cash flow is also healthy. Under this background, the valuation repair market triggered by the release of favorable policies is also considerable.

Although he has made substantial profits in bank shares, Qiu Dongrong believes that any undervalued asset should have a reasonable return process. While fully enjoying the return of bank shares, Qiu Dongrong has begun to lay out a wider range of new value depressions. With the help of HSBC's latest "PB-ROE" model (that is, the selection of low PB and high ROE stocks), Qiu Dongrong is more active in trying to find new value depressions outside the financial sector. He said that with the gradual internationalization of A shares, the A share structure and investment philosophy will also become more mature. The concept of big market, small cap, value and growth will become more and more blurred in the future market. "Good price good company" will become the only standard. Therefore, it is the core of the market to explore the opportunity of plate and individual stock from the wrong pricing angle of price and value deviation.