Looking Forward To 2015 China'S Future Prospects Of Foreign Trade

Judging from the world situation, from 2011 to 2015, 2015 is the forecast value, the growth rate of world economy and trade, from 2011 to 2014 and the estimated trade next year will be almost the same as that of the economic growth. Even in 2013, our trade growth is not as good as the growth rate of world economy.

This situation is very rare in the past history of world economy and trade. In the past, the growth rate of world trade is much faster than the growth rate of the world economy.

Why is it slowing down? The most important thing is the world economy. Since the financial crisis and the complex crisis in 2008, the world economy has entered a period of great adjustment.

We see that one of the adjustments is

To achieve rebalancing, the United States, with such a large trade deficit, should actively develop advanced manufacturing industries and encourage manufacturing industries to develop in their own countries instead of allowing them to continue to shift overseas.

During his re-election campaign, Obama talked about developing a positive policy in the next term, hoping that the products developed by the company can take root in the United States, and hope that the manufacturing of overseas enterprises will return to the United States as much as possible, so that the employment of the United States can be continuously revived.

This policy has made some progress and made some progress.

But at the same time, we can see that after the peak of world investment in 2007, the growth rate is slowing down. Slowing down means that the speed of industrial pfer to overseas is slowing down.

The pfer slowed down overseas, that is to say, the growth rate of attracting foreign investment in our country has reached the ceiling effect in recent years.

Now that our actual use of foreign capital has slowed down, the growth potential is very small and the growth rate has been narrowed, the export growth of our country's foreign trade has been driven by foreign enterprises in the past. And now that foreign-funded enterprises come to China, especially the manufacturing industry, they come to China.

In slowing down and falling, our country's foreign investment driven export has also greatly reduced this part of the effect, and the slowdown in trade growth has become a major factor.

We are all concerned about the extent to which commodity prices fall. Many people ask me, I would like to report to you.

The last commodity price cycle started in 2002 and ended in the summer of 2008.

At that time, the price of crude oil was marked up to $147 a barrel.

This is a long period of rising from $12 to $147.

Why is there such a long price increase? First of all, the US dollar has entered a long period of decline.

In 2002, the US dollar index fell to 76 for the 1202010 year US dollar index. We can see that the drop is very large.

During this period, the rise of China's economy is not only a fast development, but also a fast development.

The scale of the scale has been huge, and it has increased rapidly, which has created enormous demand for world resources.

China's capacity to increase the world's resources has roughly absorbed 50%, all to meet the needs of China's economy.

Because of this large amount of absorption, the world's resources and energy prices continue to rise rapidly.

China's economy has ended like the previous period of rapid growth. China's economy is entering a new normal in the future. How fast is this new normal growth rate? Everyone has everyone's understanding and understanding.

That is to say, if we compare and see that Japan and Korea are in the middle speed growth stage of 4% to 6%, if China takes into account the relatively large scale, the great disparity in the eastern, central and western regions and the growth potential, China may still grow a bit taller.

If according to Professor Yifu Lin of Peking University, he thought that the ideal can achieve 8% growth rate, everyone's understanding is different, I think it is possible that the level of 4-6%.

Such a long-term level, the world economy, the demand for resources, compared with the previous big gap.

In any case, the reduction of carbon emissions in the future world is a hard constraint.

The hard constraint of carbon emissions means that no matter how crude oil prices fall, if we can generate carbon emissions, we will have to reduce.

That is to say, under this hard constraint situation, the sensitivity to price may be weaker and weaker.

Crude oil prices are falling, and we can no longer rely on petrol consumption growth.

That is to say, in the medium to long term, or even further, the trend of commodity prices will be a long-term downward trend as demand gradually decreases.

How long is the long-term trend? I think the next major impact on the world economy may be India, and the economic gap between India and China is about ten years.

Ten years later, if India's economy is developing smoothly and its demand for world resources will also play a role in China in the next ten years, the world's commodity prices will probably have a new upward trend.

Without such a development factor such as India, the recovery of world commodity prices is still hopeless.