Capital Accelerates Into PTA Futures Market

　　 Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are holding down oil prices.

After the new year's day, international oil prices are in Saudi Arabia. Gulf States Deliberately suppressed, the continuation of the trend of avalanche, two weeks fell 12%. Goldman continued to cut down oil prices to $40 / barrel in the near future. Then the UAE joined the ranks of Kuwait and Iraq to lower the price of crude oil from Asian customers to Saudi Arabia. In addition, the UAE insists on increasing crude oil production to 3 million 500 thousand barrels per day. Iraq also adhered to its capacity target of about 8 million barrels per day, and plans to produce 4 million barrels per day in 2015, higher than the current 3 million to 3 million 500 thousand barrels / day production level. On the other hand, the US crude oil output reached 9 million 132 thousand barrels per day in the early January, and the weekly ring ratio rose by 11 thousand barrels per day. The high productivity of the shale oil revolution in the United States is still at the stage of release. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States will continue to suppress oil prices before the growth trend of US crude oil is not reversed. strategy International oil prices will continue to fall.

　　 PX import volume surged, social inventory pressure higher

In December last year, China's PX imports reached the highest level of 1 million 178 thousand tons. In the same month, the domestic PTA plant took the largest parking repair operation in history. PX Consumption is limited, and PX's monthly ending inventory also hit a record high.

On the other hand, Asia's PX production capacity has entered an accelerated release cycle since last year. This year, the 1 million 600 thousand tons PX capacity of Sinopec Sinopec will be put into operation in the two quarter. It will be able to rush to repair the equipment with Tenglong aromatics 1 million 600 thousand tons after the Spring Festival. However, there are still new PX capacity deliverages in the peripheral countries such as India, while the current naphtha PX still has 50 to 60 US dollars / ton production profit. Under the background of increased supply and inventory pressure and the collapse of oil prices, it is expected that the PX price of raw materials will still be substantially lower.

　　 Terminal demand is turning pale, PTA supply pressure is increasing.

As of January 13th, polyester plant operating rate dropped to 80%, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate dropped to 66%. Tracking pet link cash flow and inventory, with the decline in raw material prices and terminal demand seasonal weakness, polyester production and marketing for five consecutive weeks to maintain a low level, the average stock rose to a level of 13 days, the cash flow also fell to 90 yuan / ton nearby, is expected before the end of Spring Festival terminal demand trend weakening continue, polyester link start up rate will decline, and then to the upstream raw material form drag.

In addition, since the large-scale shutdown of the PTA plant in December last year, the current operating rate has been maintained at 71%, and the spot price of PTA has reached 4280 yuan / ton, and the cash flow of 54 yuan / ton is calculated at the cost of processing 720 yuan / ton. If the processing cost of Yisheng 550 - 600 yuan / ton is calculated, the cash flow will still have 200 yuan / ton. Therefore, the new round of large-scale maintenance operation is difficult to take place, and terminal demand is gradually weakening, and the social supply pressure of PTA will also gradually increase. Yisheng has implemented the mainstream port self marketing mode since the beginning of January, and has gradually lowered the port's self raised price, guided the spot market to descend, and its January contract price has been lowered by 400 yuan / ton to 4600 yuan / ton, less than 200 yuan / ton of Sinopec and Hengli's 4800 yuan / ton, and the PTA spot market's price war and the market share competition also have the promotion sign.

Overall, despite the recent sharp increase in PTA futures positions, the penetration of funds is obvious, but in the background of the crude oil slump and the downward trend of terminal demand, there is still room for downside of PTA futures.