Dr. Guan Explained: The Growth Target Rate Dropped To 7%.

For the first time, the conference put forward nine new normal forms of economic development. The old age and health industries have been taken seriously and will open up space for the development of environmental protection and new energy industries. How to set the first central economic work conference under the new normal? How to set the first central economic work conference under the new normal?

Xi's first central economic work conference since the "new normal" has ended. How will China's economy and policies evolve in 2015? At 8:30 on December 11th, the executive director of the Minsheng Securities Research Institute and the chief macroeconomic manager Dr. Qing you first invited the friends of the "expert friends" of the authoritative expert to interpret the following.

1. Dr Guan explained: the growth target rate dropped to 7%.

Guan Bo: This is the first central economic work conference since General Secretary Xi put forward the "new normal". It has long contents, wide coverage, many bright spots, elegant style, refreshing, and a new generation of think tanks has already taken shape. On several points of view:

1, "efforts to speed up the pace of reduction, increase in quality and better" means that the growth target rate will be reduced to 7%, the first is the next year's "downward pressure on the economy", two is the obvious increase in the growth of employment elasticity, ahead of this year to complete the employment task; three is to complete the 2020 target for the next 6 years, with an average annual growth rate of 6.6%. The goal will focus more on the elasticity of "left and right", but at present it will not be defined as an interval.

2, the biggest bright spot is the first time that nine new normal forms of economic development are put forward. Firstly, there is a large space for infrastructure interconnection; second, enterprises are going out on a large scale; third, the role of emerging industries, service industries and small and micro enterprises is more prominent; Fourth, the aging and health industry in the aging process of population; fifth, the market is gradually going to the competition of quality and differentiation, brand and experience will become the core standard of survival of the fittest; sixth, the carrying capacity of the environment has reached or near the upper limit, promoting the "green low-carbon cycle development new way", opening the space for the development of environmental protection and new energy industry;

3, "blue sky clean water", "immediate results", "environmental carrying capacity has reached or near the upper limit". The new formulation of environmental protection means an unprecedented increase in energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection. Next year, the environmental protection industry will receive top-down policy support and bottom-up demand support.

4, in the past, the positive fiscal policy was actually moderate. "Fiscal policy will be strong" means that the fiscal policy will be more active, and the deficit rate may be expanded to 2.5%. Public investment driven by PPP is still the core means of steady growth.

5, monetary policy materials continue to be loose, and the trend of external accounting falls. SLF and MLF are likely to take turns. But the emphasis on "tightness and moderation" means that the pace of monetary easing will fluctuate, especially in the second half of the year.

6, the three carriages will be more balanced, and the consumption and export increments will increase, but the stock of investment will remain great. In particular, there is still much room for infrastructure investment (infrastructure interconnection). Next year, it is expected to continue to maintain growth of over 20% and hedge investment in real estate and manufacturing. Investment in high speed rail, nuclear power and environmental protection.

7. Key points of work China has removed the "industrial structural adjustment", and the steady growth has been re placed in the priority task and placed the highest priority, which is the biggest difference from last year. Reflecting the current overcapacity, downward trend of real estate and potential downward trend of growth, the intensity of steady growth will continue to increase, the probability of fiscal deficit will increase and the easing cycle of monetary policy has not yet been completed.

8, optimization Economic development The spatial pattern will continue to be included in the six major tasks. The regional theme will maintain the heat. The coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei along the belt and the Yangtze River Economic Belt will be the top priority after the ebb tide, and the level is far higher than other regional planning. In particular, along the way and Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, all of them are masters of the work. The former is related to resolving major problems such as excess capacity, optimizing external assets structure and diplomacy. The latter concerns Beijing's urban diseases, haze and uncoordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. It will be implemented next year, and Beijing Tianjin Hebei plan will be introduced.

9, "the government's own revolution to drive important areas of reform, to the public. Entrepreneurship "Millions of innovations form a new driving force for development". The 2013 is the beginning of reform, 2014 is the year of reform and planning, and the 2015 is the year of reform and implementation. "Self revolution" and reform efforts are worth looking forward to.

10, why not mention real estate? Eighteen years ago. No attitude is the biggest attitude, that is, to the market. The government is only responsible for protecting the low end, carrying out housing reform and ensuring housing, and the rest are determined by the supply and demand of the market without systemic risk.

Overall, the economy will continue to shift gears in 2015, and the reform and transformation will continue to accelerate. After the valuation of the market and the logic of redistribution of residents' assets, the market may gradually shift to the structural market and follow the logic of reform and transformation. This is our basic view on this conference and next year's economy.