A Shares And US Stocks On Ice And Fire: How Can We Move Forward?

A - strands roller coaster

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Under the backdrop of the data downturn, in the past few days, under the pull of financial sectors such as brokerages, A shares have been on the offensive. Shanghai stock index has hit 3100 points.

But on Tuesday's trading day, A shares plummeted 5.43%, the biggest one-day drop since August 31, 2009 (the 6.74% day's decline).

In the trading day of Tuesday, the financial sector of A shares declined the most, and in the panic mood, the electronic information sector also showed a nearly 6% decrease.

Over the past few days, the electronic information sector has followed a big increase of about 15% in the market, but the sharp drop on Tuesday brought a sharp pullback in the whole sector.

According to the financial inflow statistics of the SFC, a net outflow of 8 billion 500 million yuan appeared on the electronic information board on Tuesday, and a net outflow of nearly 2 billion yuan on Tuesday. If the outflow of funds on the Friday trading day was added, the net outflow of electronic information sector in the three trading days reached 11 billion 600 million yuan.

We think that the sharp correction of financial stocks after the crazy rise may be due to the withdrawal of profits from investors.

After the withdrawal of the main funds, the financial stocks will rise or come to an end, and the market will probably enter the consolidation period. At the same time, the electronic information sector will also be consolidated.

At present, the domestic macro economy has not shown any good signs. In such a big environment, electronic information enterprises may hardly be able to stand alone and publish favorable financial reports.

Under such circumstances, blind speculation may suffer losses.

On the just ended Wednesday trading day, the A share market rose sharply.

The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2940.01 points, up 2.93%; Shenzhen's index closed at 10545.5 points, up 4.24%.

Two cities A shares 186 stocks rose, 2116 stocks fell.

The volume of business decreased significantly, and the Shanghai market dropped from 793 billion 400 million yuan on the previous trading day to 535 billion yuan. The Shenzhen market dropped from 473 billion 100 million yuan on the previous trading day to 326 billion 200 million yuan.

Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin Securities: Although the improvement of fundamentals and liquidity can be expected, the accumulation of risks in the short-term trading level of the market is worth vigilance.

CICC: to maintain an optimistic view of the trend of A shares in the next 12 months.

The callback will be an opportunity to buy, and the lower real interest rate will encourage the logic of risk preference to remain unchanged. The logic of resident asset allocation structure is beneficial to stock assets. The logic of continuous reform in improving China's medium and long term growth quality and sustainability will remain unchanged.

Shen Wan's chief macroeconomic analyst Li Huiyong: the diversion of funds into the stock market will still be a big probability event.

For the large outflow of foreign capital, the reduction of industrial capital and the warning of management risk should be concerned. However, it should be seen that this is not the key factor to start the market, which will aggravate the turbulence of the market, but it will not change the trend.

The Great Wall Securities chief strategist Zhu Junchun: the fall of 9 gave the market a blind and optimistic lesson in investor education, but at the same time investors should not worry too much. The atmosphere of the bull market will not be destroyed because of the sharp rise in the stock market.

Next, there will be wide shocks. Investors are advised to sell higher and lower risk and control risk.

At the same time, the long beef gene will remain unchanged, and it will be possible to reduce interest rates in the near future.

In the future, we can also focus on underestimating blue chips and value plates.

Jufeng Investment: in the near future, we should not blindly chase financial stocks again. We can gradually reduce to the second tier blue chips, especially coal and nonferrous metals.

China's stock market plummeted

The US stock market is thriving. Thanks to the good economic situation of the US this year, the average GDP growth is approaching 4%, which is the best performance of the US economy in 15 years.

Driven by this, as of last Friday, the Dow index and the S & P 500 index respectively closed at 17958.79 points and 2075.37 points, and the two major indexes have been rising for 7 consecutive weeks.

Although the global economic data weakened on Monday, the US stock market was down sharply, the Dow Jones index closed down 0.59%, closed at 17853.70 points, the NASDAQ index closed down 0.84%, closed at 4740.69 points, and the S & P 500 index closed down 0.72%, reporting 2060.35 points.

But this still can not affect the upward trend of US stocks.

However, China's stock market appeared to be on the double day with the US stock market. Many of the stock companies have almost fallen to the lowest level in the year.

By the end of December, 10, the US stock market closed down to 58.90 US dollars in December, the lowest in the year. Youku potatoes closed 17.81 in December 10th.

This year's new listed companies are also lingering around the issue price, even below the issue price, such as Lok game, jumei.com, thunder and so on.

The I index, which reflects the stock market, is not rising or falling, but has fallen by nearly 10% since mid last month. It fell nearly 7% only last week.

According to the analysis of the industry, the recent rise of A shares is too "capricious", which to a certain extent attracted a lot of investment funds in the stock market quickly returned to China, resulting in the recent trend of stocks in the doldrums.

However, in spite of the objective reasons, this year's performance is closely related to itself.