Chen Shi: The Stock Market Operation Pattern After 3000 Big Shocks

This week, the biggest decline in the market since the current market, this fall is bound to come.

From 2000 to 3000, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 50%, while 3000 is an integer number.

Of course, more importantly, the recent market is too hot, the market almost even pulled 13 lines, the blue chip stocks dominated by brokerage stocks doubled over the past month, and accumulated too many profit margins. When no one was not optimistic about the brokerage stocks, the local risk came naturally.

In December 9th, this high line is actually a sign of the coming of the adjustment stage.

This round of market, from 2000 points along the way, has been accompanied by huge differences.

The empty side's view is that the real economy does not support Daniel.

The multidisciplinary view is that reform, pformation, interest rate declines and the surge in financing capital have led to the bull market.

At present, the economy is still not much improvement, but the real estate paction is beginning to recover, which is conducive to improving the market's expectation of economic recovery next year.

Reform, pformation and falling interest rates will undoubtedly continue to support the rise of the stock market.

For the stock market, there may be a big gap in the capital level, that is, the leverage fund may be compressed by management.

Of course, this needs further confirmation.

Because most brokerages operate in a more standardized way, even if they check the financing and securities lending violations, it is estimated that the impact on the market will not be too great.

Therefore, it can be argued that there is little change in the logic of supporting the stock market.

Then the bull market pattern of the stock market will not change.

This is a major premise.

However, because the market is rising too fast, it is bound to overdraft the future.

Obviously, the calf is healthier and more sustainable than the fast bull, and is more in line with the management's will.

Under the condition that the policy market of China's stock market is still effective, it is not ruled out that management will adopt appropriate measures to increase the speed of new shares, such as issuing new shares.

so

There may be twists and turns.

And the market level also has its own operation rules.

As far as technology is concerned, the possibility of turning to the stage of shock adjustment is really larger after the market has risen 50%.

In terms of the nature and cycle of adjustment, we think there are two possibilities: first, the first wave of bull market has been completed, and the reasonable target has been achieved at 3091; second, 3091 points belong to the third wave of the first wave of bull market, and this week began to adjust to 4 wave.

If the first trend, then

The first wave has reached the top of the 3091 point, followed by two wave adjustments for several months. The target target for the index adjustment will eventually be at 2500.

The second trend is that the bull market's first wave is still unfinished. In the near future, after the adjustment of fourth sub waves, the wave will push another wave, and the index high will reach 3500 points.

That is to say, after breaking through the high point of the big B wave in 2009, 3478 points will be adjusted to two waves.

Decision

The backbone of the big trend is still the mainstream blue chips of securities firms and banks, as well as electricity, coal, steel, colored, pportation, etc.

Cyclical blue chip.

At present, brokerage stocks have taken the lead in one to two times.

But bank stocks actually started to go out of the bottom, the market rate is still about double, and other blue chips such as coal are also limited. There is also a low valuation in the non cyclical industries such as consumption, medicine and so on, so the value depression of the first bull market is not yet fully filled.