Seminar On "China Economy: 2015 Forecast"

On the morning of January 7th in New York, the National Committee of the US China Relations (NCUSCR) and the China Economic Research Center of Peking University jointly held the "China economy: 2015 forecast" seminar on the New York stock exchange.

The conference invited Yifu Lin, a Chinese economist, Yao Yang, Dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, Lu Feng, director of the China Center for macroeconomic research, economist Huang Yiping, Qin Xiao, chairman of the foundation, and Huang Haizhou, managing director of CICC.

In the meantime, Yifu Lin said in an interview that the Sino US economy will develop towards a win-win situation.

The US economic recovery will bring a turning point for China's exports, making China's economy healthier and more profitable.

China is now the world's largest.

China, like sharks in the market, is bound to affect the entire market by the rise and fall of its economic growth.

Yifu Lin said that since the third quarter of 2010, China's economic growth has slowed down.

Although China's economic growth in the past year is not as good as expected, the reason for its slowdown is mainly due to changes in the external environment.

In the next 15 to 20 years, China is still likely to maintain annual growth of 7% to 8%.

He said that China should fully grasp its own advantages and actively solve the problems arising from the dual track system.

He said,

The current economic gap with the United States is equivalent to the gap between Japan in 1950s, Singapore in the middle of 1960s, and South Korea in 1970s.

These economies use their late advantages to maintain growth of 7.6% to 9.2% in 20 years. From this point of view, China has 15 to 20 years of annual growth potential of 7% to 8%.

However,

It is also emphasized that in order to take advantage of potential advantages, China needs to deepen reform and solve the problems left over in the two track system reform. In the long run, it is the uneven distribution of social income and corruption.

He said that in the short term, the impact of the economic crisis in 2008 is incomplete, and that capital flows between developed and developing countries may lead to financial risks, which requires China to make preparations for risks.

As far as domestic environment is concerned, China has expanded rapidly in recent years. Although it has helped local governments to invest in infrastructure, they can not meet the needs of short term and long investment period, which may cause partial financial risks.

Yifu Lin said he hoped China would keep a clear head and see clearly its advantages and development potential on the one hand, and foresee risks as soon as possible, on the other hand, and solve them as soon as possible.

Turning to the causes of pollution, Yifu Lin pointed out that China is still dominated by manufacturing and economic development, coupled with a large consumption of energy.

But these will gradually improve.