The Downward Pressure On The Economy In 2015 Is Still Greater.

The potential risks of macroeconomic operation in 2015 should not be overlooked.

Risk comes mainly from external pressure and internal engine failure.

External pressure includes: under the strong dollar, the pressure of capital outflow makes monetary easing no longer willful; the export environment is still uncertain, and exports can only continue to grow at medium speed.

The internal engine failure includes: the local infrastructure is suppressed under the traditional industries to leverage and the pressure of production capacity; the real estate industry is out of date, facing the risk of investment downfall; the debt financing of the city is heavily differentiated.

More and more signals indicate that the US deleveraging process has entered the stage of corporate and resident leveraging and government deleveraging.

Adding leverage to residents and businesses means a new round of credit expansion in the US.

In the past, dollar liquidity hoarded in financial institutions accelerated to the leveraged emerging markets due to the continued leverage of the US economy and no credit demand.

Substantial return on US economy and residents plus

Restarting means that US liquidity in the past flowing into emerging markets will return to the US.

If external liquidity is tight in emerging markets, capital inflows in the past can easily be reversed into large-scale capital flight, triggering a currency crisis.

In the future, we will see that the US dollar will enter a large appreciation cycle, while the emerging market currencies will continue to depreciate, and the US dollar will be more beautiful.

Although we believe that the strength of the dollar and the Fed raise interest rates, the probability of China's currency crisis is almost zero, because China has more than 3 trillion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange reserves, capital accounts are not fully open and the central bank has a strong intervention capability in the central parity of the RMB exchange rate.

But the risk is that the pressure of capital outflow may limit the space for monetary easing. Especially when the downward pressure on the economy increases and the monetary easing needs to be rescued, the central bank may be forced by capital outflow to offset the gap in the basic currency - the enhancement of the depreciation expectation - capital outflow - a bigger monetary gap of the basic monetary gap, and the final release of the monetary dose is not enough to save the weak real economy.

Export is the first engine to extinguish China's economy, and it is the export engine's extinction that has led to large-scale economic stimulus measures.

Externally, the developed countries have not yet completed the deleveraging cycle, and economic recovery is accompanied by trade rebalancing. That is to say, the recovery of developed countries is achieved by increasing exports and reducing imports.

Domestic interest rate funds push up exchange rate and labor cost rise is eroding export competitiveness.

On the system, the WTO dividend is gradually being replaced by protectionism of all countries.

In spite of the government's efforts to make the "one belt and one road" regional expansion policy for bilateral trade and efforts to make exports an important engine of economic growth, but with the constraints of exchange rate, labor costs and deleveraging in developed countries, the future export will not be changed significantly, but will continue to grow at moderate speed in recent years, and can only become a factor that will not drag the growth of the economy.

The downward economic risk of traditional industries under deleveraging

From the perspective of old economic growth mode, local governments lack effective budgetary constraints and real estate investment is in a long boom area, which directly stimulates the barbaric expansion of heavy industrial capacity, and there is always credit starvation. Credit supply directly affects the growth of real investment.

Therefore, the central bank chooses quantity control to directly control the liquidity gate, and when the central bank monetary easing stimulates the economy, the monetary pmission mechanism can immediately stimulate the economy and drive the expansion of capital expenditure, and the expansion of enterprise capital expenditure has positive feedback on the derivation of money credit.

Under the old economic growth mode, "wide currency" is easy to turn into "broad credit".

Although the central bank has committed itself to a series of measures to effect the liquidity of financial institutions hoarding to entities, the rapid fall in risk preferences of financial institutions and the weak willingness of capital expenditure in the real economy make monetary policy unable to conduct effectively.

Under the new normal economic situation, fiscal and tax reform should rectify the impulse of local government investment, population structure and excess inventory, and suppress new construction. The capacity of heavy industry will turn from insufficient to excess, and then turn to capacity. Real credit hunger will be suppressed.

Under the new normal, the development of "broad currency" into "broad credit" will no longer be easy.

But reform is not without cost, and the future economic growth can not be compared with the past local government debt expansion and real estate boom.

In addition, the past manufacturing industry chain has followed the expansion of real estate and local government debt. When the past engine of growth is extinguished, the manufacturing industry has an era of overtotal surplus, and the future will be de leveraging and capacity to be the main capacity.

In the process of capacity and deleveraging, the pressure of cash flow in manufacturing industry, which is overloaded with excess capacity, began to highlight, and external financing demand for its production and operation began to rise.

However, banks' concerns about asset quality will also constrict credit, which means that the external financing needs of enterprises will not be easily met, thus increasing the probability of their capital chain breakage and credit risk.