Tan Yaling: The Downward Trend Of The US Dollar Highlights The Serious Market Risk.

This week, the US dollar index of the foreign exchange market started from 89.047 points, and then the 4 day stayed at 88 points. The lowest point on the weekend was 88.047.

The main feature is that the US dollar fell against the euro and fell further against the yen, hitting a 11 year high against the Norway kronlong weekend, mainly due to falling oil prices and stronger US economic data than expected. Norway's Krona plunged central banks to cut interest rates unexpectedly.

The US dollar against the Norway Krona hit 7.3950 on Friday, the highest level since September 2003, then slipped to 7.3672, rising 1.1% in the day.

The US dollar fell to US $1.24 against the euro from $1.23 to US $1.2456 in the weekend.

The US dollar to yen exchange rate fell further from 120 yen to 117 yen. The yen performance in one week has changed considerably, one level per day.

The exchange rate of the US dollar against the pound fluctuated between us $1.56-1.57 and fluctuated narrowly.

The US dollar and the Swiss Franc exchange rate are the same as the pound exchange rate in the 0.97-0.96 Swiss Franc range.

The US dollar to the Canadian dollar exchange rate basically stabilized 1.14 Canadian dollar level, the weekend further increased to 1.15 Canadian dollars, the oil price decline has weakened Canada Dollar, the US dollar exchange rate rose 0.42% at the weekend, at 1.1568 Canadian dollars, slightly lower than 5 year and a half high 1.1591 Canadian dollars.

The US dollar maintained a level of US $0.82 against the Australian dollar, showing a performance of US $0.83 over the period.

The US dollar showed a jump of US $0.76 against the NZD exchange rate of US $0.78.

The trend of the foreign exchange market is very complicated by the environment. The technology and strategy cycle of the exchange rate itself needs to be adjusted urgently, especially the correction of the year-round level is facing greater challenges. The pressure of the US dollar depreciation strategy is huge, and the market comprehensive factors accumulate new risk pressure.

1, the dollar fundamentals are good and confidence is not good.

The dollar fundamentals of the week are facing significant upward momentum, but the strategy and purpose of the technology downturn are very clear and difficult.

The driving force for the rise in the US dollar is very strong, for example, in December, when consumer confidence in the US climbed to nearly 8 years high, gasoline prices and the improvement of the job market were expected to be an important factor in boosting the economy.

Michigan University's US consumer confidence index was 93.8 in December, the highest since January 2007.

In addition, the US consumer spending grew faster in November, and the drop in gasoline prices promoted consumer spending in the holiday shopping season, and strong employment growth boosted the economic outlook.

The retail sales monthly rate released by the US Department of Commerce in November increased by 0.7%, better than the market expected growth of 0.3%, and increased by 0.3% in October, up 0.5%.

However, the powerful message about the adjustment of US dollar strategy is that the US House of Representatives voted to pass an expenditure bill and agreed to grant us $1 trillion and 100 billion to ensure that most federal agencies can be pferred normally in September 30th next year, that is, the end of the current fiscal year.

An assistant to the House Republican leader of the United States said that the close vote of the house and Senate is the key to ensuring that the federal government will not fall into a standstill.

The economic fundamentals of the dollar and the effectiveness of the US dollar policy make the dollar depreciate more and the dollar depreciate.

2, the euro risk challenge intensified and pessimistic.

The biggest panic in the euro comes from Greece.

The uncertainty of Greece's political situation has made the stock market the biggest weekly decline since 1987, and has led to a decline in European stock markets, and the stock market has become the second worst performing market after Russia.

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The index is the worst, and has fallen by 44% so far.

This trend extended to Greek bonds, and Greek 3-5 year bond prices jumped to the highest level since the debt restructuring in 2012 on Thursday.

The Greek government launched a new presidential election in advance to exacerbate the financial market, especially the stock market crash.

The biggest fear factor is the possibility of a new Greek government, Greece.

One day plunged 10%, and the stock index fell 40% from its peak in March, the lowest level since July 2013.

The political risks of individual member states in the euro area, coupled with the economic slump and differentiation of Member States, make the euro outlook more pessimistic, including the attitude and response of the European Central Bank.

This week, European Central Bank officials agreed to take action again when necessary, and reassess monetary policy positions early next year.

This statement echoes the policy statement issued by Delaki, governor of the central bank in December 4th, which further demonstrates the difficulty of coordination in Europe. No matter inflation or employment is economic growth, the euro is very helpless, even the prospect is becoming more pessimistic, and the possibility of the euro's disappearance is further increased.

3, the risk of oil price will further increase the hidden danger of the crisis.

The international oil price slump is the focus of this week.

A week's oil price fell to 10-12%, and the day's oil price fell to 10%, which is a rare new market trend.

The fall in the main currencies is driven by oil prices, including the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar.

In particular, the Russian rouble collapse is even more worrying, or the explosion of the Russian crisis is the second round of global risk.

Russia's central bank announced on Thursday that it raised interest rates from 9.50% to 10.5%, and the ruble rose to a record low of 55.45 rubles instead of 1.

Russian central bank data show that the ruble dollar exchange rate has fallen by about 65% since the beginning of this year.

The sharp increase in interest rates by the Central Bank of Russia is a further warning of the plight of the economic outlook.

The Central Bank of Russia expects Russia's economic growth to be near zero in 2015-2016 years. Inflation will rise to 10% in the first quarter of 2015, which will increase pressure on Russian consumers.

The collapse of the rouble was due to the collapse of international oil prices, and oil was Russia's main export product and source of revenue.

Although Russia has substantially increased interest rates in two months in two months,

The sharp fall in Russia's economy is still critical.

Russia's foreign trade is facing huge losses as Russia's oil profit is 1/143 for the same period last year.

The decline of global oil prices has caused some large state-owned enterprises in Russia to be involved.

Take Russian oil company as an example, its profit in the third quarter of 2014 was only 1/143 of the same period last year.

Because it can not finance in the west, Russian oil has no money available, the company has asked the government to use the national fund to finance it, but has not yet been given final approval.

Whether the Western sanctions against Russia will induce a new round of financial crisis is the focus of the market attention, but it has undoubtedly brought a huge impact on the Russian economy, and may even become the fuse of emerging market crises.