Domestic And Foreign Financial Market Turmoil Is Unprecedented.

This year, gold prices and U.S. long-term treasury bonds have been strongest, gold prices have risen by 9.5%, and the US Treasury bond ETF has risen by 7.1% over the past 20 years, far exceeding the 8% decline in the US Standard & Poor's 500 index.

What does this mean? It means that the international market is worried about the economic outlook this year.

International funds are flowing into hedge.

Because treasury bonds and gold are hedging tools, when investment is concerned that there is a problem in the economic outlook, they may withdraw from high-risk assets and choose hedging tools.

More subtle is that the current rise in gold prices is more obvious than the Swiss Franc from the euro.

The Swiss central bank announced that the Swiss Franc "off Europe" also immediately pushed the price of gold from $1226 to $1282, up by 4.6%.

So far, gold has risen by 1292 dollars.

The Swiss Franc away from the euro will immediately lead to a rise in gold prices, which may be related to the most important hedge currency in the Swiss Franc world.

Because if today

A large depreciation of the euro is unavoidable if the policy of large scale moduli is started as expected.

Under such circumstances, the Swiss franc, which has risen sharply, will no longer be a safe haven for international funds to seek appreciation.

At this time, we can find other currencies, such as the Swiss franc, and the Asian currencies such as the yen, the won and the new Taiwan dollar have begun to rise. International funds may flow into these currencies or flow into gold, causing gold prices to rise.

More importantly, from the perspective of historical data, in recent decades,

Major fluctuations are often related to Switzerland.

For example, the Swiss gold referendum was rejected in November 7, 2014, and the price of gold fell to a low level of more than 4 years for 1130 dollars before rebounding sharply.

Similarly, more than 3 years ago, in September 6, 2011, gold prices hit a record high of $1932. On the same day, the Swiss central bank introduced a ceiling of exchange rate, that is, a euro should not be higher than 1.2 in exchange for Swiss francs.

The price of the Swiss franc is pegged to the euro, and the gold price in the international market has entered a long-term adjustment period.

Also, in April 1999, the Swiss referendum approved the end of the link between gold and the Swiss franc, while the SNB announced that it would sell 1300 tons.

Half of it.

And other European countries' central banks also follow the reduction of gold reserves, and the price of gold in the international market has dropped to a low of 250 US dollars.

In September of that year, the European countries signed the "Washington Accord" to restrict gold sales, thus preventing the long bear market of gold.

Are these events coincidental or intrinsic market linkages?

If there is an inherent market link, is the Swiss Franc divorced from the euro and the beginning of a gold price rise? This question is worth thinking about by investors and more worthy of close attention by investors.

In fact, the Swiss central bank's policy change is only a symptom of the global market. From the perspective of the central bank's implementation policy in the global market, the Central Bank of the world is taking another round of quantitative and wide monetary policy besides the Federal Reserve (that is, the broad monetary policy is tightening).

This is the case with the European Central Bank.

And recently, the Bank of England's Committee has consistently passed low interest rates, and even two hardworking members have no objection.

That is to say, the low interest rate policy in Britain will continue for some time.

Not only did the Central Bank of China and the Bank of India cut interest rates by one yard earlier, but Danish banks lowered interest rates to negative ones, and the Canadian Central Bank, which did not change interest rates for more than 5 years, also cut interest rates by one yard in January 21st.

What do these phenomena illustrate? First, since the 2008 financial crisis in the United States, most countries in the world have not been out of the woods until now, and the problems they face are more and more, and the more they can not be solved.

Therefore, central banks all hope to save the economy through the overly loose monetary policy, so as to enable the economies of all countries to get out of the current predicament.

Two, the US financial crisis in 2008 has been more than 6 years ago. Although many central banks around the world are taking excessive monetary policy to save the economy, many countries' economic problems have not been solved.

What is more serious is whether this means that the new global financial crisis is about to break out.

It can be said that since the advent of the financial market, any excessive credit expansion and over use of financial markets and tools have not triggered a financial crisis. Can this unprecedented global credit expansion be excepted? Will the global financial crisis not erupt? If it breaks out, will it happen in 2015? Three, why are other emerging market economic problems such as Russia, Canada and China recently exposed, which are largely related to exchange rates, oil prices and excessive use of single resources. Can these problems be solved through monetary policy? These are the problems that will cause global market turmoil and even lead to economic crises in some countries.

Therefore, the international market funds have to choose gold as a hedge.

This will naturally lead to a rise in the price of gold.

However, how much gold prices can rise this year should be rather uncertain, and investors should be cautious.

Because gold has long been financial, and it can also have a huge price shock.