Abe Shinzo'S "Lonely Defeat"

On December 11th, around 4 p.m., a white van TOYOTA moved slowly into the streets of samochuan City, Kagoshima, Japan.

When driving to a crowded corner, the vehicle stopped. A man in a white jacket windbreaker was standing on a white TOYOTA car under the protection of four bodyguards.

The man is Abe Shinzo, the president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. He will be here for the last Street speech before his prime minister's election.

"Although safety is the first, providing cheap and stable energy is necessary for national life and employment."

Andouble held the microphone and leaned against the fence to shout to the crowd.

This is Andouble's first speech in the canvassing speech after the announcement of the election of the house of Representatives.

Although international oil prices have fallen below 60 U.S. dollars, the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen caused by Andouble economics still makes the burden on Japanese people and enterprises increasingly dependent on energy imports. Under such circumstances, Andouble, who has been secretive about the restart of nuclear power, must not make a clear statement.

"We will push forward the energy policy under the understanding of everyone. Thank you very much."

After bowing, Andouble finished his speech.

During the entire 20 minute speech, few pedestrians stopped to listen carefully to what Andouble was talking about.

For the Japanese people struggling with the rise in consumption tax and the whirlpool of economic recession, elections are less meaningful for them.

Public opinion polls conducted by Asahi Shimbun in December 9th showed that the number of respondents who were "very concerned" in the general election accounted for only 29% of the total number, and dropped to the lowest level in all previous elections.

Japanese people seem to have lost confidence in changing Japan's status through the general election.

Lonely winner

In December 5th, the forty-seventh house of Representatives elections in Japan ended.

Japan's 295 small constituencies have 959 people, and the General Assembly will compete for 180 seats, representing 11 of the total proportion of the election area, representing 1191 people.

The number of candidates dropped by nearly 30% compared with the previous house election in 2012.

The reduction is mainly due to the opposition party.

With the support rate of the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan only 11%, the election of the house of Representatives has become unsuspense before voting begins.

Another public opinion poll conducted by Asahi Shimbun in December 9th showed that the current ruling Liberal Democratic Party will win more than 300 seats in the election of the house of Representatives, and the coalition government will have more than 2/3 seats in the house of Representatives, which will occupy an overwhelming advantage.

As the main opposition party, the Democratic Party is expected to win about 70 seats.

If this result is achieved, Abe Shinzo will be re elected as Prime Minister of Japan without any opponent.

However, 2/3 of the seats and no suspense reappointment do not mean that Abe Shinzo's "Andouble economics" has won the support of the masses. To a greater extent, the results of the election reflect more of the weakness of Japanese politics.

In December 11th, the results of the public opinion survey released by Kyodo news showed that the proportion of Japanese people who did not affirm the "Andouble economics" reached 51%, more than half, and the proportion of affirmation was 37.1%.

The support rate of Andouble's cabinet was 48.7%, and the rate of no support was 41.1%.

Even if he were elected prime minister, Andouble would not win the majority of the people.

What makes Andouble feel more lonely than losing people's hearts is that the "buddy" who fought with him is also away from him.

"Unlimited quantitative easing (QQE)" and "fiscal consolidation" are the two core contents of Andouble economics. However, as the makers and executors of the two core elements, the BoJ and the Ministry of Finance in Japan are increasingly issuing different sounds from Andouble.

In November 22nd, the cabinet of Andouble made a decision to postpone the increase of consumption tax. However, this decision made the Bank of Japan, which has already invested QQE fully and the Japanese finance ministry with debt reduction tasks, suddenly lost its "safety guarantee".

Without raising the consumption tax, "

"It will sail to a dangerous situation.

In the October monetary conference, the decision of the BoJ to expand the quantitative easing decision has led to a great divergence. Finally, it passed the risk of 5 to 4, while Andouble postponed the decision to increase the consumption tax, which accelerated the rapid pformation of hawks and doves in the Bank of Japan.

On December 9th, Shirai Hayayuri, a member of the Bank of Japan's monetary Committee, said in an interview with Japanese media that even if the Bank of Japan revised down its economic expectations, it would not mean that the central bank would take further measures.

Bai Jing was one of the 5 members who voted for the easing policy in October at the Bank of Japan interest conference.

Kuroda Higashihiko, governor of the Bank of Japan, who has always supported Andouble economics, has repeatedly expressed disappointment at Andouble's delay in raising the consumption tax.

"Japan's debt burden is still the highest in the world, and the government and Congress should be responsible for it.

The responsibility of the central bank lies in the completion of inflation.

In December 10th, Kuroda said in an interview with the media.

The government is responsible for taking measures to consolidate the finance. It is Andouble's promise to appoint Kuroda as governor of the Bank of Japan. However, after Kuroda started the QQE, Andouble betrayed his promise.

In the future, Abe, who is "disloyal", is likely to be isolated.

Sail into unknown waters

In December 8th,

Third quarter GDP final data released.

From the previous initial value shrank by 1.6% to 1.9%.

The three quarter GDP data exceeded most analysts' forecasts, and they were optimistic that the three quarter GDP value would be revised upwards.

The gloomy data of Japan's third quarter GDP uncovered a fact that the Andouble administration did not want to face - "Andouble economics" has failed.

Data released in December 8th show that the Japanese economy has experienced a fourth recession since 2008.

Andouble economics has always been in the "game" of the two forces.

In the tug of war between two conflicting policies, monetary stimulus and fiscal tightening, Japan's economic situation has not only improved but also deteriorated further.

In order to reverse this situation, Andouble will adjust his economic direction. He will break the balance between the two forces and turn to quantitative easing.

However, radical

It may bring the Japanese economy into a more strange and unknown sea area.

In the two years since the implementation of the QQE policy, the depreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar has exceeded 30%. Once the overall shift to quantitative easing has been made, the sharp depreciation of the yen will probably bring a fatal blow to the Japanese economy.

In December 4th, Alain Bokobza, head of global asset allocation at Societe Generale, warned in its latest report that the current situation in Japan is very similar to that in 2006.

If the dollar breaks 123 against the Japanese yen, the Japanese economy will face a risk of collapse.

"Andouble economics" can not achieve Japan's goal of maintaining a relative balance between fiscal prudence and loose money.

The volatility of the yen will exceed the market controllable category.

Alain Bokobza wrote in its report.

The US dollar to the yen exchange rate hit 123 will also open up the downward path of the Japanese stock market.

"This will be the limit. Once this level is broken, the positive correlation between the Japanese stock market and the yen will be completely broken.

Looking back at the historical trend in 2006, the sharp depreciation of the yen triggered the collapse of Japanese yen assets.

If the yen goes down wildly, Japanese bonds will face huge risks, which will lead to a sharp fall in the Japanese stock market. "

Alain Bokobza warned.

In September this year, it was predicted that the US dollar and yen would be "120 in a short time". Albert Edwards, another strategist at Societe Generale, believes that Andouble's successful re-election will open the door to the depreciation of the yen. He predicted that the US dollar to the yen exchange rate will reach 145 level in the first quarter of 2015.

The last dollar to Japanese yen hit this exchange rate in August 1998, and it was the yen's depreciation that pushed Japan into a deflationary quagmire that has so far been hard to escape.