Viscose Staple Market: Slowing Down (12.19)

Short staple market prices are stable, oil works start low, part of the low price reluctant to sell. Downstream procurement is still not active, the quality cotton in Shandong area is 2900-2980 yuan, and Xinjiang's inner velvet is 2600-2700 yuan.

The price of cotton pulp has fallen off, and the pulp plant has been in operation. Stock Both are low, and at the margin of profit and loss, they are reluctant to sell at low prices. In the East China region, the short silk pulp was negotiated for 6000-6030 yuan, and the special pulp was negotiated for more than 6200 yuan.

　　 Domestic dissolving pulp The price is stable, the market turnover generally maintains more than 6000 yuan, negotiated the center of gravity 6050 Yuan nearby, the downstream price pressure is widespread.

Viscose staple market is relatively quiet, price declines slow down, low market rumors reduce. The middle end of the mainstream offer maintained 11700 yuan, the focus of the transaction was 11600 yuan, some of the above 11500 yuan price transactions. The high end quote is 11900 yuan, the transaction center of gravity is 11800 yuan, slightly low turnover has 11700 yuan.

Viscose filament market prices are stable, the market at the end of the year to withdraw funds, trading atmosphere tends to be gentle. Market negotiations generally stable 120D at 35000-38500 yuan / ton.

Jiangsu Sirospun The overall price of cotton yarn is weak. Siro spinning 30S negotiated at 17300-17500 yuan / ton, and the market atmosphere was low.

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Recently, Zheng cotton main contract 1505 basically maintained at 12700 yuan / ton -13200 yuan / ton range shock, upward impact kinetic energy near 13200 yuan / ton pressure. For the cotton price trend in the later stage, I believe that the textile supply market has not yet improved significantly in the current textile market, while the supply of new cotton has been increasing. It is expected that cotton prices will continue to be volatile in the short term, and the middle and long term will remain empty.

According to China cotton information network survey data, as of the end of November, textile enterprises in the warehouse cotton inventory of 501 thousand tons, an increase of 18 thousand and 600 tons from last month. Of those surveyed, 37% reduced cotton inventories and 44% increased cotton inventories. The stock of disposable cotton in textile enterprises was 676 thousand and 100 tons, an increase of 22 thousand and 400 tons from last month.

The main reason for the increase in storehouse inventory and disposable inventory is: as the end of the year draws near, some textile enterprises have increased the procurement work of Xinjiang cotton in order to obtain quotas, so as to finish the procurement work of Xinjiang cotton and get more cotton quotas by the end of December. Xinjiang's new flowers are coming out of the border, and some of the new inland banks are adding new territories cotton. Cotton prices are relatively stable and remain low, and textile enterprises will increase their willingness to purchase raw materials. Even so, the current industrial inventory of textile enterprises is still low, showing that the downstream textile consumption of cotton is not optimistic.

Look at the current situation of textile enterprises. According to the survey data of operating rate in November, the average operating rate of textile enterprises above designated size is 81%, which is lower than that of 89% in the same period last year. Compared with the operating rate of textile enterprises in recent two years, the operating rate in 2014 was lower than that in the same period last year, except for two months in the beginning of the year. The reason is that nearly 50% of enterprises say that the order is insufficient.

The difficulty of spot sale of Xinjiang cotton further reflects the weakness of consumption. The cotton situation analysis meeting held in Beijing on 16 may, Liang Dongya, vice president of the Xinjiang Cotton Association, said that at present, the processing capacity of the Corps reached 67% of the pre production, and the storage capacity was about 1100000 tons. The sales volume was 250 thousand tons, occupying 13%-14% of total output. This year's sales speed is lower than the historical level, and sales have increased greatly. More than 60% of the Corps is picked by machine, and the northern Xinjiang hand picked is basically sold out, and the latter will continue to increase sales of machine picked cotton. The problems faced by the corps cotton sales now are: transportation is difficult and the cost of transporting new flowers is greatly improved. Sales are difficult and target prices protect the interests of cotton farmers, but business enterprises are in great difficulties.

The difficulty of cotton sales in the Corps also basically expresses the aspirations of all the cotton processing enterprises in the market, and further reflects the weakness of the current textile consumption.

On the 16 day, the Ministry of Finance issued a document. China adjusted import and export tariffs on the 1 date of January 2015, and continued to implement a sliding tax on a certain quantity of cotton imported from the tariff quota. The information is quite different from the principle of non issuance of quotas in 2015. The adjustment of import policy actually loosened the import threshold without the import quota textile enterprises, and under the circumstances that the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices was further narrowed, it was expected that the outer cotton would fall to a certain extent or would arouse the enthusiasm of domestic textile enterprises to import.

According to statistics, as of December 18th, the price difference between home and abroad has been reduced to -67 yuan / ton under sliding tax, and the price difference of 1% tariff quota is 2347 yuan / ton.

To sum up, under the background of the current textile consumption in the lower reaches of the cotton industry, it is still expected that the cotton price will remain under pressure in the late stage. But under the support of "good cotton is hard to get" and the replenishment before the Spring Festival, there is limited space for short-term downflow. However, the shortage of orders is still the "culprit". Before the fundamental problem is solved effectively, cotton prices are expected to remain in the middle and long term.