Wu Xiaobo: Why Do I Never Stock?

In December 5th, the stock exchange in Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities exceeded one trillion yuan. On that day, when I was on a business trip in Shanghai and saw a waterfall like exclamation in my circle of friends, I went to the bathroom to wash a cold face, and then asked myself in the mirror: "are you moving?" after deciding the answer is "no", I turn on the computer and write down the title of this column.

A few days later, in the afternoon of December 9th, when I was writing the last few paragraphs for this article, the stock index plummeted 5.43%, fell 2900 points, and the two cities trading volume exceeded 12 thousand yuan.

In this dramatic moment, there is no fluke and no sorrow in my heart.

Because, as the title shows, I never stock speculation.

If I say that the Chinese stock market is a freak from the first day of birth, perhaps no one will object to it.

The two exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen were established at the end of 1990 respectively. At the beginning of their founding, the system was very rough and almost without top-level design. Most of the first listed companies were local small and medium-sized companies in East China and Southern China. Several of the so-called "old eight stocks" in Shanghai stock market were registering enterprises with a registered capital of 500 thousand yuan.

In August 1992, 1 million 200 thousand people were competing for stock warrants in Shenzhen. The scene was out of control, the government was smashed, the police car was smashed, and Beijing discovered a "super large oil field" in the runaway. After two months, the securities and Futures Commission was established, and the right to issue shares gradually increased. In 1997, two of them were placed under the unified supervision of the SFC. In this period, the decision-making layer formed a very strange strategic design: China's capital market should serve the state-owned enterprises.

A large number of troubled state-owned enterprises "rubbed the bathing", dressed as Bai Fu Mei, was hung on the market. A Hongkong securities analyst named Zhang Huaqiao even thought that the state-owned listed companies were rarely manipulate in the financial reports.

The Shanghai stock exchange was established and the Shanghai stock exchange was established.

There was also a very strange sight in that year: all the ministries and commissions allocated two to three indicators of listing. Even the Communist Youth League and the all China Women's Federation were no exception. These departments did not have the right enterprises, and their indicators were sold on the market. The price was about 20 million yuan. Most of the local state-owned enterprises and private enterprises listed in that period were the "gray channel".

Those "white Fu Mei" are dressed up beautifully in the financial statements, but the system and system have not changed. They can not afford to see a false face. Of course, after several years of listing, the enterprise soon fell into a quagmire and became the so-called "shell resource". At this time, snipers appeared in the two tier market, they were called "makers".

Through the low price acquisition of the Uncirculated "internal employee shares", the makers become the actual controllers of these enterprises, and then they are booming in the two tier market.

In May 19, 1999, the stock market suddenly blowout for many years, forming a "5. 19 market". Some unknown enterprises, such as billion on technology, Yin Guangsha, Zhongtian Technology, and so on, suddenly rose day by day, stirring everyone's heart, behind them was the greedy Carnival of the makers.

At that time, the dealer's control of share price almost reached his own level. I once recorded such a detail in "big defeat 2": in February 18, 2000, the actual controller of Lvliang's first big banker and Zhongke entrepreneur started to celebrate his new marriage. His trader used the "scientific and precise" method to control the fluctuation of stocks, so that the closing price of Zhongke entrepreneurship stopped at 72.88 yuan.

The trader handed his boss a gaping gift in his own way.

By January 2001, economist Wu Jinglian likened the Chinese stock market directly to the casino, and even thought that the former was not as good as the latter. "There are rules in the casino, for example, you can't read other people's cards.

And in our stock market, some people can see others' cards, cheat and cheat.

We can say that sitting, hyping and manipulating stock prices are the best.

Wu Jinglian further revealed the institutional defects of China's stock market: "because management has positioned the stock market as a financing tool for state-owned enterprises to finance services and tilt to state-owned enterprises, the companies that get the listing privileges can be issued at a high premium, and the money in the hands of the holders of the Tradable shares has been misappropriated, thus making the stock market a huge" rent-seeking arena ". Therefore, we must negate the policy of" stock market financing for state-owned enterprises "and" the way of the government to support the market and enterprises to collect money ".

The first generation of dealers in Lvliang crashed into a stock market crash after the spring of 2001. With the emergence of the second generation of Representatives, such as Tang Wanxin and others, their handwriting became more and more large, holding high the banner of mixed operation, raising stock prices frequently with M & A themes, and building capital platforms by attracting large amounts of private capital. In Tang Wanxin's own words, "poisons poisons" were the last ones in 2004.

All the stones are burning.

In the years that followed, such famous dealers as Tang Wanxin and Lvliang, who seemed to be on the table, seemed to have decreased, but the culture of the merchants had never vanished, and they began to stealth in all kinds.

In the business place, it continued to fight in the identity of "underground death squads", and the stock market characteristics summarized by Wu Jinglian did not seem to have been fundamentally changed.

Before and after 2007, I had been a host for a period of time in the "China operator" column. In order to find out the truth of the listed companies, I chose five or six companies with excellent performance in stock price to do sample surveys, including the scandal of a long time.

I went to these companies to do field visits, interview with the chairman, check the company's performance and stock price volatility, and I came to a conclusion which is not beyond my expectation: there is almost no correspondence between the fluctuations of these companies and their stock price fluctuations.

In a company, I asked the chairman, "why is your stock price very volatile recently?" he asked the cameraman to turn off the camera and then whispered to TIGI, "because the broker is changing hands these days, the cost of changing hands is 12 yuan.

On the first day of its birth, the stock market is a freak. It has always served for the state-owned enterprises, now called blue chips, and endorsed the monetary policy of the state. On the wall of the New York stock exchange, there is a saying: "protecting the interests of minority shareholders is protecting the interests of all shareholders", which is a mistake in China's stock market.

The stock market has never regarded the share price as a barometer of the company's value. Therefore, people who believe in Buffett's theory of value investing have never earned a penny in this respect. Instead, it is the "adventure of the vultures". Just as Milan Kunde once wrote, "things are always more complicated than you think". The stories in China's stock market are more obscure than you think. The answers in China's stock market are even darker than you think. The answers in China's stock market are even darker than you think.

The basic performance of the stock market is not only related to the basic performance of the listed companies, but also has nothing to do with the basic performance of China's macro-economy. It is a capital market which is seriously manipulated by the administrative power. Its standard is not value mining, technological innovation, industrial upgrading, but "the editorial of the people's daily + shell resources + M & A + the interests of state-owned enterprises".

In this round of stock market turmoil since the fourth quarter of this year, the above characteristics have not been improved, and even some stocks have proved the ability of "bad money". It is hard to imagine that a normal investor can make rational investment decisions in such an environment.

Robert Hiller wrote in the book "finance and good society": "finance should help us to reduce the randomness of life instead of adding randomness. In order to make the financial system work better, we need to further develop its internal logic and the ability of financial to match pactions between independent and free people - these pactions can make everyone live better."