"Bull Market Logic" Is Changing Quietly.

stay U.S.A With the stock market falling for fifth consecutive days, Bill Gross, a well-known investor known as the "king of bonds", suggested in January 6th that investors should be cautious about investing in US stocks this year and that 2015 would not be a good year to get good returns.

In addition to gross, there is a growing trend in the outlook for US stocks this year. A variety of signs indicate that the "bull market logic" of the US stock market, which has been formed in the recovery stage of the financial crisis, is changing quietly. The logic or the end of the double wheel drive of valuation and performance may turn into a "single wheel drive" in the future.

　　 Market sentiment turned cautiously

U.S.A equity market Since its entry into 2015, it has not performed well. Data show that the growth rate of us non manufacturing activities slowed to a 6 month low, and the global oil supply surplus led to a further decline in international oil prices. The S & P 500 index hit a 2000 day mark on the 6 day after its record of the biggest single day fall in 5 days in 5 days, the first time in December 17, 2014.

Since the beginning of 2009, the US stock market has been like a rainbow for five years. At present, many industry agencies still do not believe that US stocks will fall in 2015. However, based on concerns about the potential risks of US stocks' future rise, Wall Street analysts' attitude towards us stock investment has become prudent.

In January 6th, in January 6th, Gross suggested that investors should be cautious about the US stock market this year, saying that the bull market of the US stock market is coming to an end, and that it needs to be satisfied with the low positive return in 2015. The time for adventure is over.

　　 Gross The 2015 will continue to be a "contending" situation, but high risk assets will become increasingly unpopular. He suggested that investors should consider "high quality assets with stable cash flow", such as treasury bonds and high Quality Inc debt, and low debt company stocks with attractive dividends and diversified business or revenue sources.

Mr drachan pointed out that in 2015, the shock of US stocks may be even more intense. If investors saw a 20% drop in US stocks in the first half of this year, we need not be surprised. He said that the risk of US stocks has been "self-evident", because the collapse of oil prices has led to the outbreak of a crisis in oil producing countries.

　　 Future materials show a trend of concussion

Over the past 3 years, the rise in US stock market has been mainly driven by the expansion of valuation and the steady rise in corporate performance. However, Goldman Sachs recently pointed out that the valuation driven logic of US stocks will be reversed in the next few years, and the price earnings ratio is expected to shrink. In Goldman Sachs's view, the main driving force for the future rise of US stocks comes from the growth of business performance.

In January 6th, Wall Street agencies downgraded the performance of the energy sector in the ten major industrial sectors of the S & P 500 index, making it the most bearish segment of analysts at present, and the level of watching is still deepening. Thomson Reuters data also show that Wall Street's performance of energy companies this year is much higher than that of any other sector. The agency's forecast for the fourth quarter of 2014 for the energy sector of the S & P 500 index was negative 19.8%, down from the previous estimate of 6.4%, while the forecast for the first quarter of this year was even worse, down 32.2%.

Analysts pointed out that the international oil price has fallen by more than 55% compared with the high level in the summer of last year, and it has fallen below the barrier of $50 per barrel. So far, it has not seen the bottom. If we wait for the oil price to stabilize, the market will be able to readjust the performance estimates of energy companies.

At present, in the industry organizations, Goldman Sachs Group, Barclays Group and Credit Suisse Group are less aware of the US stock market. They all think the S & P 500 index is at 2100 points in 2015, and the pace of growth is slowing down. The view of Societe Generale is more pessimistic, and the US stock market will show a downward trend in 2015.

David Corsten, head of Goldman Sachs Group strategy, said in January 5th that the US stock market would be in bad shape for the next six weeks, and that it would experience a trend of first decline, then rise and finally down again in 2015. Lo Jan, an analyst at Societe Generale, pointed out in his research paper written to customers in December 17, 2014 that the S & P 500 index is expected to decline slightly in 2015, as the US dollar continues to be strong and the new tightening cycle will emerge.

However, 22 Wall Street agencies, including J.P. Morgan and UBS, are still optimistic about the outlook for US stocks in 2015. They all think they will continue to rise, but it is unlikely that they will continue to grow at two digit growth for fourth consecutive years. At present, the average forecast value of the S & P 500 index for the above institutional strategists is 8.2%.