Foreign Trade Is Not Up To Standard Import Downturn Worries

According to customs statistics, in 2014, China's foreign trade import and export growth rate was only 2.3%, and its total export value was 26 trillion and 430 billion yuan (6.1974, 0.0004, 0.01%), of which exports were 14 trillion and 390 billion yuan, an increase of 4.9%; imports 12 trillion and 40 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.6%.

In the last year's "government work report", the expected growth target of imports and exports is around 7.5%.

The latest foreign trade import and export data are 5.2 percentage points different from the expected target set at the beginning of the year.

In response, Zheng Yuesheng, a spokesman for the General Administration of customs, said that the reasons for the failure to meet the standards were relatively complex, which was slower than the recovery of the world economy, and the comparative advantage of China's foreign trade and imports was weakening. The rapid decline of commodity prices in the international market and the import value were all related.

Data can clearly see that since last May, global commodities continued to decline, data show that from 504.5 in May 2014 to 437.7 in December, down 13.2%, which affected our import value growth rate was 3.3 percentage points lower.

"The difference between import and export trade is so great that commodity prices are a very important factor, especially the price of imports. The price of China's imports of commodities is falling more rapidly than that of export commodity prices, for example, the price of oil and iron ore imports has dropped by half."

Xiao Yaofei, deputy director of the international economic and Trade Research Center of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, pointed out.

Actually,

Growth and

The decline also reflects the relatively weak domestic demand for China's economic development.

"Domestic economic slowdown and weak domestic demand caused by domestic overcapacity are also an important factor in the decline in imports."

To meet the needs of investment and consumption, we need to look at the investment demand, the investment in new industries, infrastructure investment, real estate and so on.

The slowdown is slowing down investment demand, and consumer demand is hard to raise, so imports have declined significantly.

For the future trend of imports, Xiao Yaofei believes that the economic situation in 2015 has changed little, and the demand for the whole world has not been fully restored. Whether the world economy will deflate completely is not necessarily, but the demand will drop to a very low level. This is a big trend, so the low growth rate of imports will continue in the future.