Conjecture: China'S Luxury Market In 2015

China's consumers who are facing more and more transparent information and more and more consumers are hard to keep up. Zhou Ting, director of the luxury goods industry and President of the Institute of wealth quality, believes that this is the inevitable trend in the future. With the diversification of consumers' access to information and purchase channels, the serious outflow of consumption caused by outbound shopping, Luxury goods In China, the same price is implemented in China, which is an active adjustment to the change of domestic consumption behavior. "Luxury stores have huge investment in China, and the consumption outflow has greatly reduced the sales of Chinese stores. The brand is bound to adjust the inconsistency of input and output through price leverage."

In 2014, the global luxury market experienced an unquiet year. The unprecedented performance of ultra-low single digit growth and even negative growth in China made the industry stumble in the pressure of transformation, acquisition and closing. Under such circumstances, brands have begun to deploy strategically before. What new trends will be introduced in the luxury market in 2015?

　　 Conjecture, luxury goods gradually achieve global parity

In 2014, the major luxury brands faced difficulties in China, and negative results began in the medium and first three quarters. As of the three quarter of last year, sales of wine and spirits Department of the world's largest luxury goods group (LVMH) fell by 7%; the French luxury giant Kering group's total sales in the three quarter increased by only 3.3%, while operating profit dropped by 3.9%; the Swiss luxury goods group, Richemont, fell 4% in the three quarter of. During the period, the luxury group adjusted its product prices. LVMH group, the world's largest luxury goods group, implemented the "Hong Kong equivalent price" for its "Yu Hong watch", and then followed the implementation of the 2014 full line new watch. At the same time, reporters had obtained accurate information from the Heuer brand marketing department, although not publicly announced, but its senior tabulation product line has implemented the global parity policy.

The big selling price is inconsistent with domestic and foreign, and is under the pressure of adjustment. On the one hand, such as "Kai Shang" Tian Ya luxury Plaza and other "Hong Kong equivalent" stores, take the free trade zone, bonded area tariff dividends; on the other hand, "sea scouring" tide allows cross-border shopping to shorten the click of the mouse for a moment. China's consumers who are facing more and more transparent information and more and more consumers are hard to keep up. Zhou Ting, director of the luxury goods industry and President of the Institute of wealth quality, believes that this is the inevitable trend in the future. With the diversification of consumers' access to information and purchase channels and the serious consumption outflow caused by outbound shopping, the implementation of domestic and foreign prices by luxury brands in China is an active adjustment to the changes in domestic consumption behavior. "Luxury stores have huge investment in China, and the consumption outflow has greatly reduced the sales of Chinese stores. The brand is bound to adjust the inconsistency of input and output through price leverage." Zhou Ting thinks.

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　　 Conjecture two, "light luxury" Fashion brand True colours

In the global environment of luxury goods, the latest reports of light luxury brands Michael Kors and Kate Spade show that, as of September 27th last year, the sales of Michael Kors in the same quarter increased by 16.4% in the two quarter, of which the growth rate in the North American market was only 10.8%, which was significantly lower than that in the first quarter. As of October 4th last year, the Kate Spade sales in the same quarter increased by 15.2% in the three quarter, half of the 30.4% in the two quarter. Michael Kors reported in the two quarter of last year that as of June 28th, group sales accounted for 37.9% of total revenue. In the explanation of the cost of sales, the word "including inventory sales cost" appears in the first sentence. According to this explanation, the cost of sales increased by 42.67% compared with the US $243 million in the same period in 2013. This also confirms the reason why the Michael Kors has caused a backlog of inventory due to the decision of "eager for success" and the big promotion in June.

Data show that in the past two years, the performance of Michael Kors has increased sharply and rapidly expanded, and wholesale income has exceeded retail income in the last fiscal year, which means that a larger proportion of revenue comes from discounted goods or wholesale channels. Its revenue in discount stores has accounted for about 1/3.

Zhou Ting believed that Light luxury brand The development of consumers will soon return to reason. The essence of luxury brands is fashion brands. The aura of future brands will not be so bright. Consumers will understand their true identity as high-end fashion brands, instead of having their products as a substitute for luxury goods. This also means that good fashion brands should take the design and quality skills to manage the tastes of consumers.

　　 Conjecture three, IPO does not play private equity fund thigh

In 2014, the financing of luxury industry became the main theme of private fund support, and a few cases of IPO ended in high and low prices. The industry generally believes that the 2015 luxury brand financing channels will continue this trend.

From the US private equity fund Blackstone Group LP Blackstone acquired 210 million Versace Gianni Versace SpA SpA 20% stake, to the private equity Clessidra SGR SpA disclosure has entered the exclusive negotiations on the acquisition of Roberto Cavalli Cavalli majority stake, luxury brands seek outside investment footsteps can catch up with each other.

Last year, several IPO cases, which had received close attention, did not achieve the desired results. Jimmy Choo was successfully launched in October last year, but the issue price range narrowed from 140-180 pence to 140 pence on the day of issue. Intercos SpA Ying Terry, the OEM manufacturer who originally planned to appear on the stock exchange in October, also urgently gave up the listing plan and sold a 43% stake to the US private equity Catterton Partners.

Industry analysts generally believe that the environment of luxury goods has led to a sharp decline in confidence in the issue of luxury brands and the cautious investment. The investment industry insiders say that the IPO plan for luxury goods will continue to decrease in 2015. Compared with the public offering of stock financing, private equity equity investment will also provide advanced management experience and various value-added services and expand procurement or sales channels in the process of capital injection, which will be more attractive and feasible for the luxury brands that are currently lacking in growth and are not popular with popular investors.