ICAC12 Monthly Report: Global Cotton Imports Continue To Decrease For Third Years.

Recently, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) released the December report.

In 2014/15, despite the growth of 3% of the global cotton growing area to 506 million mu, the world's cotton output is expected to be stable at 26 million 200 thousand tons.

Due to the decline in yield, India's planting area increased by 5%, but its output remained at 6 million 800 thousand tons.

China's planting area decreased by 9% to 64 million 500 thousand mu, while the unit yield increased by 3%, to 101.2 kg / mu, and the output would be reduced by 6% to 6 million 500 thousand tons.

US cotton production is expected to increase by 27% to 3 million 600 thousand tons.

Pakistan's output will be stable at 2 million 100 thousand tons.

The above four cotton producing countries account for 80% of the total cotton output in the northern hemisphere, with an overall growth of 2%, which is 23 million.

By contrast, the cotton planting area in the southern hemisphere has shrunk by 12%, to 45 million mu, the lowest level in 5 years.

Assuming that the average yield per unit area is 57 kg / mu, it is estimated that the output of cotton will be reduced by 18%, to 2 million 600 thousand tons, or 10% of the total cotton output in the world.

The enthusiasm of cotton growers in Brazil has declined. Despite the strong support from the government, the current cotton price is still difficult to offset the production cost. The cotton planting area in Brazil will be reduced by 13% to 14 million 625 thousand mu this year. According to the output per kilogram of 101.5 kg / mu, the output is expected to be 1 million 500 thousand tons and the same ratio is down 13%. Even so, Brazil is still the largest cotton producer in the southern hemisphere and the fifth largest cotton producer in the world.

Australia continues to suffer from drought. The planting area is reduced by 28% to 4 million 230 thousand mu. The shortage of irrigation water leads to the decline in unit production. The Australian cotton output this year will decrease by 35% compared with the same period last year, with only 580 thousand tons, the lowest level since 2009/10.

The planting area in South Africa and East Africa decreased by 7%, to 21 million mu, but unlike the previous year, adequate precipitation improved cotton production conditions, and the yield per unit area increased by 6%, reaching 15.8 kg / mu, and cotton production was 329 thousand tons, down 2% from the same period last year.

In 2014/15, global cotton consumption will increase by 3.8% to 24 million 400 thousand tons.

The top 5 cotton producers in the world are China, India, Pakistan, Turkey and Bangladesh.

China's domestic cotton price decline, coupled with the government's support policy in the textile industry, will stimulate China's cotton consumption to 8 million tons, but this level is lower than the average annual consumption of 9 million 500 thousand tons in 2004-2012.

India's consumption is expected to grow at 5 million 300 thousand tonnes, which has increased for third consecutive years, but the increase will be lower than the previous two years, mainly due to the weakening demand for cotton yarn in China.

Pakistan's consumption will increase by 2% to 2 million 300 thousand tons.

The government of Pakistan has increased support for the textile industry, including tax rebate policy to strengthen the value of the textile industry chain, but power supply is still a major problem affecting textile production.

Consumption in Turkey is expected to grow at 1 million 500 thousand tons, up by 4% over the same period last year, and Bangladesh will grow by 1% to 954 thousand tons.

The volume of global cotton trade this year will be reduced by 1 million tons to 7 million 900 thousand tons, and imports have declined for third consecutive years.

China's imports will be less than 2 million tons, but imports from outside China will increase.

In 2012/13, imports from outside China increased by 19% to 5 million 200 thousand tons, compared with 5 million 900 thousand tons this year, up 4% from the same period last year.

Bangladesh, Turkey, Vietnam and Indonesia will become the largest cotton importers outside China.