Today Is Only The Beginning Of The Bull Market In The Past 3 Years.

Nomura Securities held a telephone conference on China's future investment opportunities and problems.

At the meeting, Liu Mingdi, director of China stock research at Nomura, explained why the stock market went up some time ago.

The trend has been boldly predicted.

She believes that today is only the beginning of the bull market in the past 3 years.

"From the next three years, we think that 2015 should be the beginning of a 3 year bull market, so we call 2015" calf's early growth ". In the first year, it has to establish certain prestige.

Explain,

The rise is due to logic, not miracle.

The main reason is that the performance of listed companies is good, and it should rise.

And the stock market has not risen, which is not synchronized with the economy.

"Because it is possible that the company will not perform well when the economy is rising, but its performance is not good, and when the economy is sliding down, the performance may still be thickened because of the withdrawal of capacity."

This is mainly due to the series of reforms and macro policies China has adopted before making the possibility of thickening the performance of Listed Companies in China, consisting of several factors: first, the withdrawal of certain capacity.

The leading enterprises in the industry will have a price fixing capability and a higher market share after weaker enterprises withdraw. Their growth and return will be improved.

The second, first series of reform of the enterprise system will make the management run the company more corporatization.

Looking for Niu shares in the next 5 to 10 years, she thinks that it is still necessary to find domestic enterprises with innovative capabilities and brands.

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Although there has been a rare bull market in China's stock market since last year, the root cause is not the continuous improvement of our economy, but the great downward pressure on China's economy.

In the 3 quarter of 2014, China's economic growth slowed down to 7.3%, and from the perspective of power generation and other leading indicators, China's economy is still facing greater downward pressure, and even the risk of deflation is also significantly improved.

However, in this context, China's stock market has seen a marked rise, indicating the abnormal performance of China's stock market.

China's stock market performance is not necessarily related to the macro economy. So what are the factors leading to the current stock market? In view of the fact that the stock index has continued to reach a new high level since the second half of last year, the current stock market is mainly led by concepts, and the concept of Shanghai and Hong Kong through, along the way, and the free trade zone have been introduced in turn, prompting the rising stock index.

From this point of view, continuous singing has become an important reason for this round of bull market, which has again verified the fact that China's stock market is dominated by information rather than economic fundamentals.

Therefore, the fear of singing in China's stock market is not only the psychological demand of shareholders, but also the internal mechanism of stock market. The current capital market mechanism has not yet been straightened out, and the relationship between the stock market and the economic fundamentals is in a state of confusion, which leads to the fact that our stock market is more afraid of singing than other countries.

Of course, from this perspective, we should be more aware of the unpredictable nature of the potential risks of the stock market. There may be a "no sense" phenomenon in the rise and fall of the stock market, which may make the retail investors more vulnerable in the capital market. In the process of pure follow suit, the machine is the real profit-making, because the institutional controller has more voice power, and can sing around the stock market through concepts, news and so on, so as to achieve the profit target.