About E-Commerce: Depth Analysis Of Bonus Period, Elimination Period And Maturity Period Of Online Retailing

The value of aSPI-core's value will have a symbolic significance to China's electricity supplier industry.

Because this means that the shadow of the price war enveloped in the business circle is gradually dissipating.

The competition in the electricity supplier industry has become more diversified.

ASPI-core (Alibaba Shopping Price Index-core), the full name "Alibaba online shopping core commodity price index", is a measurement mainstream issued by the Ali Research Institute.

Index of change in paction price.

According to the latest data released, 10 aSPI-core rose slightly in 2014, or 0.53%.

Compared with the same period last year, aSPIcore fell 1.33% compared with the same period last year, but the decline was about 0.3 percentage points compared with last month.

If the observation cycle was traced to the 2011 detonated by the Chinese e-commerce industry, aSPI-core showed a more interesting trend.

Until the first half of 2013, aSPI-core remained at a low level below -4%.

The intuitive understanding is that the average price of China's mainstream online purchases fell by at least 4% a year before that.

But since the second half of last year, the aSPI-core index has improved significantly.

In just half a year, aSPI-core rose from -5% to -2% level and increased to -1% this year.

At present, aSPI-core has approached the critical point of rise and fall.

The value of aSPI-core's value will have a symbolic significance to China's electricity supplier industry.

Because this means that the shadow of the price war enveloped in the business circle is gradually dissipating.

The competition in the electricity supplier industry has become more diversified.

Never been seen blindly pressing and embracing, the brand's attitude toward the electricity supplier has changed dramatically in the past 180 years.

Never trust to be careful to try again to double 11, the crazy rush to buy, "chopper" family is more intuitive to witness the Chinese electric business step by step into all aspects of our life.

For the businessmen who are immersed in it, every aspect of the electricity business will affect their nerves. The industry price trend represented by aSPI-core is undoubtedly the main nerve that makes them love and hate.

Taking the turning point of price change as the benchmark, we divide the development of an industry into three stages: bonus period, elimination stage and maturity stage.

Each industry will exhibit distinct characteristics at different stages of development.

Bonus period: destroy the high premium

How does e-commerce penetrate and influence an industry step by step?

We believe that this is first reflected in the elimination of the high turnover rate of traditional circulation industry.

The performance of this stage is very simple, that is, simple and brutal price war.

First, e-commerce is fighting price war with traditional industries, which belongs to the bonus period of e-commerce.

When the online market was detonated and a large number of consumers and businesses poured in, the price war evolved into a competition between sellers and sellers.

The industry also quickly moved from the blue ocean market to the Red Sea market.

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This evolution rule has been verified in almost all industries.

3C and the largest number of consumers online shopping

The industry has already completed this stage.

3C products are very standardized and easy to match prices, so small concessions can also attract users.

In the past few years, Jingdong and Suning and Gome's abuse can be regarded as the first stage of 3C products.

Clothing business started with Taobao and Taobao.

As a non-standard category, although clothing is difficult to directly compare prices, the advantage of online prices relative to the line is too obvious, so the clothing business is also based on Taobao, the traditional industry has launched a devastating offensive.

3C and clothing are the leading categories of domestic electricity suppliers, and they have already completed the first step of electronic commerce.

And a large number of products are emerging from maturity to maturity. They are experiencing this stage, such as home, mother and baby, food, and the subdivision categories such as underwear, which are backward in the process of e-commerce.

At this stage, the industry is characterized by an avalanche of prices.

Home textiles is a very typical industry.

As a main category of household products, home textile business has been growing rapidly in recent years.

Although the scale of home textiles has already broken through billions of dollars, it still keeps increasing speed every year.

One of the core reasons for the explosion of the home textile market is the low price.

According to a study we have done, the operating efficiency of the home textile category under the line is low in the clothing and textile industry, which makes the price increase rate of the traditional brand higher.

At the same time, the location of home textiles leading faucet under the line of Luo Lai and Fu Anna is high and medium end, and its selling price is also high.

Therefore, home textile business can at least reduce the price of products from two aspects: first, the development of public goods; two, the use of efficiency advantages to suppress the traditional brand's high markup rate.

In fact, the prices of traditional home textile brands like rolls and fuanna are much lower than those on the offline.

At the same time, they have developed sub brands which are specially priced for Internet channels.

Even so, Taobao is still full of products that are much cheaper than them, and these products have been favored by more and more online shoppers in recent years.

Thus, over the past four years, the price of the home textile industry has gone down to a higher level every year, and there is still no sign of stabilization.

There are also underwear industries.

In recent years, from thermal underwear to women's underwear, the industry has launched a comprehensive price war.

The addition of traditional brands such as the Antarctic and north polar fabrics has pushed the competition to the white hot.

The first stage of e-commerce is the extension stage of the industry, and also the stage of barbaric growth.

For e-commerce, the purpose of this stage is to establish a "status" in the circulation system.

At first, the main competitors of the electricity supplier were offline traditional industries, and then gradually pformed into online peer competition.

Although the electricity supplier has gained market share during this period, profits are deteriorating at a faster rate.

Elimination period: reshaping the industrial structure

Of course, the price can not go down indefinitely, it will eventually stabilize at a certain level.

At the industry level, most of the subdivision categories of clothing are now in a stable state, and so are the 3C products.

From the point of view of management and competition, the price stabilization point is the critical point of the whole industry going to small profits, and even the loss of some sellers.

The fundamental reason behind this is the efficiency of e-commerce, which determines its minimum price increase rate.

In the 3C appliance industry, the main business identity is channel providers.

In these industries, electricity providers rarely cut into the upstream supply chain and brand links.

After a few years of high price war, the industry basically left behind its own Jingdong and actively take the brand of Tmall electric city.

Suning, Gome and other traditional appliance chain giants are still in the stage of breakout online.

Because of the higher efficiency of electricity providers in these industries, as long as they can take a firm foothold in the industry, and traditional enterprises do not make corresponding changes, the small profits of online businesses can basically judge the chronic death of enterprises under the line.

The situation in the clothing industry is relatively complicated.

First of all, the development of China's offline apparel industry is not mature enough, and the lack of a large brand with wide influence has added many variables to the clothing business.

Amoy brands try to turn over the Internet, traditional brands are hesitant about e-commerce, and factory brands are eyeing the consumer market. These factors have led to a flash in the pan of emerging brands.

On the Taobao platform, the annual average elimination rate of clothing brand 100 is even more than 50%.

Secondly, China has a very perfect and powerful apparel industry chain, and China's exports of textile and apparel products even support the trillions of overseas markets.

Since the financial crisis, a large number of factories have shifted to the domestic market due to the obstruction of export channels, and they have been eyeing the new business mode of electricity supplier.

This makes the price war in the clothing industry extremely tragic.

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We believe that the impact of factory online on China's clothing business has long been underestimated.

For instance, it is at least very much related to the brand of these factories, which is simply not worth mentioning in the face of Taobao's factory brand.

And last year, a study found that in the relatively simple men's clothing industry, factory brands accounted for 1/3 of the Tmall market.

In the clothing industry which is not strong enough, the factory brand with cost-effective performance is more likely to give play to its advantages.

So, over the years, the domestic clothing business operators have been bogged down in the mire of price war.

Women's clothing should be said to be the most successful market of the Amoy brand, but it also failed to survive.

As early as 2010,, the price of women's clothing has basically stabilized.

After that, the rise of a large number of traditional brands and the emergence of many excellent Amoy brands even raised the price level of the industry slightly.

But since entering this year, fierce competition has further escalated the price war, and the overall price level of women's clothing industry has turned down again, and many Amoy brands have lowered their prices.

It is foreseeable that the new round of shuffle for Taobao women's clothing is inevitable.

The same phenomenon also appeared in the men's clothing industry.

The elimination period is the most painful and the longest stage. At present, most of the industries that are relatively mature online are at this stage.

After this stage, competition in the industry will gradually move from disorder to order.

Maturity: brand restores premium

In the fierce competition of the electricity supplier industry, is it possible to get rid of the constraints and go up?

The answer is: Yes, bags and cosmetics are two very representative industries.

　　箱包曾經是關注度非常高的一個行業，因為這個行業出現了一個知名度非常高的公司：麥包包。連續每年十倍的增長速度一度讓麥包包入選商學院的案例庫。背靠箱包生產基地，追求快速反應供應鏈的措施也讓麥包包成為了價格殺手。不過，麥包包的后續發展不盡如人意。麥包包未能再續輝煌的原因有很多，但這至少說明價格殺手并不能贏遍天下。麥包包之后，箱包電商再也沒出現過那么有影響力的品牌，該行業的品牌化進程在線上推進得也比較緩慢。