Stop Letting Retail Investors Pay For The Bull Market.

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Why do you have a mind to work?

Over the past few days, with the A share market rising, many friends have called to chat with me about the stock market.

Many people wonder why the stock market is so prosperous because of the economic slowdown.

In my view, the core logic is that the reform being pushed forward brings expectations to the common people.

Although the reform can not get instant results, if a series of institutional reform and measures make investors feel reliable, no need to wait for the results to happen, the capital market will also respond ahead of schedule.

"Many people have been watching the economic fundamentals. In fact, the capital market is very sensitive. The bull market in the stock market will generally be earlier than the" Fundamentals of the economy ".

Therefore, we need to know how far the current market will go. The focus of investors' attention is not economic fundamentals, but whether the institutional foundation of the bull market has been improved and the progress of relevant reform measures.

An agency friend analyzed.

Of course, this is not to say that economic fundamentals are not important.

The point is that at least for now, people do not think that the Chinese economy will have a hard landing in the near future.

Therefore, when the money making effect appears, in the context of easing monetary policy, cooling the property market and raising the leverage level of brokerages financing business, new capital will go into large numbers.

For these questions, Guotai Junan macro team in December 5th, a research report, "what is the logic of this big bull market? Where to go?" pointed out: "if the economic growth is going down, can the stock market go up? Actually, there are many such cases, such as 196-1990 of China's Taiwan, 1975 to 1980 of Japan, 1986 to 1990 of Taiwan, and 1999 to 2006 of South Korea.

In fact, the A share market itself has happened, such as 1996 to 2000.

In fact, the market share of A shares is not without trace.

An interesting phenomenon is that in August and September this year, A shares had seen 8 consecutive "red" rounds on Friday.

In general, some cautious investors may choose to reduce their positions on Friday because they are worried that there may be an emergency on the weekend.

As we all know, the central ministries and commissions often issue important news related to the economy at the weekend. Therefore, it seems now that the 8 consecutive "Friday" red plates at that time were the prelude to this "reform cow" and "expected cow".

It is worth mentioning that in the last round of the bull market's start-up phase, that is, from March 2006 to May, A shares also had 8 consecutive "Friday" reports.

Over the past few days, I have been discussing with some agencies about how far the A share market will go.

The conclusion is that the market is changing from "reforming cattle" and "expecting cattle" to "capital cattle". The bull market is far from over, and it may usher in irrational growth in the future.

Many agencies also remind that market persistence will be inversely proportional to the rate of increase.

If it goes too fast, the market may be short-lived.

Speaking of which, I feel a little worried from the excitement of the bull market at the beginning.

Looking at the history of A shares, there is no shortage of bull market.

But we will find that every bull market is not long.

What's more, because of the defects of the market system, most of them are paid for the bull market by retail investors.

Yesterday, a friend came to ridicule the big bull market from 2005 to 2007: "Government: 3000 points, Broker: 4000 points, fund: 5000 points."

This is not enough for retail investors. "6000 points!"!

After reading it, besides being ridiculous, it also makes people feel sad.

In view of this, A shares no matter how high they can rise, in fact, there is little significance.

The key is to be able to sustain long cattle.

This requires that A shares become a healthy market and become an investment channel for ordinary people to maintain their value and increase their value.

This is bound to require fundamental reform of A shares.

After waiting for seven years, A shares finally welcomed the big market again.

This wave of market, A shares and how to deduce? Now think, this is not very important.

It is important that, with the help of the current wave of market share, A shares have finally reached another important moment in the A share market reform.