Exploring The Annual Expression Of China'S Economy

The National Bureau of statistics issued the economic report on "Shenzhen to the first year" in Beijing 20 days ago, and was deeply concerned by the market at home and abroad. Through a series of "high cold" economic data, Xinhua News Agency reporters tried to capture the expression of China's economy in 2014 in four words: the "joy" of upgrading quality, the "joy" of entrepreneurial innovation, the "worry" of difficult pressure and the "Hope" of "steady progress".

　　 Expression 1: "happiness" in quality improvement

Joy is joy. Ma Jiantang said that in 2014, the national economy maintained a smooth operation under the new normal, showing a good momentum of steady growth, structural optimization, quality improvement and improvement of people's livelihood. Perhaps, we can call it "happy" with steady progress and quality improvement.

Data show that GDP grew by 7.4% year-on-year, with a 7.3% increase in the fourth quarter. Ma Jiantang said that in 2014, China overcame many pressures and challenges to withstand the downward pressure of the economy and achieved a 7.4% growth rate, achieving the goal of growth of about 7.5% set last year.

Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC Greater China, said that although the growth rate of China's economy has slowed down under the new normal, there are still some encouraging "good news": the economic growth rate has been cut down, and the industrial structure has achieved initial success. It has gradually emerged from the over reliance on investment and real estate, and the development trend of emerging industries and emerging service industries is good.

Qu Hongbin pointed out that the third industry has certain advantages in attracting employment. This adjustment of industrial structure brings employment stability, which provides a strong guarantee for China's economic restructuring.

Under the new normal, China's economic structure has been constantly optimized and upgraded, and the third industry and consumption demand have gradually played a leading role. In 2014, China's third industry added value accounted for 48.2% of GDP, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the previous year, which was 5.6 percentage points higher than that of the second industry. Demand structure continued to improve, and the contribution rate of year-end consumer spending to GDP growth was 51.2%, an increase of 3 percentage points over the previous year.

According to the preliminary accounting, China's GDP was 63 trillion and 600 billion yuan last year. If the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was calculated at the end of the year, it would be about $10 trillion and 400 billion, exceeding the US $10 trillion mark. After the United States, China became the second member of the "10 trillion dollar club", ranking second in the world, about two times that of Japan.

Lin Caiyi, chief economist of Guotai Junan, said that GDP broke through 10 trillion dollars earlier than expected in the market. What's more noteworthy is GDP per capita, about $7400, ranking 80 in the world.

Lin Caiyi said, this means that China is still in the middle income country level, and it needs to maintain a relatively high growth rate to get through the so-called "middle income trap". So we need to stimulate market vitality and achieve sustained growth through transformation and innovation and comprehensive deepening reform.

　　 Facial expression two: Entrepreneurship "Happiness" of innovation

Happiness means happiness. Statistics Bureau data show that although the downward pressure on the economy increased in 2014, employment did not decline, but also increased a wave of entrepreneurial innovation. Under the new normal, the gap between urban and rural areas in China has gradually narrowed, and the proportion of residents' income has increased. Under the new normal, China's economy is driven by factors driven, investment driven, innovation driven and consumption driven. This is called "happiness" of entrepreneurial innovation.

Data show that at the end of 2014, there were 393 million urban employment personnel, an increase of 10 million 700 thousand over the same period. At the same time, the income gap between urban and rural residents has been further narrowed. The per capita disposable income of rural residents has increased by 2.4 percentage points faster than that of urban residents, with a double difference of 2.75 per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents, a decrease of 0.06 over the previous year.

Xia Bin, a counselor of the State Council, said that last year, China implemented a series of effective reform measures in decentralization and the development of new industries, and the industrial structure, demand structure and income distribution structure are changing.

Decentralization and the rise of the mobile Internet drive a new wave of entrepreneurship. In Zhongguancun, Zhang Jiang, East Lake and many other science and technology parks, there is a phenomenon of polymerization and entrepreneurship, and entrepreneurship has led to innovation. Entrepreneurs are becoming younger and younger, and venture capital is becoming more and more popular. Venture capital is becoming more and more active. The new wave of entrepreneurship is becoming an important engine for stabilizing economic growth and supporting the new normal.

Ma Jiantang said at the press conference that reform and opening up stimulate the endless enthusiasm for entrepreneurial innovation, which is an inexhaustible driving force for the steady development of China's economy. In 2014, new products, new industries, new formats and new business models with mobile Internet as main contents emerged continuously, and the momentum of China's economy moving towards the middle and high end was obvious.

At the same time, the wave of "industry 4" is leading the deep transformation of manufacturing industry. The pace of China's enterprises going abroad is accelerating, and advanced technologies such as high-speed rail and nuclear power are gaining popularity in the international market. Data show that China's foreign investment amounted to US $102 billion 900 million last year and will soon become a net foreign investment country.

In the second half of 2014, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets also went through a wave of rising prices that had not been seen for many years. The Shanghai Composite Index has risen nearly 53% in the whole year and is thriving in the world's major capital markets.

Lin Caiyi believes that the attractiveness of equity investment is rising. "In addition to the optimistic expectations of market reform, the bottom up of corporate profitability is also an important factor in supporting the stock market to take the bull." She said.

　　 Expression three: the "worry" of difficult stress

Worry is worry and worry. In 2014, China's economy Faced with many challenges and difficulties, including the downturn in the property market, high local debt and overcapacity in industrial production, this is a "worry" for the pressure of economic development.

Ma Jiantang said frankly, "it's not easy" in 2014, encountered many challenges and encountered many difficulties. We must soberly realize that the environment at home and abroad is still rather complicated, and economic development still faces many difficulties and challenges.

Qu Hongbin believes that CPI, PPI and other price indicators continue downward, in fact reflects the downturn in domestic demand, deflation risk will once again test the affordability of China's economy. "Since the second half of last year, international commodity prices, especially crude oil prices have fallen sharply, and their transmission effects on downstream industries may have just begun, which will further exacerbate deflation." He reminded.

Data show that China's consumer price (CPI) increased by 2% last year, and the PPI of industrial producers fell by 2.2%. At the end of last year, CPI continued to descend into the "1" era, while PPI declined for 34 consecutive months.

The real estate market is also at a low ebb. Statistics show that in December 2014, in addition to Xiamen and Zhengzhou, the prices of new housing in 68 cities in 70 large and medium-sized cities declined year-on-year. Real estate investment increased by 10.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped significantly. Last year, real estate investment grew by 10.5% over the previous year, down 9.3 percentage points from the previous year.

Qu Hongbin said that the real estate market has been stabilized after the measures such as the restriction of "purchase restriction" and the relaxation of mortgage loans have been stabilized, but it is hard to see before the mid 2015.

Lin Caiyi believes that in the process of adjusting the economic structure and eliminating excess capacity, the risk of the chain breaking of traditional manufacturing enterprises may increase, which will lead to further fermentation of credit default risk and the possibility of further improvement of the bad debt rate of commercial banks.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced China's economic growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8% in 2015 on the 20 th.

Premier Li Keqiang said at the plenary meeting of the State Council on 19 July that in 2014, the domestic and international environment faced by China's development was complex and severe, and the downward pressure on the economy continued to increase, and multiple difficulties and challenges were intertwined. The downward pressure on the economy in 2015 is still relatively large, and the difficulties it faces may be more, and the government's work is arduous and arduous.

　　 Expression four: "look forward to steady progress"

Hope for expectation and hope. China's economy has great resilience, potential and room for maneuver. It is expected to maintain steady and rapid development in 2015. This is called "looking forward to steady progress".

　　 Ma Jian Tang It is said that the new four modernizations of industrialization, informatization, new urbanization and agricultural modernization are the solid foundation for the steady development of China's economy in the 2015. The Internet has changed the way of human production and life, changed the business mode and financial mode of China, and has great potential, which will bring great impetus to the economy.

This year is the key year for comprehensively deepening reform. Ma Jiantang said that reform is the top gun. As long as we break the shackles and fetters of entrepreneurial innovation, the entrepreneurial enthusiasm of 1 billion 300 million Chinese and more than 900 million labor force will burst out. This is the hope of China's economy.

Qu Hongbin predicted that the reform of financial system, fiscal and taxation system and state owned enterprises will accelerate in the new year.

He said he hoped to see that the budgetary reform would further promote the matching of local governments' financial rights and powers, and at the same time control the risk of local financing platforms and increase the proportion of central transfer payments. On the other hand, the reform of state-owned enterprises' mixed ownership, the introduction of deposit insurance system and the speeding up of offshore RMB center construction are also worth looking forward to.

Lin Caiyi believes that in order to maintain growth momentum, China's economy should also break the "1 mode" which was driven by capital and cheap labor force in the past. By deepening the institutional mechanism innovation and promoting technological innovation, it will step into the era of innovation driven "China's economy 2".

"In order to gain global competitiveness, Chinese enterprises need further institutional improvement, especially the protection of intellectual property rights." Lin Caiyi said. The expert said that China should continue to deepen the reform of investment and financing mechanism, stimulate the enthusiasm of grassroots entrepreneurship through multi-level equity financing market, and provide fertile financial soil for the development of new industries.

The central economic work conference, held in December last year, put forward that understanding the new normal, adapting to the new normal and leading the new normal is the "great logic" of China's economic development in the current and future period.

From this perspective, although China's economic development environment is still more complex and severe, as Ma Jiantang said, there are still many favorable conditions for maintaining steady and rapid development in 2015, or the development of medium and high speed. "We still have great resilience, potential and room for maneuver."

In the face of this 2014 year economic "physical examination form", it may be said that the Chinese economy has taken the expression of "keeping calm and moving forward" into the new voyage of 2015.