Ye Tan: Looking Back On Past Happiness And Looking Forward To Future Worries

In 2014, GDP grew by 7.4% over the same period last year. This data is more than market expectations, and this data is not bad.

There are two bright spots in the 2014 economic data.

The National Bureau of statistics counted the online retail sales of 27898 billion yuan in the same year, an increase of 49.7% over the previous year.

Among them, the online retail sales of above quota units reached 440 billion yuan, an increase of 56.2%.

The total number of retail sales of social consumer goods is 262394 billion yuan, an increase of 12% over the previous year.

China's online sales have been growing rapidly in recent years.

According to the data of China Electronic Commerce Research Center, total retail sales in 2013 were 1 trillion and 880 billion yuan, 1 trillion and 320 billion yuan in 2012, and only 260 billion yuan in 2009, accounting for a rapid increase in total retail sales of consumer goods.

In April 16, 2014, the National Bureau of statistics issued the first online retail sales of units above Designated Size for the first time, 81 billion 500 million yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 51.7%.

Some economically developed provinces with manufacturing industries have gained growth momentum through the Internet.

According to the monitoring data of China Electronic Commerce Research Center, Zhejiang's online retail sales continued to accelerate growth in 2014, which achieved a total retail sales of 564 billion 157 million yuan, an increase of about 47.64% over the same period last year.

The emergence of Internet villages and e-commerce villages has changed the existing ecosystem.

According to the current situation, online consumption and online sales will expand further.

Another bright spot in 2014 is the increase in the main body of the registered market, which not only alleviates the pressure of employment, but also reflects the establishment of a new economic cornerstone.

If 2015 data show that these market players are healthy, there is reason to add optimism to the future economy.

Since the implementation of the national commercial system reform, there are more than 10 million registered entities in the country, with an average of more than 10 thousand new registered enterprises per day, and unprecedented wave of entrepreneurship. This is the foundation for the deepening of the new round of market economy.

In the past two years, economic pformation, solid unemployment, employment and consumption stability, commercial system reform and negative list management have been extremely effective.

According to the data of the General Administration of industry and commerce, as of the end of 2013, the number of newly registered enterprises in the country was 2 million 502 thousand and 700, an increase of 27.63% over the previous year, and significant progress has been made.

By the end of 2013, there were 60 million 623 thousand and 800 main market entities, 10.33% higher than the end of last year, and 1.78 percentage points higher than the previous year, the highest in the past 5 years. The registered capital (gold) was 101 trillion and 200 billion yuan (the monetary unit of registered capital of foreign invested enterprises was originally USD, and the number of registered capital in each year was converted to the exchange rate on the basis of data analysis.

By the end of 2013, the data was converted to 6.0969 by the US dollar to the RMB exchange rate, an increase of 18.21%.

These two points are the foundation of China's market economic reform and the harbinger of China's economic pformation.

From 2015, there are three risks to be avoided in addition to continued reform and the continued pformation of the real economy.

The global economy is sluggish, except the United States, Germany and other countries are in the stage of downtrend or recovery fatigue.

Will not eliminate, for China's exports will be a big test.

At present, businessmen who are engaged in Sino Russian trade have got bogged down in the mire.

Because of the weak recovery, all countries

The dispute is endless, and it is a severe challenge for export manufacturing enterprises.

In January 15th, the Swiss central bank's willful intervention led to huge fluctuations.

In January 13th, the first two days before the Swiss central bank changed its face, foreign exchange futures investors bet on the increase of the Swiss Franc to the US dollar to 26 thousand and 444 shares, the Swiss Franc rose sharply, and a large number of hedge funds engaged in foreign exchange trading and even emerging market trading went bankrupt.

In addition to domestic

Han Wei, vice president of China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co, said that the size of the local financing platform debt in 2015 was about 1 trillion and 400 billion yuan. It is estimated that the scale of the issuance of the local government bonds will be 700 billion yuan this year. After the provincial government has issued the local debt, there will be a game process with the municipalities and counties under the jurisdiction of the local government, which will not necessarily be sent to the financing platform in time. This time gap will further cause the financing gap, so the gap of the local government financing platform may reach 1 trillion yuan this year.

This gap must be filled in time.

Export manufacturing decline, exchange rate fluctuations and debt risk are three major risks that must be closely watched in 2015.